Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251148 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 748 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build over the area through Wednesday before moving offshore Wednesday night. A warm front will lift toward the area late Thursday, followed by low pressure and a cold front on Friday. High pressure will build across this weekend before another low passes to the south early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Clouds will linger today as a weak low passes to the south and east. Upper trough could kick off a light shower or two, per high res models, along with NWP runs. Otherwise, expect cool conditions with high temperatures in the upper 60s/lower 70s as high pressure builds to the north and ENE flow persists. There remains a high risk of rip currents at ocean beaches through today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure will provide another unseasonably cool night with clearing skies. Low temperatures overnight will be in the mid/upper 50s inland and lower 60s along the coast. The high will remain in control on Wednesday before pushing offshore Wednesday night. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the mid/upper 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper level shortwave that is expected to dive out of central Canada, the Great Lakes region, then across the area Friday into Saturday, will need to be watched as global models differ on strength of this feature. Across eastern Canada, cutoff low develops this weekend, with lingering trough extending across the northeast states. As the weekend progresses, this low moves northeast. At the surface, high pressure to the east gives way to a weak warm front late Thursday. Sfc low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley Thursday, then toward the mid Atlantic coast early Friday. Due to differences aloft in the models, placement of sfc low, and strength of the low differs somewhat. At this time, it appears that consensus would place the low just to our south, along a cold frontal boundary Friday. This low moves east by Saturday, as high pressure builds from the west/northwest. This high should remain in control Saturday through Monday. As for sensible weather, shower chances increase late Thursday, with the best chance for showers, possible thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Still uncertainty with this system, but there is the potential for significant rainfall. Thereafter, dry conditions prevail. Do not foresee large temperatures differences/swings, with near normal readings anticipated. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Weak low pressure will pass to the south today along a stationary front. High pressure will begin to build in from the north tonight into Tuesday. IFR cigs that were in place at KEWR/KTEB/KSWF should improve to VFR by 13Z-14Z. Otherwise, MVFR cigs should last until about midday at KBDR/KGON and until about 21Z-22Z elsewhere. Winds should be ENE to NE 10 kt or less. There is a chance they could go E-ESE at KBDR and SE at KGON this afternoon. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: AMD likely to fine tune changes in flight category. The haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility more than 6SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: AMD likely to fine tune changes in flight category. The haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility more than 6SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: AMD likely to fine tune changes in flight category. The haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility more than 6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: AMD likely to fine tune changes in flight category. KHPN TAF Comments: AMD likely to fine tune changes in flight category. KISP TAF Comments: AMD likely to fine tune changes in flight category. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Wednesday...VFR. .Thursday...MVFR conds possible, with chance of showers and possibly a tstm. .Thursday night and Friday...MVFR or lower conds possible, with a chance of showers and tstms, as low pressure passes by. Confidence is low on exact timing and placement of any heavier rain and tstms. Heavier rain appears more likely to pass just to the south Fri morning, but it is too early to be certain. Worst case would be a high impact event for the AM push. .Friday night...mainly VFR. .Saturday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Small craft conditions expected across ocean waters through this evening, primarily for seas. High pressure builds across the area waters on Wednesday. High pressure departs Wednesday night, giving way to a warm front Thursday, then low pressure and associated cold front Thursday night through Friday. The low and cold front pass east Friday night as high pressure builds. Through the late week period, sub SCA conditions are generally expected. The only exception could be late Thursday night into Friday. Much depends on eventual strength of the low as it moves across the waters. Seas should remain 5 ft or less Wednesday night through Saturday, but the late Thursday night through Friday time frame needs to be monitored as the storm impacts the local waters. && .HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected through Wednesday. Additional rainfall is possible Thursday night through Friday, with a corresponding low chance for urban and poor drainage flooding.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical high tides continue to run high, especially during the high tide cycle at night. Along the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens, less than a foot departure is needed to reach minor flooding thresholds. Departures there should run around 1 foot above. As such, a coastal flood advisory has been issued for these areas for tonight`s high tide cycle.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NYZ178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/PW NEAR TERM...Fig/PW SHORT TERM...Fig LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...Fig/PW HYDROLOGY...Fig/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW

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