Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 240658 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 258 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front continues moving south of the area early this morning. Strong high pressure then builds in from south-central Canada Saturday through Sunday night, then slides offshore Monday. A cold front will slowly pass through Tuesday into Thursday. High pressure will return for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Cold front has moved south of the area as of midnight with northerly winds now reported at all sites. Showers behind the front are moving across NE NJ and the NYC metro as well as across SE CT. No shower activity in between these locations. Have seen a few lightning strikes across NE NJ, so have included isolated thunder. Pops increased to categorical across the NYC metro and will continue with likely across far E CT. Without much moisture source to draw from, rainfall amounts should remain below a quarter of an inch. Lift and moisture decrease after 07-08z so PoPs lowered to just slight chance. Temperatures tonight will fall into the middle and upper 50s across the Lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut. Further south, across NYC, Northeast NJ and Long Island, lows will fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Strong high pressure builds into the region behind the cold front. A northerly flow will allow for cooler and drier conditions through the short term. Expect mostly clear skies with temperatures at or a few degrees below normal. High temperatures on Saturday will only reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. With dew points gradually falling through the day into the 40s, it will feel like fall. Saturday night, clear skies and fairly light winds will allow lows to fall into the 40s, across the entire region, other than NYC where lows will reach the low to mid 50s. I would not be surprised if a few outlying areas fell into the upper 30s late Saturday night. There is a borderline moderate to high risk for rip current development at ocean beaches on Saturday...mainly due to se long period swells of 3 to 4 ft. Highest threat will be for permanent rips on east sides of groins...jetties...and piers. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure across the northeast Sunday, will keep the area dry with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and lows Sunday night in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the NYC metro area and in the low to mid 40s elsewhere. The high will move offshore, allowing a cold front to approach the area Monday before slowly passing through Tuesday into Wednesday and lingering near the area through Thursday. A southerly flow ahead of the front will likely bring plenty of clouds across the area along with a few showers Monday night. There are still timing uncertainties with the frontal passage for the middle of the week, with some guidance bringing it through on Tuesday and other guidance holding off until Wednesday. Will keep chance pops at this time on Tuesday with slight chance pop on Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure will build in for Friday. Temperatures for the long term period will start out below normal on Monday, then generally run within a few degrees of either side of normal from Monday night through Friday. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Canadian high pressure builds in through the weekends. Showers, over Long Island and SE CT as of 07Z, will be off shore by sunrise and MVFR CIGs will scatter by mid morning from north to south. All areas become VFR by AFTN with a northerly flow. .Outlook for 06Z Sunday through Wednesday... .SUN-MON...VFR. .MON NGT...VFR with possible showers developing. .TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers at times. .WED...Any showers end. VFR.
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&& .MARINE... The pressure gradient increases tonight, and remains fairly tight into Saturday. This coupled with cold advection behind a passing cold front tonight, should bring gusts to around 25 kt on all waters after midnight. Frequent gusts to 25 kt are likely to subside by around sunrise, so ending SCA conds on the non-ocean zones at 10z. However, the gusty winds combined with a SE swell should produce seas to around 5 ft across the coastal ocean waters through the day on Saturday. The gradient lightens Saturday night with Sub-SCA conditions expected. Seas and waves are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday through the middle of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Less than a quarter of an inch of rain tonight/early Saturday. Otherwise, it will be mainly dry through Saturday night. An approaching cold front will move across the hydrologic service area during the middle of the week. Precipitation amounts should be light. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/Fig NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...Tongue AVIATION...JC MARINE...BC/Fig HYDROLOGY...BC/Fig

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