Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220526 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1226 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A slow moving cold front will stall to the south overnight into Thursday. Waves of low pressure will move along it through Friday, followed by a brief respite on Saturday before a more significant frontal system moves across on Sunday. High pressure will follow for Monday through Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Have updated forecast to bump up PoPs across the area. Some showers will be moving through the city and nearby areas over the next hour or two, plus additional showers will be shifting in from the west towards daybreak. Temperatures will continue to fall behind the cold front that passed through earlier tonight. See Public Information Statement (PNSOKX) for details on impressive high temperature records set at most climate sites today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A wave will move along the stalled frontal boundary, setting up a period of precipitation from late Thursday morning into Thursday evening. High temperatures may initially be achieved during the morning, followed by gradually lowering temperatures through the day as a surface high builds southeastward. Temperatures aloft will remain somewhat warm in the 925 mb to 700 mb layer. For most locations, the precipitation type will be a cold rain, however for interior areas north and west of NYC there is potential for a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow around the evening commute. These areas will need to be monitored for the possibility of a winter weather advisory. As colder air filters into the region, afternoon temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees colder than Wednesday. Daytime highs in the lower to mid 40s will likely occur in the morning, with temperatures falling into the 30s in the afternoon. Temperatures on Thursday night will be a few degrees above normal, in the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... With strong high pressure passing to the north and resulting cold air damming in place, also warmer air surging in aloft, there could be some sleet and/or freezing rain Fri morning as the next in a series of waves of low pressure rides atop the anomalously strong upper ridge to the south. There could be a brief respite from precip on Saturday as this wave passes east and weak high pressure passes to the north, with skies clearing for a time across southern CT as drier air filters in. Rain chances should again increase Sat night into Sunday with the approach of a warm front in advance of low pressure moving from the Plains toward the upper Great Lakes. An associated trailing cold front should then move through Sunday night, followed by fair and slightly cooler wx Mon through Wed as high pressure builds in. Temps look to be above normal through the period, warmest during the weekend with the approach of the warm front. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A cold front stalls south of the region today with a weak area of low pressure tracking south of the area this afternoon. VFR conditions early this morning. A shower cannot be ruled out, but coverage should limited and have elected to go with VCSH. A brief period of MVFR cigs is possible as well. Higher confidence in deteriorating conditions to low MVFR and IFR during the late morning/early afternoon in more widespread developing precip. Wintry mix expected for KSWF with a few tenths sleet accum and glaze of ice possible. Rain likely changing to wintry mix for KBDR/KHPN/KGON by late afternoon, with light sleet/ice accum possible. Potential for FZRA/IP to mix in with the rain for NYC/NJ and LI terminals late afternoon/evening, with little to no accum. Precip should taper off after 00z, but some patchy DZ/FZDZ possible. N/NE gusts 15-20 kt possible today. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Late Tonight...MVFR/IFR conds likely. Light FZDZ possible for interior terminals. DZ possible for coastal terminals, with low prob of FZDZ. .Fri...MVFR/IFR in rain coast, wintry mix interior. .Sat...CHC MVFR in shra. .Sun...MVFR/IFR in rain. S winds G20 KT. .Mon...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Have cancelled the SCA on the ocean waters with winds and seas below criteria for the rest of the night. Will probably need to post another SCA for some of the waters starting Thursday afternoon. Sub-SCA conditions are likely Thursday morning before ocean seas build above 5 ft with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. These SCA conds should last into Fri morning. An approaching frontal system should also bring SCA conds to the ocean waters from Sunday into early Monday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Episodes of light to moderate rainfall tonight through Sunday should total about an inch. Hydrologic impacts not expected.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday February 21, 2018 Location........Record/Year Newark..............49/2002 Bridgeport..........44/2002 Central Park........50/2002 LaGuardia...........47/2002 JFK.................47/1981 Islip...............45/1996 && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CB/Goodman NEAR TERM...CB/JC/MD SHORT TERM...CB/MD LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...DS/NV MARINE...CB/Goodman HYDROLOGY...CB/Goodman CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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