Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 240200 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1000 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF GUSTY WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MUCH...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... FOR THURSDAY...A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AROUND NEW YORK CITY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. DECENT SHOT AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS 6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR. NORTHWEST GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 25 TO 30 KT. GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...35 TO 38 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND 40 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THU NIGHT...NW GUSTS ENDING DURING THE EVENING. .FRI...VFR. CHC NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR. .SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR. .SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT. .MON...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT. EARLIER COORDINATION WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS RESULTED IN RED FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN EARLIER TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ002>004- 006-103>108. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340- 345-350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...MET MARINE...PW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...

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