Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190007 CCA AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 707 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure continues to move farther offshore and gradually strengthens through tonight. Meanwhile weak high pressure will build from the west tonight into Thursday, and settle overhead Thursday night into early Friday. A weakening frontal system will approach Friday night into Saturday, and then dissipate. Deepening low pressure will approach from the southwest from Sunday into Monday while a gradually strengthening high builds into the Canadian Maritimes. The low will continue to approach Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A northern stream shortwave will pass through tonight, with sufficient forcing to cause some spotty light rain or drizzle (freezing rain or drizzle where temps are at or below 32). Confidence in freezing drizzle is too low at this point to issue an SPS (not sure of timing of precipitation with temperatures falling too/below freezing across the interior). However, best forcing looks like it will miss NE NJ/NYC zones, so went with a dry forecast there. There should be some patchy fog across most of the area as well, this also could freeze in areas falling to/below freezing. Cloudy conditions and elevated winds on the backside of the departing low will inhibit stronger radiational cooling, with low temperatures in the upper 20s to upper 30s expected to be around 10-15 degrees above climatological normals.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... With the low pressure moving farther offshore and high pressure building in, flow will gradually turn more northwesterly advecting drier air into the area and allowing the stratus to finally erode. Sunny conditions are expected by late morning, with subtle downslope flow aiding in temperatures rising into the mid 40s to lower 50s, around 10 degrees above climatological normals. Apart from any light drizzle in the morning, the remainder of the day should be dry. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure system will move northeastward into the Great Lakes region on Friday, pushing a weakening frontal system across the area Friday night into early Saturday. Precipitation amounts will be light with this system. High temperatures Friday will be in the low to mid 40s. Lows Friday night will be in the mid to upper 30s. A weak boundary will remain overhead for Saturday, but ridging overhead should allow for dry conditions across most areas through the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s and mid to upper 40s on Sunday. Lows Saturday and Sunday night will generally be in the mid to upper 30s. A stronger frontal system approaches late Sunday into early next week. At this time it does look like this system will bring to the area a soaking rain Sunday into Monday. There is the potential of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with this system from Sunday afternoon into Monday night. The low will slowly pull away from the area by the middle of next week. Temperatures Monday through the middle of the week will remain above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure works in from the west. The theme will be gradual improvement through tonight as widespread MVFR cigs early this evening lift to VFR overnight. Fog possible late tonight outside of the city terminals. N-NW winds under 10 kt tonight. For Thursday, VFR with NW winds under 10 KT. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving flight categories. KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving flight categories. KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving flight categories. KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving flight categories. KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving flight categories. KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of improving flight categories. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday night-Friday...VFR. .Friday night...Chance of MVFR or lower in -RA. .Saturday-Saturday night...VFR. .Sunday...Chance of MVFR of lower in -RA, with best chance at CT/Long Island Terminals. .Monday...Chance of IFR with heavy rain and strong E-NE winds. && .MARINE... Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track. Increasing northerly-northwesterly flow between the departing surface low and building high pressure will maintain 5+ ft seas on the ocean waters through the night. Gusts to 25kt are expected tonight, but will gradually decrease by morning with seas slowly subsiding by Thursday evening. Below small craft advisory conditions Friday through early Sunday. Saturday. Small craft advisory conditions are possible on the ocean waters Sunday afternoon, and for all waters on Monday, with the approach of the next storm. Gales may be possible on the ocean Monday afternoon/evening, and ocean seas could reach 6-11 ft Sunday night into early next week as an easterly fetch sets up. && .HYDROLOGY... As a frontal system moves slowly across the hydrologic service area Sunday into the middle of next week it could bring a significant rainfall of one to two inches. There is the potential for some minor flooding. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/JM NEAR TERM...MD/Maloit SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...DW MARINE...Goodman/Maloit/JM HYDROLOGY...Goodman/JM

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