Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 221538 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1138 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Post Tropical Cyclone Jose will meander and weaken to the southeast of Long Island through Saturday, as high pressure slowly builds in from the west. The high continues to build into the area for the rest of the weekend, then remains over the area through much of next week as Hurricane Maria tracks well offshore of the east coast. A cold front passes through the region Thursday. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose and Maria. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Fcst is on track this mrng with no major changes made. Could see some lingering showers over far eastern zones, otherwise it will be dry. It will be mostly sunny/partly cloudy west and partly to mostly cloudy east. All this in response to Jose as it slowly weakens to the southeast of Long Island. 850 Temperatures are rather warm for this time of year, 15-16C, however, low level mixing is limited to 975-925 hPa, so highs will only be from the mid 70s to around 80. It will be a few degrees cooler over far eastern zones, where cloud cover will limit temperatures to upper 60s to lower 70s. Long period swells from Jose will continue to produce dangerous rip currents and pounding surf at Atlantic Beaches into this evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Post tropical cyclone Jose continues to slowly weaken tonight and Saturday to the southeast of Long Island. Any lingering showers over far eastern Long Island should come to an end this evening. Cloud cover will gradually decrease from W to E through Saturday. Lows tonight will be around 10 degrees above normal. With less cloud cover, should mix uniformly to around 925 hPa. As a result, it should be about 5-10 degrees warmer on Saturday than today, with highs mainly from around 80 to mid 80s, except upper 80s in NYC and Urban NE NJ. Swells form Jose should continue to produce a high risk of rip currents on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A anomalous upper air pattern will feature a longwave trough over the western states, and a highly amplified ridge across the east. Hurricane Maria will track slowly north then northeast through the weak in a weakness in the ridge provided by Post-tropical cyclone Jose. The latter of which remains nearly stationary through the weekend before working slow east early next week. Refer to the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center for forecast information on Jose and Maria. Warm heights aloft and subsidence will result in an unseasonably warm week with mainly dry conditions. The warmest days look to be Sunday and Monday with readings in the 80s for most locations. There is a low chance of showers for the mid week period as moisture works in ahead of Maria and the upper ridge begins to break down with the approach of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Due to long period swells from both Jose and Maria, there will be a prolonged period of rough surf at the ocean beaches. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Tropical Storm Jose will meander off the southern New England coast today. Generally VFR. KGON may see a periods of MVFR through the TAF period, but hires stlt indicates that downsloping is keeping things vfr. Gusts today between 20-30 kt, with the highest across the eastern terminals. Gusts diminish after 00z. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional wind gusts may be higher than forecast. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional wind gusts may be higher than forecast. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional wind gusts may be higher than forecast. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional wind gusts may be higher than forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional wind gusts may be higher than forecast. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional wind gusts may be higher than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday Night...VFR. Gusts gradually subsiding. .Saturday-Tuesday...VFR. Wind becoming N-NE 10-20 kt. A few higher gusts possible.
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&& .MARINE... A combination of winds gusting to 25 to 30 KT (occasionally 35 kt over the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches inlet) and swells from Jose will produce small craft conditions over all waters except Ny Harbor and W Long Island Sound Today. Gusts should subside to below 25 KT on the South Shore Bays, by this evening, so limit the SCA there to just today. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on W Long Island Sound and NY Harbor today, with gusts to around 20 kt. Gusts to small craft levels continue on the coastal ocean waters (with still some spotty gusts to around gale force possible east of Moriches inlet) and on the Eastern Sound and Bays of Long Island tonight, so have continued the SCA there. Sub-small craft conditions should exist to tonight on NY Harbor,W Long Island Sound and the south shore bays and remain so on Saturday. On Saturday, while the winds should diminish below SCA levels on all waters by afternoon, seas on the coastal ocean waters will remain above SCA levels through the day. As a result, have extended the SCA for E Long Island Sound and the Eastern Bays through midday Saturday and on the coastal ocean waters through the day on Saturday. Small craft level seas should linger through Saturday night on the coastal ocean waters, but winds on all waters should be around 10 kt or less Saturday night. A weak flow Sunday into Monday will give way to strengthening NE winds during the mid week period as the pressure gradient tightens between Hurricane Maria and high pressure over the area. Winds though look to remain below SCA. Seas will gradually build through the period due to long period swells from Maria with small craft seas expected through the mid week. && .HYDROLOGY... Little if any precipitation is expected through the middle of next week, as a result no significant hydrologic impacts are forecast through then. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Post Tropical Cyclone Jose will remain nearly stationary a couple hundred miles SE of eastern Long Island, with Ekman forcing keeping elevated water levels along the coast despite offshore winds. This will have water levels peaking with the Friday morning high tide cycle, resulting in widespread minor coastal flooding in the south shore bays from Brooklyn through Southwestern Suffolk County, so have a coastal flood advisory in effect there. Water levels also could come close to reaching minor coastal flood benchmarks for Hudson County and Staten Island during todays high tide so have a coastal flood statement for these locations. Water levels should gradually drop Friday night into the weekend. Historically, guidance is to fast to bring down water levels in the back shore bays when there is a persistent onshore long period swell, so have continued the coastal flood advisory from Brooklyn through southwest Suffolk County through tonights high tide. There is some potential that there could be some very , localized minor flooding at the most vulnerable south shore bay locales Saturday morning. This threat can be addressed with a coastal flood statement if it looks like this threat will be realized. Rough surf will also continue into the weekend, but dune erosion from this point on should be localized. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ075-080- 178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ330-340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Maloit/DW NEAR TERM...JMC/Maloit/DW SHORT TERM...Maloit LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...BC/JMC MARINE...Maloit/DW HYDROLOGY...Maloit/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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