Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 300843 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 443 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINING FIRM. AT THE SURFACE...A RESULTANT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS WARM FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL PA AND MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN SW FLOW ALOFT. POTENTIAL FOR LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DRIFTING NE FROM EASTERN PA...INTO AREAS WELL W AND NW OF NYC. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NYC METRO AND POINTS N&W...AND S/SE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK EXISTS TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING 3 FT S SWELLS. THE RIP RISK MAY BE A MARGINAL HIGH RISK ACROSS EASTERN LI BEACHES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 4 FT S SWELLS AND ONSHORE FLOW...BUT SHOULD DROP TO MODERATE AFTER DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THEN PIVOTS NE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT LIFTING NORTH TILL WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TRIPLE PT WAVE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFT AS WELL. FORCING AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS W/SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPING TRIPLE PT WAVE APPROACH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD POSE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTM LOOKS TO BE WED MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND WARM FRONT/WAVE LIFTS THROUGH. IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT WAVE...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NW & W OF NYC...OR ALONG ANY THERMAL OR LINGERING PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH. WITH DECENT SHEAR PROFILES AND LLJ...CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH EVEN SOME WEAK ROTATION ALONG WARM FRONT/DEVELOPING TRIPLE PT WAVE. POTENTIAL IS LOW OVERALL...BUT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY. CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE IS COMING THROUGH IN VICINITY OF ANY BOUNDARY. SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AXIS LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIRMASS. HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLNS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CMC...HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ISSUES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE NRN STREAM FLOW BEGIN TO BECOME APPARENT ON SAT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION ACROSS ERN CANADA AND NERN PORTION OF THE CONUS WILL DETERMINE IF AND WHEN THE NEXT CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEEK. ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WED EVE IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. COULD SEE A FEW STRAY TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE FROPA WITH PARENT LOW PRES SYSTEM CUTTING OFF ALOFT AND SFC LOW TRACKING DUE N THU NIGHT. IT IS ALSO SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. AT ANY RATE...ALL SOLNS INDICATE THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND GRADUALLY LIFTING N/NE THU/THU NIGHT LEADING TO A SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS...SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS THE INTERIOR THU. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TRENDS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER S WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NE PROVIDING DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR FRI. SAT MAY END UP BEING DRY IF THE HIGH HANGS ON AND KEEPS A FRONTAL WAVE SUPPRESSED TO THE S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM ADVECTION SUN INTO MON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HI PRES DRIFTS OVER THE ATLC TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE S TNGT AND LIFTS THRU WED MRNG. MAINLY VFR THRU AT LEAST 4Z WED. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF FOG AT THE OUTLYING ARPTS THRU 12Z...BUT THE PROB REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY AFT 8Z WED IN THE EXTENDED TAFS...BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME STRATUS DURING THE SAME PERIOD INVOF THE FRONT. LGT WINDS THRU 12-14Z WITH SOME VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL PREVAILING AROUND 220-180 TRUE. WINDS BACK TO THE SE DURING THE DAY AND FURTHER TO THE ESE TNGT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD IN SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. && .MARINE... SUB SCA CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF THE STRONGER NAM SOLN ENDS UP VERIFYING THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WINDS COULD GET CLOSE. OTHERWISE...A SLY SWELL MAY BRING SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE 5 FT WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVE WITH SUB- SCA CONDS THEREAFTER. && .HYDROLOGY... POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS AROUND A HALF INCH BUT LOCALLY 1+ IS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING WITH ANY CONVECTION...WITH A LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT/TRIPLE PT LOW. NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...JMC MARINE...24/NV HYDROLOGY...24/NV

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