Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241927 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO DEPART TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SUNDAY. ITS RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH DURING MONDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER ALL THREE DAYS...BUT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN FLOW WITH SW WINDS WILL HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMALS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDS HAVE THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. MODELS DIFFER FOR FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION. SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT GREAT SO FAR...BUT WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED REGIONWIDE TONIGHT AS BROKEN CLOUD DECK DISSIPATES AFTER SUNSET. VFR IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. NW FLOW/GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVENING. WIND GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 30KT LIKELY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IN CIGS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 30 KT ON SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...ALLOWING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT. WILL PUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR ALL WATERS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SW RETURN FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD BE MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JC NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...IRD MARINE...BC/JC HYDROLOGY...BC/JC

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