Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281755 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 155 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 998 HPA SFC LOW NEAR ALBANY NY AS OF 1 PM. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE KBDR TO KISP LINE. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND THE UPPER LOW WERE ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK. CAP IS WEAKENING WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER NOW NORTH OF KSMQ IN NORTHERN NJ. CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT. BELIEVE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS - HIGHEST NORTH. WILL LIKELY DROP THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO COME 3 PM WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, MAIN WX STORY IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS WE MIX UP TO 800-850 HPA. THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR LATER SAT THROUGH SUN. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS OTHERWISE. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT. GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG. OTHERWISE...VFR. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME. THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING. AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...TONGUE/PW LONG TERM... AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...TONGUE/PW HYDROLOGY...TONGUE

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