Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 200011 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 811 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI- STATE FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US OVERNIGHT. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL KEEP A COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS CLEAR AND DRY. BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS DROP INTO UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL TRACK EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW. THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CLOSER TO THE COAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. LOWS IN THE NYC METRO AREA WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 40. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO START THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MID WEEK AS PAC AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASE. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVOLUTION...BUT MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. A GOOD BIT OF SENSITIVITY WITH THIS INTERACTION APPEARS TO LIE IN THE PAC SHORTWAVE/RIDGE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED STARTING BY TOMORROW MORNING. THESE DIFFERENCES ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION TUE NIGHT. OVERALL LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TUES NIGHT. AMOUNT OF PRECIP WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH SHOULD CLARIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY TAPERS OFF WED MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WED AFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AS IT BUILDS ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THE STRENGTH AND PROGRESSIVENESS OF THIS ENERGY...AS PATTERN BECOMES MORE BLOCKY IN NATURE. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW MON AND TUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WED WITH INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOT OF CAA...BUT THEN A MODERATING TREND TO SEASONABLE AND THEN ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A MODERATING AIRMASS. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LATE AFTN SEABREEZE DEVELOPED AT KJFK AND WAS HEADING TOWARDS KEWR...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT TO THE AIRFIELD. SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 10 KT. N/NE SYNOPTIC FLOW EXPECTED TO REGAIN CONTROL BY 01Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMES SE ON SUN. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUN NIGHT-TUE MORNING...VFR. .TUE AFTN-WED MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE LATE TUE AFTN/WED MORNING. .WED AFTN...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW-N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .WED NIGHT-THU...VFR. NW-N WIND G15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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A MODERATELY TIGHT NE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL SCA GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS AND OCEAN SEAS TUES NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA WIND GUSTS ON ALL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA THU INTO THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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A DRY SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT. NE/SE WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WITH DRY FINE FUELS...THIS WILL POSE ANOTHER DAY WITH POTENTIAL RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. WE WILL MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVE WHICH WOULD POINT AGAINST SIGNIFICANT RAIN. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350- 353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/NV NEAR TERM...BC/NV SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION... MARINE...BC/NV FIRE WEATHER...NV HYDROLOGY...BC/NV

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