Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 311741 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO AREA. ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. WILL CARRY A 20 POP FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT... GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME THERMAL TROUGH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ. LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS. LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH 00Z. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS 06Z TO 11Z...THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NYC TERMINALS. AFTERWARD THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND THE SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WIND COULD EVEN BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TUESDAY BY MIDDAY. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE LIKELY REMAINS SOUTH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES LIKELY. .THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE. .FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT. .SATURDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU. LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. && .HYDROLOGY... THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN. NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...MET MARINE...GC/MPS HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS

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