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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 312349
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE LOCATION
IS LOW.

LIGHT S TO SW WIND AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS TONIGHT. WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE S
MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

  ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS