Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KOKX 240658
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
258 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016
A cold front continues moving south of the area early this
morning. Strong high pressure then builds in from south-central
Canada Saturday through Sunday night, then slides offshore Monday.
A cold front will slowly pass through Tuesday into Thursday. High
pressure will return for the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Cold front has moved south of the area as of midnight with
northerly winds now reported at all sites. Showers behind the
front are moving across NE NJ and the NYC metro as well as across
SE CT. No shower activity in between these locations. Have seen a
few lightning strikes across NE NJ, so have included isolated
thunder. Pops increased to categorical across the NYC metro and
will continue with likely across far E CT. Without much moisture
source to draw from, rainfall amounts should remain below a
quarter of an inch. Lift and moisture decrease after 07-08z so
PoPs lowered to just slight chance.
Temperatures tonight will fall into the middle and upper 50s
across the Lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut. Further south,
across NYC, Northeast NJ and Long Island, lows will fall into the
upper 50s and lower 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Strong high pressure builds into the region behind the cold
front. A northerly flow will allow for cooler and drier
conditions through the short term. Expect mostly clear skies with
temperatures at or a few degrees below normal. High temperatures
on Saturday will only reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. With dew
points gradually falling through the day into the 40s, it will
feel like fall. Saturday night, clear skies and fairly light winds
will allow lows to fall into the 40s, across the entire region,
other than NYC where lows will reach the low to mid 50s. I would
not be surprised if a few outlying areas fell into the upper 30s
late Saturday night.
There is a borderline moderate to high risk for rip current
development at ocean beaches on Saturday...mainly due to se long
period swells of 3 to 4 ft. Highest threat will be for permanent
rips on east sides of groins...jetties...and piers.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure across the northeast Sunday, will keep the area dry
with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and lows Sunday night
in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the NYC metro area and in the low
to mid 40s elsewhere.
The high will move offshore, allowing a cold front to approach the
area Monday before slowly passing through Tuesday into Wednesday and
lingering near the area through Thursday. A southerly flow ahead of
the front will likely bring plenty of clouds across the area along
with a few showers Monday night. There are still timing
uncertainties with the frontal passage for the middle of the week,
with some guidance bringing it through on Tuesday and other guidance
holding off until Wednesday. Will keep chance pops at this time on
Tuesday with slight chance pop on Wednesday and Thursday. High
pressure will build in for Friday.
Temperatures for the long term period will start out below normal on
Monday, then generally run within a few degrees of either side of
normal from Monday night through Friday.
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Canadian high pressure builds in through the weekends.
Showers, over Long Island and SE CT as of 07Z, will be off shore
by sunrise and MVFR CIGs will scatter by mid morning from north to
south. All areas become VFR by AFTN with a northerly flow.
.Outlook for 06Z Sunday through Wednesday...
.MON NGT...VFR with possible showers developing.
.TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers at times.
.WED...Any showers end. VFR.
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The pressure gradient increases tonight, and remains fairly tight
into Saturday. This coupled with cold advection behind a passing
cold front tonight, should bring gusts to around 25 kt on all
waters after midnight.
Frequent gusts to 25 kt are likely to subside by around sunrise,
so ending SCA conds on the non-ocean zones at 10z. However, the
gusty winds combined with a SE swell should produce seas to around
5 ft across the coastal ocean waters through the day on Saturday.
The gradient lightens Saturday night with Sub-SCA conditions
Seas and waves are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory
conditions Sunday through the middle of the week.
Less than a quarter of an inch of rain tonight/early Saturday.
Otherwise, it will be mainly dry through Saturday night.
An approaching cold front will move across the hydrologic service
area during the middle of the week. Precipitation amounts should
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-