Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 271746 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE FURTHER REDUCED CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THIS UPDATE...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NUDGED HIGH TEMP FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST SPOTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS MOSTLY 25-30. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR SKY. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND FOR SOME SUBURBAN AREAS...CALM AT TIMES. THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO FOR SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-15. BECAUSE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IN THE CITY...WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO SPS PLANNED FOR THE CITY. FOR SATURDAY...SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY 00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTS AND CITY BY DARK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 320-020 TRUE (330-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-010 TRUE (320-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE (340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. .SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX S TERMINALS AND -SN N TERMINALS. SE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR LATE WEDNESDAY. LLWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC/JMC LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JMC/FIG HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.