Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 301733 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 133 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...SENDING A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE WERE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. DEWPOINTS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS WELL ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. POPS WERE KEPT AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF NYC. MESOSCALE MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION WITH HRRR MODEL SHOWING RELATIVELY MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN BETWEEN...A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY FILL...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AS A SFC TROF OR WARM FRONT... PRECEDED BY WEAK THERMAL FORCING. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON INLAND AND PARTY SUNNY AT THE COAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST...TO AROUND 90 INLAND. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AFOREMENTIONED TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW TO SE BY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD ON MON WITH WARMING TEMP PROFILES ALOFT AND A GUSTY W/SW FLOW IN THE AFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUN...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NOT MUCH RELIEF THOUGH FOR TUE WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO SHAVED OFF OF MON HIGHS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND...TO 70 TO 75 NYC METRO. THESE READINGS ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. WINDS BRIEFLY GO NW TUE MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN RETURN FROM THE S BY AFT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES NEARBY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PUT A CAP ON ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST MERGES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THU POSSIBLY FRI. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE H5 FLOW DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE EXCEPTION FRI/SAT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN/THROUGH THE AREA. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH 95 DEGREES IN NYC THROUGH WED.
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&& .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO MONDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SEABREEZES ON TRACK FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF/KTEB AND PROBABLY KEWR. ALREADY THROUGH CT TERMINALS/KISP/KJFK. QUESTION IS TIMING FOR REMAINDER OF TERMINALS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE AT NYC METRO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WINDS BECOME SW AT UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WSW- WNW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING- EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AT KJFK TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH AT KSWF TO REFLECT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WSW-W WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON. .THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES PROBABLE. .THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. .FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR. E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. ISOLATED- SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE LATE AFT/EARLY EVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SW FLOW FROM THE NY BIGHT EAST ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE COASTAL LOCALES INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW NEAR TERM...JM/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...DW/24 AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JM/DW/24 HYDROLOGY...DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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