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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 052056
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
FLURRIES...OR EVEN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
RADAR TRENDS KEEP THESE NORTH OF THE LOCAL CWA...AND LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AREA DRY. WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND REMOVE
POPS FROM THE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
THIS EVENING...SO ANY FLURRIES THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DRY UP BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR 2 ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...BUT DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST.

NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TO 15-20 MPH ACROSS NYC/SURROUNDING SUBURBS/LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN
CT. ARCTIC AIRMASS SINKS INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD AND DRY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRES ENTRENCHES
ITSELF JUST NORTH OF NY STATE. USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND ACTUALLY LOWER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 6.

THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND AN EASTERLY GRADIENT SETS UP FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THINK MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH
NEARLY CALM WINDS...AND THAT WOULD BE OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS WOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THERE. INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST...AND THAT WOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IN NYC.

LOW CONFIDENCE THAT RECORD LOW TEMPS WOULD BE SET DURING THIS
TIME.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS STORM MOVING UP THE
CAROLINA COAST AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS...HIGH PRESSURE FORM THE GULF
COAST APPROACHES THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE MILDER CONDITIONS. A COLD MAY PASS THROUGH
THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

WINDS GENERALLY N...5-10 KTS...INCREASING 10-12 KTS AFTER 02Z.
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS PSBL OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY END UP BEING MORE OCNL
IN NATURE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TOMORROW
MORNING.

INCREASING MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS TODAY. SCT 3000 FT CIGS PSBL LATE
AFTN...LOW CONFIDENCE OF BKN030. CIGS SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU-SAT...GENERALLY VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT PCPN PSBL IN THE MORNING.
.MON...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT PCPN PSBL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP FOR THE
OCEAN/SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS AS WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA...AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

SEAS MAY HOVER AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR A FEW
HOURS. TRANQUIL CONDS OTHERWISE EXPECTED.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$