Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 311511 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1011 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS PLACE. THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING WELL OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THAT TIME FRAME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CLEAR SKIES...GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WIND AND WINDCHILL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED/EXPIRED BASED ON SUBSIDING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. SUBZERO WINDCHILLS THIS MORNING RISING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE TEENS TODAY...APPROACHING 20 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY HOURLY GFS LAMP NUMBERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND LIGHTEN. TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. IN FACT...READINGS WILL NOT FALL MUCH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION. ON SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 20S...INTO THE 30S. STAYED CLOSE TO A MET/MAV MOS BLEND. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE OBSERVED OVER NJ AND WESTERN ZONES VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... DO NOT SEE A BIG SHIFT IN THE MODELS THIS RUN...AND GENERAL AGREEMENT IS NOTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH MONDAY. ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGESTS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A WINTRY MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...AND 8 TO 12 INLAND. SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AS WELL. FOR LONG ISLAND AND NYC...THESE ACCUMULATIONS ARE A TOTAL. THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS COULD BE LOWER DUE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN CHANGEOVER. FOR THE COAST...SNOW TO BRIEF PD OF RAIN/FZRA AND IP...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW MONDAY AFTN. INTERIOR...MAINLY SNOW WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN MONDAY MORNING. TIMING FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT NOON OR SO MONDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED. START TIME 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. THIS CAN BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. OF COURSE ANY SHIFT IN TRACK NORTH OR SOUTH WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE AS OUR AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHICH IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. TEMPS ARE A NAM 2M BLEND WITH GRIDDED MOS. HAND EDITS WERE NEEDED AS WELL. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS INLAND TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST. ON MONDAY...MID 30S POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...ERN LI...AND AROUND 20 WELL INLAND. TEMPS DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STORM PASSES TO THE SE AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN. AFTER THIS SYSTEM...MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL MIDWEEK...WE WILL BE IN A QUASI-ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH A LARGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS. FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FAR OFFSHORE...MORE OFFSHORE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF RUN TODAY...BUT DID NOT WANT TO TOTALLY MAKE FOR A DRY FORECAST. LEFT IN A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONVEYED MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN BEFORE SO THE LOW IS NOT THAT STRONG OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE COULD PROVE TO BE MORE DOMINANT IN ALLOWING FOR A DRIER FORECAST. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL OVERALL...MAINLY IN 20S EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID 30S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR OTHER PERIODS...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS FOLLOWS...SINGLE DIGITS TO A LITTLE BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MID TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NW WINDS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG WILL BACK TO AROUND 310 MAG BY MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD FAVOR LEFT OF 310 MAG AS EARLY AS LATE AFTN. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS THIS MORNING AND WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS 5-10 KT. .SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT DAY. IFR AND SNOW LIKELY. CHC MIXED PCPN. NE-N G 25-35KT POSSIBLE. .MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AS SNOW COMES TO AN END. N-NW WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NW GALES OF TO 45 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND UP TO 40 KT ON ALL OTHER WATERS THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF ROUGH SEAS...STRONG WINDS...AND COLD WATER TEMPS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY TODAY. GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THOUGH A FEW 35 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DEPARTS. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONDS RAMP UP TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY AND GALES ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS FOR A PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. THE RELATIVELY MORE QUIET PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE OUTER OCEAN TUESDAY OF AROUND 5 FT. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... GENERALLY AROUND 0.8 TO 1.2 INCHES OF LIQUID FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SNOW AND WINTRY MIX EVENT IS FORECAST. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012. NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW/NV SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JM/PW AVIATION...MPS MARINE...MPS HYDROLOGY...PW

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