Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281450 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 950 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND USHERS IN VERY COLD AIR STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN PASSES NEAR THE REGION ON MONDAY. MORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE NNE WITH NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. STILL EXPERIENCING CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...SO WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THERE...BUT FARTHER W SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...THE HIGH ALBEDO FROM THE FRESH SNOW KEEPS MAX TEMPS CONFINED TO THE MID 20S. USED 1-2 DEGREES BELOW THE LOWEST OF THE COMBINED MOS FOR HIGHS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE 10 TO 15 ABOVE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT. SKC AND LIGHT WIND. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO INLAND. MID TEENS FOR THE CITY AND AROUND 10 ON LONG ISLAND. AGAIN...THE LOWER OF THE MOS WAS USED AND LOWERED 1-2 DEGREES FROM THERE. FEEL THESE MIGHT STILL BE TOO WARM...BUT USUALLY LOOSE WHEN TRYING TO OUT FORECAST MOS TOO MUCH. WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP ON THURSDAY WITH CLOUD COVER THICKENING AND LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT TO BE OVERCAST BY MID AFTERNOON EVEN OUT EAST. TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD - AROUND 30...LOWER 30S NY METRO AND LONG ISLAND. KEEP POPS JUST WEST OF ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM PER CONSENSUS OF LATEST NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INCLUDING SREF.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE. TWO SYSTEMS - THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAYS CLIPPER SYSTEM AS NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. EXPECTING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL. HAVE KEPT THIS MOSTLY SNOW - THOUGH A WET SNOW FOR THE COAST. PROBABILISTIC SNOW GRAPHICS AND DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT: WEATHER.GOV/OKX/WINTER CLIPPER PULLS AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MASSIVE DROP IN TEMPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY. HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR A FLASH FREEZING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. FORECAST MID TEENS IN THE CITY BY 7 PM. WINDS HOWL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AMBIENT TEMPS TO NEAR ZERO INLAND WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS AT THE COAST. LOOKS LIKELY FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES !! JUMPING TO NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF TEXAS. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. HAVE RAISED POPS ALONG WITH ALL SURROUND NWS OFFICES TO LIKELY. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CONTINUE WITH THE COLD SOLUTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN (NOT THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH IS WARM) AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF. CMC IS THE WARMEST - ALL RAIN AND A LOT OF IT (DO NOT NEED THAT EITHER). WILL ADD THIS TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. VFR AS LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FARTHER AWAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC... AT SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY... .THU...VFR. .THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING...IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES KSWF/KHPN. .FRI AFTERNOON-NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT...INCREASING AT NIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE. .SAT...VFR. .SUN...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY...AS ANOTHER LOW IMPACTS THE AREA. LOW TRACK AND THEREFORE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WINDS UNCERTAIN.
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&& .MARINE...
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MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. SCA GUSTS CONTINUE TODAY FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SCA LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION MAKES GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADDED TO FORECAST WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A HALF AN INCH OR SO OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME OR MOST OF THIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION...SO LITTLE OR NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A WARM SOLUTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A POSSIBLE AND MOST PRECIPITATION COULD BE OF LIQUID WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS JUST RECEIVING A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/TONGUE NEAR TERM...MALOIT/TONGUE SHORT TERM...TONGUE LONG TERM...TONGUE AVIATION...MPS MARINE...MALOIT/TONGUE/PW HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW

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