Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 230815 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 415 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NYC WILL PASS EASTERN LI AND SE CT BY DAYBREAK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING... AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THU AS IT IT TRACKS SLOWLY EAST, THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A STRONG NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFT. WINDS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY STRATA CU WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PREFERRED THE COLDER MET MOS. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NW WINDS AND DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING. ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND 30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT TODAY. VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 11-12Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH ISO -SHRA AND REDUCED VSBYS PRECEDING WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WNW. WINDS GENERALLY WNW BEFORE AROUND 12Z...THEN NW THEREAFTER. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT FOR THE CITY TERMINALS BEFORE 09Z. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE. WIND DIRECTION IN THE CITY FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25KT. .THU...VFR. NW G30KT. .FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR. .SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR. .SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT. && .MARINE...
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NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340- 345-350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JC MARINE...BC/DW FIRE WEATHER...DW HYDROLOGY...BC/DW

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