Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 232036 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 436 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN COVERED THE TRI-STATE REGION AS OF LATE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES IN THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. GIVEN THE WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT...WENT WITH LOW TEMPS A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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THURSDAY... A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT... DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AROUND NEW YORK CITY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. DECENT SHOT AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS 6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK BACK UP AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES. THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR. .SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR. .SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT. .MON...VFR
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&& .MARINE...
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NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT. AFTER COORDINATING WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS HAVE UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ002>004- 006-074-103>108. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340- 345-350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK MARINE...FRANK FIRE WEATHER...FRANK HYDROLOGY...FRANK

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