Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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784 FXUS61 KOKX 302305 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 705 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves offshore tonight. A cold front approaches on Wednesday, then crosses the area from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A large high pressure system then builds into the region through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast is on track. Slight adjustment to t/td and sky grids based on latest obs and trends. With zonal flow aloft, dry conditions will continue through the overnight period. Light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 60s across outlying areas, and to near 70 in the New York City metro area. A high risk of rip currents will continue tonight at the Atlantic beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As the surface high continues to move offshore, a shortwave trough will approach the area from the west during the day on Wednesday. This will result in increasing clouds and a chance for showers and thunderstorms north and west of New York City by Wednesday evening. The front then slowly moves across the area Wednesday night and into the day on Thursday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues through much of the day on Thursday as the upper level trough crosses the region. There is a high risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches on Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Have just a slight chance PoP Thu evening as the upper trough passes east. Then a large high pressure system should build in at least through Saturday, with slightly above average temps continuing. While the forecast continues in this vein through Monday, certainty decreases beginning this weekend, and ultimately depends upon the future track and intensity of Tropical Depression 9 (now located over the Gulf of Mexico) and its interaction with an upper trough to its west as it continues on the NHC forecast track and intensity, across Florida on Thursday and then off the Southeast coast on Saturday as a tropical storm. There are indications that the system could track closer to the western edge of the NHC 5-day forecast cone. At any rate, rip currents and eventually high surf could be problems through the Labor Day weekend, first from distant Hurricane Gaston, then from TD9 (or its named equivalent) during the Labor Day holiday weekend. Beachgoers should be aware of these potential risks. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure will drift eastward over the Atlantic through Wednesday. A combination of sea breeze and return flow around the exiting high pressure system can be expected through Wednesday. This translates into roughly 160-220 true winds through the TAF period. Localized variability possible at times. VFR is generally expected through Wednesday. There is a low probability that stratus develops late tonight and produces ceilings around 1000 ft. For the TAFs, only included a mention of scattered clouds at this height due to the much higher VFR likelihood. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Some variability between 150 and 200 true possible through 00Z. KLGA TAF Comments: Some variability between 170 and 210 true possible through 00Z. KEWR TAF Comments: Variability between 180 and 120 true is possible through 00Z. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. .Outlook for 18Z Wednesday through Sunday... .Rest of Wednesday...low chance of MVFR or lower late at night. .Thursday...Showers possible with a cold frontal passage. Light winds with variable direction due to localized effects, becoming northwest late. .Friday...VFR with northwest winds. .Saturday and Sunday...Low probability for deep low pressure over the Atlantic to impact the area. Otherwise, VFR.
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&& .MARINE... A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around Long Island will keep winds to 10 kt or less through Thursday. A persistent SE swell from distant Hurricane Gaston will keep seas around 4 ft over the coastal ocean waters through Wednesday night and 3 to 4 ft on Thursday, with rough conditions likely at area inlets. These seas are below SCA thresholds, so the small craft advisory for hazardous seas has been cancelled. Lingering long period swells of 2-3 ft from Gaston should continue into Friday night, which along with offshore flow up to 15 kt should result in combined seas 3-4 ft Thu night into Friday. Forecast certainty decreases thereafter, and will depend on the future track and intensity of TD9 as it moves from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic from Friday into the weekend. Forecast does not include any direct wind impacts, but does include ocean swell building to over SCA criteria this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected, and moderate to severe drought conditions continue. Around a quarter of an inch of rainfall is possible Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry weather expected Thursday night into the beginning of next week. Moderate to severe drought conditions continue. The next local drought statement updated is scheduled for September 1st. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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