Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190718 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 318 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will be in control through early Wednesday as a weak trough passes offshore. A cold front then pushes through the region on Wednesday. High pressure then settles over the region Thursday into Friday ahead of a frontal system and associated low pressure Friday night into Saturday. High pressure should then return Sunday into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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GOES-16 6.95 um WV imagery and 500mb analysis depicts a positively tilted trough clearing the east coast this morning, as an associated surface trough pushes offshore. Behind this feature, northwest flow and cold air advection continues to keep temperatures in the mid to upper 30s early this morning. In the wake of these features, decent model agreement on a more zonal mid level flow taking shape by this afternoon with high pressure located to the southwest of the area. Dry and sunny conditions across the the CWA are likely today as sfc winds shift to the west/southwest this afternoon. This will result in increased cloud cover from the west as mid level moisture advection increases in association with a weak mid level shortwave that is progged to traverse the interior. Given the dry low levels and weak lapse rates, not expecting any precipitation. NW winds will increase and become gusty throughout the day, 20-25kts at the peak. High temperatures near or just below normal, in the upper 40s to near 50 per NBM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Aforementioned zonal flow becomes more amplified as a closed mid and upper low over Quebec sends a trough though the region on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure heading northeast from Ontario into Quebec by Wednesday afternoon will drag a cold front through the CWA by Wednesday evening. Shower chances increase by afternoon as the front approaches. The system does not have a lot of moisture to work with, with PW less than 0.25" and thermal profiles suggestive of light rain showers at best for most of the area. The one exception may be across far northwestern sections, NW Orange and Putnam counties, where some snow showers may mix in very briefly at the end. Highs tomorrow a few degrees warmer than Tuesday under WSW flow, though afternoon cloud cover may mitigate somewhat depending on how quickly they overspread. Behind the front on Wednesday night into Thursday, dry and blustery conditions prevail with cold air advection under gusty northwest flow. Highs on Thursday will struggle to get into the mid 40s, with wind chills making it feel like the low to mid 30s. Thursday AM wind chills will feel even colder, in the teens to low 20s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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There are still fairly significant differences among the deterministic and ensemble models for Friday night into Saturday. However, there is an increasing probability for a period of unsettled conditions during this time frame. *Key Points* *A cold night is in store Thursday night with lows in the 20s for most locations as high pressure settles over the region. *Dry conditions will continue on Friday with temperatures remaining below average in the lower to middle 40s. *Probabilities for precipitation have increased Friday night into Saturday. The overall pattern supports potential of a wintry mix inland at the onset, with mainly rain into Saturday. *Mainly dry conditions are currently expected Sunday, which should prevail into early next week. *Temperatures should be below normal Sunday and Monday, potentially above normal by next Tuesday. Upper ridging Thursday night into Friday will give way to a split flow regime into the weekend. There will be a southern stream system moving across the southeast on Friday. At the same time, a frontal boundary associated with a northern stream upper trough over southern Canada will be approaching into Friday night. The latest modeling is still disagreeing with the amount of interaction between the two streams as both the frontal boundary and southern low emerge along the east coast. The modeling that shows more interaction/phasing leads to widespread precip late Friday night into Saturday. Other guidance with less interaction bring a period of precip Friday night with the front, but keep the associated low pressure well to our south. Another scenario that is depicted by some of the latest guidance is for the southern stream to become cut- off near southeast coast with the associated low, or pieces of the low, nearing the LI coast into Sunday. Due to the continued large spread in the guidance and uncertainty with both the northern and southern stream systems, have stayed close to the NBM during this time frame. As noted above, PoPs have increased Friday night into Saturday. The latest NBM probabilities for greater than 1 inch of rain in 24 hours have also increased over the last day and are now 30 to 50 percent, highest NYC on east. High pressure should return Sunday into early next week although the timing of this may depend on if the southern low hangs around a bit longer than currently anticipated.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR through the TAF period. WNW-NW winds will continue to weaken before day break with most locations around 10 kt or less. Winds increase after day break, becoming around 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Winds begin to back towards the W in the afternoon and then SW in the evening. Gusts will end in the evening, 23-02z, with sustained speeds falling below 10 kt overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Start time of frequent gusts may be 1-2 hours off from TAF. Gusts could be a few kt higher at times this afternoon. OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Late tonight: VFR. Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR possible in a few showers in the afternoon and early evening. SW wind gusts near 20-25 kt, becoming NW at night. Thursday: VFR. NW wind gusts near 25-30 kt. Friday: Mainly VFR through early evening. MVFR or lower possible overnight with chances for rain near coast and rain/snow inland. Saturday: MVFR or lower at times. Mainly rain likely. SE wind gusts 20-25 kt during the day, becoming NW at night. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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Westerly wind gusts will increase through the morning eventually becoming widespread across all waters. The SCA remains in effect on the ocean for both winds and seas into early Wednesday as a westerly fetch will allow waves to remain elevated. Small craft conditions then return for the ocean and western near shore zones Wednesday. Gales are also a possibility on the ocean and the nearshore waters late Wed night and into early Thursday. Sub SCA conditions then return late Thursday as the pressure gradient relaxes. A weakening pressure gradient Thursday night will lead to winds beginning to fall below SCA levels, especially late. Conditions will then remain below SCA until late Friday night into early Saturday morning with a return to SCA wind gusts on the ocean. This may then spread to the non-ocean waters on Saturday and continue Saturday night as a frontal system and low pressure move across the waters. Ocean seas will also become elevated during this time frame.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Dry conditions are expected on Tuesday with minimum RH values averaging around 35 percent and gusts 20-25 mph especially across southern CT. Per coordination with surrounding offices and fire weather partners, no special weather statements will be issued for Tuesday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through Thursday. While the chance for widespread precipitation has increased a bit over the last 24 hours for Friday night into Saturday, no hydrologic impacts are currently anticipated.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DBR/DS NEAR TERM...DBR SHORT TERM...DBR LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...DS MARINE...DBR/DS FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...DBR/DS

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