-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
815
FXUS61 KOKX 290001
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
801 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough will move across
the area tonight with weak high pressure building from Sunday
into Monday. High pressure will then give way to a warm frontal
passage Monday night, followed by a cold frontal passage late
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Weak high pressure briefly takes
control on Wednesday into Thursday morning. A weak cold front
swings through late Thursday into Thursday night, followed by
high pressure late in the week into the first part of next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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The line of showers and thunderstorms that were moving through
PA has weakened considerably. There is still a chance for an
isolated thunderstorm across the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ,
and NYC where there has been enough time for some heating, but
as we approach sunset, the atmosphere should stabilize and the
threat for any thunder will continue to lower. Have taken out
any mention of thunder after 11 pm tonight.

The forecast area will also reside in a very muggy warm sector
tonight with dew points getting into the lower 70s before the
passage of the cold front. Lows tonight will be in the upper to
lower 70s. This is about 3 to 5 degrees above normal.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front passes to the south in the morning with weak high
pressure building in from the northwest into Monday. While a
somewhat drier airmass filters into the region, this will be
nothing more than a change in airmass. This will allow highs
both Sunday and Monday to top out in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
The warmest readings will be away from the immediate south shore
and twin forks of LI. Lows Sunday night will be a bit cooler
with the drier airmass, but still several degrees above normal.
Expect mostly clear skies during this time with the next chance
of rain toward Monday evening as a warm front approaches from
the southwest. Max heat indices during this time will get into
the lower 90s for portions of the area. Not expecting any heat
headlines during this time. NBM deterministic temperatures were
used and generally are at or just below the 25th percentile.
They are close to MOS if not a bit warmer. See no reason to
deviate at this time to higher values.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
* Seasonably warm and humid through Thursday

* Less humid towards the 4th of July

A typical summer air mass will be in places during the period. A
series of cold fronts are forecast to swing through, one late
Tuesday into Tuesday night and another cold front Thursday into
Thursday night.

The first of these cold fronts will bring the region a chance of
showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Due to
large scale trough swinging through likely PoPs remain for a good
portion of the region late Tuesday. Continued mention of chance
thunder due to forecast height falls and good agreement on trough
and frontal timing. Convective feedback in the models is making QPF
a challenge to forecast; the 06 GFS had close to 2" of QPF on the
north shore of Long Island, while the 12Z GFS had just a few
hundredths of an inch from 18Z Tue to 00Z Wed. WPC guidance looked
the best overall for QPF during this time frame.

Should be in between frontal boundaries and any shortwave features
on Wednesday into Thursday morning with weak high pressure in place
and mainly dry conditions expected for this time period.

Another cold front approaches Thursday, but at this time NWP is not
indicating as much dynamics and frontal forcing with this boundary.
It appears that this cold front will move through mainly dry for
much of the forecast area, with the best chances for any showers or
thunderstorms across the Lower Hudson Valley (low end chance POPs)
and therefore the front serves mainly to lower humidity levels late
in the week towards the 4th of July holiday with only a slight
chance of showers thunderstorms late Thursday and Thursday evening.

Conditions are expected to remain mainly dry Friday into the first
half of next weekend with high pressure in control.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front bring scattered shower activity this evening as it
moves across. The front moves south of the region overnight
into Sunday morning.

VFR conditions initially. Thunderstorms are no longer expected
with their probabilities decreased significantly enough in the
forecast to remove them from the TAFs. Just have vicinity
showers for NYC terminals and to the north and west except for
KSWF which has some shower activity prevailing between 0 and 1Z.

MVFR to LIFR possible with low clouds and fog overnight into
early Sunday morning, mainly east of NYC terminals as well as
potentially KHPN. With less rainfall however, there may not be
sufficient moisture and the fog may be more patchy than
previously forecast. Any low clouds and fog expected to
dissipate Sunday morning with VFR conditions thereafter.

Winds forecast are southerly near 10 kt, decreasing tonight into
early Sunday morning and becoming more variable in direction for
some terminals with otherwise a more westerly wind direction
developing. The westerly flow backs to a more southerly flow for
coastal terminals Sunday afternoon with the sea breeze
developing.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence on shower activity. Conditions may very well end
up just staying dry with the cold front passage tonight.

Low confidence on the MVFR fog developing late tonight into
early Sunday morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR during the day. A chance of showers and thunderstorms at
night. MVFR or lower possible at night.

Tuesday: Showers with a chance of thunderstorms with MVFR or
lower possible, especially afternoon and evening. SW wind gusts
15-20 kt day into early eve.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, but MVFR possible afternoon into early
eve showers and thunderstorms possible for NYC terminals and
north and west.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Monday with weak high
pressure influencing the waters.

Wind gusts and waves should start to approach SCA conditions for the
central and eastern ocean waters Tuesday afternoon, with small craft
conditions likely Tuesday night into early Wednesday in response to
a cold front. Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions return into mid and
late week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns outside of minor nuisance, poor drainage
flooding issues with any thunderstorms.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a moderate risk of rip current development across the ocean
beaches Sunday and Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...