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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 050252
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
952 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED TEMP GRIDS TO SHOW MOST AREAS EITHER ALREADY HAVING HIT
OR CURRENTLY COMING CLOSE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WAA...WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
GENERALLY HOLDING STEADY / SLOWING RISING TOWARDS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSIT THE AREA
TONIGHT...AS IT DEPARTS...SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING...OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL USHER IN MILDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE APPROX 10 DEG F WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A STEADY
SLY FLOW. WILL SEE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE WARM
SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...AND A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S SO ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
IN LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ALL AGREE THAT REGION WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN KEEPING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON DRIER THAN OTHER MODELS...SO LEANED TOWARDS NON- NAM
SOLUTIONS FOR QPF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO
WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO THE P-TYPE FRIDAY SHOULD BE
JUST RAIN. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
TO WORK ON CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO A WINTRY
MIX...MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF NYC...INCLUDING SOUTHERN CT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE FROM LATE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT APPEARS ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT...AND LIMITED TO MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SW CT.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS MADE BEYOND SATURDAY. JUST
SOME MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. AFTER MOSTLY FAIR WX ON SAT AND
SUNDAY... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND UP INTO ERN
CANADA BY MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WILL AFFECT THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE START TO RESULT IN SOME
FROZEN OR MIXED PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. TAF PERIOD FEATURES GRADUALLY LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND ISOLATED IFR...BECOMING MORE IFR
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A PERSISTENT
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT...IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS AS WELL
AS DURATION SO AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO BETTER REFINE THE
TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS. THE INITIAL START TIME OF MVFR
COULD BE DELAYED 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THERE
COULD BE SOME FLUCTUATION FROM MVFR TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR. -SHRA LATE WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT.
LIGHT SW FLOW.
.FRI...IFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN PERIODS OF RAIN. WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER LATE. CHC -SN/PL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS CONTINUE RATHER LIGHT
EARLY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SE LATE AT NIGHT.
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE WATERS.

WITH INCREASING SW FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SEAS BUILD TO
SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
WINDS HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THEN.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO SCA
LEVELS ON ALL WATERS...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SCA LEVEL SEAS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES INTO
SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED ON ALL WATERS
INTO FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS.

WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WITH
WIND/SEA BUOY CLIMATOLOGY FOLLOWED FOR THE SHELTERED WATERS
SURROUNDING LI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AROUND 1 INCH OF MAINLY
LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLY
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD
EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PICCA
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
EQUIPMENT...