Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231017 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 617 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WINDS HAVE FINALLY FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS IN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND COASTAL CT...THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVSY TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM. GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WON`T BE AS STRONG AS LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS S OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFINED IT TO THE AREA ACROSS EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING. NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE IN THE DAY FRI. WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE NEW WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE LOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED AND ARE NOT INCLUDED IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5 KFT...THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING. WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND NYC TERMINALS. .FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN SHOWERS. W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .MONDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW GALE FORCE LEVELS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED THESE ZONES TO AN SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE. MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT RANGE FROM 1/3 INCH FROM THE NYC METRO TO 2/3 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A FEW TIDAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND THOSE BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TOUCHED OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDED THEIR MINOR BENCHMARKS LAST EVENING. KINGS POINT EXPERIENCED A ROUGE TIDAL SURGE OF 3 1/2 FT SHORTLY AFTER HIGH TIDE WHEN THE WINDS PEAKED AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUND. THIS RESULTED IN THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO REACH 10.2 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT HIGHER WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND ARE BACKING TO THE NW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THEIR MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS. ITS A CLOSE CALL THOUGH...AND A FEW PLACES MAY TOUCH AGAIN...THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 FT IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND 1 TO 1 1/4 FT IN WESTERN LI SOUND.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$

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