Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 142141 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 441 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY TUESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR NEXT SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...IF NOT CALM...SHOULD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WEIGHED TOWARDS THE LOWEST GIVEN VALUE AT ANY GIVEN POINT...TO REFLECT THAT GUIDANCE OFTEN UNDER DOES THE EXTENT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CONSENSUS IS GROWING THAT THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 700-500 HPA TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WILL TRACK TO THE WEST...THEN NNW OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY MORNING/MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THAT THIS SNOW WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN...THEN RAIN MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...WHERE THE TRANSITION COULD BE DIRECTLY TO RAIN. CURRENTLY FORECASTING 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW...FOLLOWED BY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FOR INTERIOR S CT/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND W PASSAIC AND BERGEN COUNTIES. A GLAZE OF ICE...ALONG WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW (HIGHEST TOTALS W OF GARDEN STATE PARKWAY) FOR COASTAL S CT...MOST OF NE NJ...AND NASSAU/S WESTCHESTER AND W SUFFOLK COUNTIES. EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO RAIN TO BE DONE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THIS SOUTHERN GROUP. EXPECT UP TO 1" OF SNOW OVER E SUFFOLK...WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN MONDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM 1PM MONDAY- 7AM TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER...1 PM MONDAY- MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER GROUPING...WITH NO HEADLINES FOR E SUFFOLK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THEN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR POSSIBLE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS. ALSO WITH A 55-70 KT 950-850 HPA JET...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP INTO THE WARM SECTOR THE AREA GETS. GUSTS NEAR THE COASTS/HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD BE IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE...WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW GUSTY THE WINDS WILL BE...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE WORKING AGAINST A LIKELY LOW LEVEL INVERSION. EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORMS EXACT TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING. FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WAS WEIGHED TOWARDS THE LOWEST VALUE AT ANY GIVEN GRIDPOINT TO REFLECT THE IMPACT OF COLD AIR DAMMING...WHICH IS OFTEN UNDER DONE IN GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE NEAR THE HIGHS FOR MONDAY...WITH AN AROUND 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR N A COASTAL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...GUIDANCE OFTEN UNDER DOES HOW FAR N IT GETS IN SITUATIONS LIKE THESE. AS A RESULT...DID BLEND IN A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA ALONG WITH NAM AND GFS 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONCE AGAIN DEPENDING ON THE COASTAL FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THOUGH AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE APPROACHES. A BRIEF DRY GAP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE POPS ARE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION N/W OF NYC MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS WHILE ACROSS NYC AND COAST...THEY ARE RAIN SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE POPS ARE ONLY AT MOST 30 PERCENT DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BEHIND THAT FOR NEXT SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THEY TREND ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON MON AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS S OF THE AREA. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVE WITH LIGHT AND VRB FLOW OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME E MON AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. VFR THRU TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS MON MORNING...THEN BECOMES HEAVIER AFT 18Z. MVFR OR LOWER WITH THE SNOW. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY...SNOW DEVELOPS THRU THE DAY. RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. E/ESE FLOW GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT. MVFR OR LOWER. .MONDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER. SNOW CHANGES TO A MIX THEN RAIN AT THE COASTS...AND TO A MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SE FLOW AT OR BELOW 10KT. .TUESDAY...IFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN. SLY WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30KT SUSTAINED. LLWS WITH 50KT BELOW 1500FT. .WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 10-20KT. .THU...VFR WITH NW FLOW 10-20KT. .FRI...VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
GUSTS TO 25 KT WERE PERSISTING AT 44017...SO LEFT UP THE SCA E OF MORICHES INLET UNTIL 6 PM. HOWEVER GIVEN THE WARMER WATER THERE...CURRENTLY REPORTING ONLY LIGHT ICING AT 44017...SO CANCELED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY THERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES SLACK OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTS OF 25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND E SOUND/BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT OR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS ON TUESDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR GALE GUSTS IN THE HWO. POSSIBLE LINGERING GALES ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY EVENING WITH OTHERWISE LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS. THE SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF FOR NON-OCEAN WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS FOR THE OCEAN. FOR THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SCA IS POSSIBLE. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ON MONDAY MORNING. THEN FROM 1 TO 1 3/4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ALSO...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS DUE TO STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACT STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH. EVEN WITH SOME OF THIS INITIALLY GOING TO SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WARMING EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...EXPECT ALMOST ALL OF THIS TO END UP BEING REALIZED AS LIQUID WATER EVENTUALLY...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS N/W OF NYC WHERE SOME SNOW COULD LINGER. AS RESULT...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT IS FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. HOWEVER...WITH THE GROUND INITIALLY FROZEN...SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE LIKELY WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG FLASHY SMALL STREAMS ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FOR AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. TUESDAY NIGHT...ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERNS ARE FOR ANY RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE DUE TO RESIDUAL RUNOFF. RESIDUAL MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH NO OTHER ISSUES ANTICIPATED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS WITH THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE DUE TO STRONG SE FLOW. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK TO THE SE TOO LATE TO BRING COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS DURING THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THERE STILL EXISTS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 1/2 TO 3 FT ARE NEEDED TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE BACK SHORE BAYS ALONG THE S COAST OF NYC/W LONG ISLAND...W PORTIONS OF THE LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND STATEN ISLAND GIVEN THE SE FLOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS...RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED. HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS... STATION......RECORD LOW MAXIMUM(YEAR)/HIGH SO FAR FOR 2/14 CENTRAL PARK....17 (1979) / 15 LAGUARDIA.......15 (1979) / 16 KENNEDY.........17 (1979) / 17 ISLIP...........26 (1987) / 13 NEWARK..........15 (1979) / 17 BRIDGEPORT......18 (1979) / 13
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ005>008. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ009>012. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>070. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ002-103. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ004-006-104>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...JMC MARINE...MALOIT/JM HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.