Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 270857 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 457 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON FRI...AND SETS UP OVER THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRES MAY BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES REMAINS THROUGH TODAY WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING AS A RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOES BUILD IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE CLEARING OCCURRING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SLOW CLEARING WILL COMBINE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW DRIFTS EAST. THE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. INLAND AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS AROUND FREEZING. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS FROST FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. WITH AREAS OF FROST HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE WEAK RIDGE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY WEAKENS AS A SHEARING SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...A LITTLE FASTER THEN THE NAM...AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS WILL BRING IN SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS STILL PROGGED TO GET INTO THE CWA THU NGT...THEN RESIDUAL SHRTWV ENERGY FROM THE MASSIVE H5 LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MAY SWING THRU ON FRI. CONFIDENCE IN THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES PLAYING OUT AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IS STILL FAIRLY LOW...SO KEPT POPS GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 RANGE. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN ON SAT. PER THE GFS...IT LOOKS LIKE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE MAIN 1035 HIGH OVER CANADA ATTEMPTS TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LGT RAIN OR SPRINKLES SAT NGT AND/OR SUN. THE ECMWF HOWEVER CONTINUES TO HAVE NO PART OF THIS...AND INSTEAD KEEPS IT DRY OVER THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. ADDED A MINIMAL POP FOR SHWRS SAT NGT AND SUN BASED ON GFS CONSISTENCY. THE MODELS THEREAFTER CONTINUE THEIR DIVERGENCE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS LOW PRES TRACKING JUST OFF THE DELMARVA SUN NGT...S OF LI MON...AND INTO THE MARITIMES TUE. THE GFS KEEPS LOW PRES S OF THE REGION AND THE CWA COMPLETELY DRY. THE PREV FCST HAD RELATIVELY HIGH CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...SEEMINGLY IN LINE WITH THE PREV ECMWF. THIS FCST MAINTAINS CONSISTENCY AND FOLLOWS THE 00Z ECMWF. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE FOR SOME WET FLAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYS...PARTICULARLY THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR CT. TEMPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND THRU THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME CIGS LINGERING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING JUST ABOVE 3KFT FOR SOME TERMINALS WITH IFR/MVFR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KSWF. WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED AFTER 11Z. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL BE CLOSER TO 10 KT IN SPEED BY THAT TIME. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO A NE FLOW BETWEEN 5-10 KT LATE TONIGHT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF CEILINGS BETWEEN 3100-3500 FT COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF CEILINGS BETWEEN 3100-3500 FT COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF CEILINGS BETWEEN 3100-3500 FT COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF CEILINGS BETWEEN 3100-3500 FT COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF CEILINGS BETWEEN 3100-3500 FT COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF CEILINGS BETWEEN 3100-3500 FT COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR THU AM. THEN MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN THEREAFTER. .FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. .SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SEAS...5 TO 6 FEET...REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 800 AM. WITH THE WINDS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS...SEAS MAY FALL BELOW 5 FEET BEFORE THE END OF THE ADVISORY. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY BLW SCA LVLS THU NGT THRU SUN. EXCEPTION ATTM IS FRI-SAT ON THE OCEAN...WHERE PERSISTENT ENELY FLOW COULD BUILD SEAS INTO THE 4-6FT RANGE. IF LOW PRES TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION MON-TUE...SCA COND WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... LESS THAN A 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS FCST LATE THU THRU FRI. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF LOW PRES TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE HSA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>012. NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ067-068- 070-079-081. NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ002. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JM MARINE...JMC/MET HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.