Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 101444 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 944 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF MONTAUK TODAY...AND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHEAST. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PER CURRENT RADAR AND EXTRAPOLATED TREND WHICH MATCHES HRRR FAIRLY WELL...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS EXPECTED. A SHRTWV OVER SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA NEAR DC WILL TRACK ENEWD TODAY...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST S OF LONG ISLAND. IF IT WERE TO SKIRT LONG ISLAND...SOME PLACES...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH SHORE OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND...COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LLVLS DRY OUT THIS AFTN WITH WLY FLOW...SO SNOW CHCS DECREASE THRU THE DAY. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE NEARLY SATURATED H85-H7 REGION TNGT. THIS LEVEL WILL BE THERMALLY CONDUCIVE TO SNOW PRODUCTION. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED FLURRIES IN THE FCST. TEMPS GENERALLY A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TRENDED HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER 00Z NAM 2M TEMPS DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... H5 TROF AXIS...INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO SCT TO NMRS SNOW SHWRS. SOME OF THESE COULD BE LOCALLY HVY WITH THE NAM EVEN PRODUCING ABOUT 100 J/KG OF SBCAPE. WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING IN THE FCST. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN ON UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT AND PRODUCE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL THEREFORE BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHWRS OCCUR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BRISK NW FLOW AFTER COLD FROPA THU SHOULD PEAK DURING THE EVENING...WITH POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING ADVY CRITERIA IN NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THU NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH IN TANDEM WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND TEENS NYC/COASTAL SECTIONS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 0 TO 5 ABOVE. FAIR ON FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRI NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SAT MORNING. MEANWHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRI...WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE MADE A HABIT OF TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN MODEL FCST...AND SO INCREASED GUIDANCE POP A LITTLE TO BRING CHANCES TO NYC EAST FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THEN A QUICK SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS AGREE ON H8 TEMPS AS COLD AS -29C TO -30C APPROACHING LATE SAT NIGHT...WHICH SUPPORTS FCST LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO ZERO IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...0 TO 5 BELOW MOST ELSEWHERE...AND A LITTLE COLDER IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH NW WINDS 10-20 MPH WOULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND 25 BELOW ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR. THIS SHOT OF FRIGID AIR SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PASSES EAST MON MORNING. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...FCST LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OF 10-15 IN NYC AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE COULD END UP AT LEAST SEVERAL DEG COLDER IF CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HOLDS OFF UNTIL MON. HIGHS ON MON QUICKLY MODERATE TO 30-35. OVERRUNNING THEN SETS UP MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THAT TIME...THEN POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM NYC NORTH/WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT BUT A WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR REMAINS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP WELL INTO THE 40S TUE AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIP TO ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CONDS LIFT TO VFR THROUGHOUT BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE GUSTS SUBSIDE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SPEED INCREASES AND FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SPEED INCREASES AND FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SPEED INCREASES AND FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SPEED INCREASES AND FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SPEED INCREASES AND FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SPEED INCREASES AND FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO SNOW. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 15Z THU THROUGH SUN... .THU...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. WNW GUSTS 25-30KT. .FRI...VFR. .SAT-SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-30KT. && .MARINE... SCA COND THRU TNGT ON THE OCEAN. REISSUED FOR NY HARBOR WHERE GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ALL AREAS UNDER A GALE WATCH FOR THU AND THU NGT WITH INCREASING WLY FLOW. QUIET DAYTIME FRI WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THEN SCA CONDS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GALES ON THE OCEAN SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AND SCA CONDS ELSEWHERE AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA CONDS ALL WATERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD QUIET DOWN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. && .HYDROLOGY... LGT AMTS OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW SHWRS ON THU WILL PRODUCE BASIN AVG QPF OF LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH. LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND PASSING LOW TO THE SE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH...WITH ANY HIGHER AMTS OVER SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT QPF OF OVER AN INCH...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP MON NIGHT FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW...THEN AS MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN ON TUE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SURGE LOWERS FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING...WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCALES OF THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS...NY HARBOR...NE NJ...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT...WITH ANY BRIEF LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY BEING RELEGATED TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. && .CLIMATE... WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED. HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS... STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH FOR 2/14 FOR 2/14 NYC...........2 (1916) / 2.............17 (1979) / 16 LGA...........1 (1979) / 3.............15 (1979) / 18 JFK...........4 (1979) / 2.............17 (1979) / 17 ISP...........7 (2015) / 0.............26 (1987) / 15 EWR...........0 (1979) / 0.............15 (1979) / 19 BDR...........3 (2015*) / -1.............18 (1979) / 15 *IN 1979 AS WELL && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ074-075-080- 178-179. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...MPS MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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