Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 240712 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 312 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build in from the north today, remain over the region through the weekend, then drift offshore on Monday. A cold front will impact the region toward the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Dense fog continues to linger across Long Island. The dense fog advisory will therefore remain in effect until 8 am. Outside of the top of the fog bank, only high clouds were over the county warning area. These will continue to exit per the latest satellite observations. Low level moisture attempts to pool from New Jersey northward into the Hudson Valley due to weak onshore flow this afternoon. This will enhance surface based instability. The models suggest some showers will break out in these areas as a result, but the models have been too sensitive when inducing convection, so when coupled with synoptic scale subsidence, the forecast has been kept dry. A combination of the MAV, MET and Superblend was used for temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area, but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow, particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET. Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s. A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this front. Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure builds back over the region.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure builds to the north through Friday. IFR conditions in fog early this morning at KISP. This should generally be confined to southern and eastern Long Island terminals, but these lower conditions may work into KJFK for a few hours early this morning. Any fog should begin to lift around 10Z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the day on Friday. Light and variable winds to start will become north/northeast with speeds increasing to around 10 kt towards 12Z Friday morning. Winds veer to the east, then more southeast during the afternoon. South coastal terminals are more likely to see southeast winds sooner during the afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR. .Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late. .Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE...
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High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ078>081. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...FEB/JE/NV MARINE...BC/JMC HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC

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