Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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570 FXUS61 KOKX 190903 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 403 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will be in control through Friday morning. The high moves off the New England coast Friday afternoon as an upper level disturbance approaches from the south. This system weakens as it moves across Friday night. Deepening low pressure will approach from the southwest from Sunday into Monday while a gradually strengthening high builds into the Canadian Maritimes. The low will continue to approach Monday night into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Temperatures have held above freezing at most locations with a few mesonet sites in the higher elevations of the NW interior at 32 degrees. Fog has remained patchy and generally above 1/2 mile. Will let the SPS continue through daybreak to reflect the fog as well as potential for some icy conditions from mist or black ice on roadways across the higher elevations. The day will start out mostly cloudy, but a NW downslope flow clears skies from west to east this morning. Mostly sunny skies are forecast thereafter with temperatures rising to around 10 degrees above normal. Readings range from the upper 40s inland to the low 50s in NYC/NJ metro and Long Island. It would not be out of the question for readings to be a bit higher based on the anomalously mild pattern we are currently seeing across the country.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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Middle and upper level ridging builds overhead tonight with surface high pressure in control at the surface. Some hints at returning stratus deck overnight on the 00Z NAM12. However, this appears aggressive and will go with a mostly clear forecast. Time heights from the 4-km nam and GFS show some increase in moisture around 2kft, but not enough to warrant a broken or overcast deck of stratus. Lows will range from the upper 20s inland to the lower and middle 30s near the coast and NYC metro. Southern branch shortwave energy across the midwest will eject eastward and shear out as it approaches on Friday. The ridge axis moves overhead Friday and weakens in response to the approaching energy. Frontal boundary associated with this system likely stays to the south, but with the energy approaching clouds increase from south to north through the day. Much of the daytime on Friday will be dry with pops increasing to likely in the late afternoon and early evening for mainly the NYC metro and NE NJ tapering to chance into the Hudson Valley and western Long Island. There is good agreement among the 00z GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, CMC, NAM, RGEM, and SREF in an average of a tenth of an inch of liquid between 21z Fri and 00z Sat where likely pops are forecast. High temperatures on Friday continue about 5 degrees above normal in the lower and middle 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure system will move northeastward into the Great Lakes region on Friday, pushing a weakening frontal system across the area Friday night into early Saturday. Precipitation amounts will be light with this system. High temperatures Friday will be in the low to mid 40s. Lows Friday night will be in the mid to upper 30s. A weak boundary will remain overhead for Saturday, but ridging overhead should allow for dry conditions across most areas through the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s and mid to upper 40s on Sunday. Lows Saturday and Sunday night will generally be in the mid to upper 30s. A stronger frontal system approaches late Sunday into early next week. At this time it does look like this system will bring to the area a soaking rain Sunday into Monday. There is the potential of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with this system from Sunday afternoon into Monday night. The low will slowly pull away from the area by the middle of next week. Temperatures Monday through the middle of the week will remain above normal. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west through the TAF period. Outside of a few terminals with MVFR outside of the NY Metro, VFR conditions are being experienced initially. Expecting all VFR by around mid morning and for the VFR to continue through the rest of the day. VFR expected to continue into tonight but there will be a chance for MVFR or lower for second half of tonight. Winds will be generally NW under 10 kt through early afternoon and then NW near 10 kt for mid to late afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Winds could be a few kts higher than forecast this afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Winds could be a few kts higher than forecast this afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: Winds could be a few kts higher than forecast this afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Winds could be a few kts higher than forecast this afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: Winds could be a few kts higher than forecast this afternoon. KISP TAF Comments: Winds could be a few kts higher than forecast this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Friday-Friday night...MVFR or lower in -RA. .Saturday-Saturday night...Mainly VFR. .Sunday-Sunday night...MVFR or lower in -RA. Moderate rain develops at night. .Monday...Chance of IFR with moderate to heavy rain and strong E-NE winds.
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&& .MARINE...
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Small craft advisory for hazardous seas remains in effect on the ocean waters through 05z. Easterly swell from offshore low should help keep seas above 5 ft through the day before subsiding this evening. If the trend is slower than currently forecast, the SCA may need to be extended into a portion of the overnight, mainly for the eastern ocean waters. Otherwise...A relaxed pressure gradient will keep winds and seas below SCA levels on all waters through Saturday. Small craft advisory conditions are possible on the ocean waters Sunday afternoon, and for all waters on Monday, with the approach of the next storm. Gales may be possible on the ocean Monday afternoon/evening, and ocean seas could reach 6-11 ft Sunday night into early next week as an easterly fetch sets up.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No significant precipitation is expected through Saturday night. As a frontal system moves slowly across the hydrologic service area Sunday into the middle of next week it could bring a significant rainfall of one to two inches. There is the potential for some minor flooding. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...JM MARINE...Fig/DS HYDROLOGY...Fig/DS

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