Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 291143 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 743 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track out to sea today, allowing high pressure to build in on Thursday. Low pressure will impact the area Thursday night through Saturday. High pressure builds in for Sunday through Monday night. Another area of low pressure affects the region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Forecast is on track, only minor changes made to reflect current observations. Low pressure south of Nantucket will continue to track out to sea today. A 1030s high building southward over Ontario will combine with the exiting low to produce northerly winds into tonight. Residual low clouds will burn off this morning, then fair weather cumulus should develop this afternoon as convective temperatures are reached. Moderate mixing will allow for temperatures to eclipse highs of the past few days, despite the essentially cooler airmass. The guidance was in good agreement so a blend was used. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... High pressure drifts across the forecast area resulting in fair weather and light winds. Mid and high clouds will filter out the sunshine from time to time. A blend of the guidance, which was in good agreement, was used for temperatures. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Operational models are in fairly good agreement in the long term. High pressure at the surface pushes off the New England coast Thursday night. Warm air advection allows clouds to lower and thicken, with precipitation moving in mainly late Thursday night as a weakening surface low form the mid-West approaches. Precipitation may start out as a brief period of wintry mix inland. Little, if any accumulation is expected. Precipitation continues into Friday, with plain rain everywhere by the afternoon. The rain may come down moderate to heavy at times Friday night as a secondary low develops off the mid-Atlantic coast, creating a decent amount of lift throughout the column to support the heavier rainfall. Precipitable water values exceeding an inch late Friday night is well above the average for the date, given climatology. After some lingering showers Saturday morning, surface high pressure builds in thereafter, keeping the area dry through the rest of the weekend into Monday. High pressure pushes off the East Coast on Monday night, allowing for another low to affect the area Tuesday. Temperatures during the long term will be seasonable, with the exception of Friday and Saturday. Cloudy skies and rain will keep temperatures below normal these days. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure departs this morning. A cold front pushes through the region this afternoon...with high pressure building towards the area tonight. Bands of MVFR cigs expected to gradually improve to VFR through 15z...then conds remain VFR through the TAF period. NW Gusts of 20-25 kt likely through the morning...perhaps weakening a bit in the early/mid afternoon...before re- invigorating late afternoon into early eve. NW gusts likely last for metro terminals into the start of the evening push...diminishing after 00 to 02z. Winds expected to be right of 310 magnetic through the period. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: NW gusts 20-25 kt during morning push and continuing into at least the start of evening push. Winds expected to be right of 310 magnetic. Gusts may weaken a bit during the early/mid afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: NW gusts 20-25 kt during morning push and continuing into at least the start of evening push. Winds expected to be right of 310 magnetic. Gusts may weaken a bit during the early/mid afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: NW gusts 20-25 kt during morning push and continuing into at least the start of evening push. Winds expected to be right of 310 magnetic. Gusts may weaken a bit during the early/mid afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: NW gusts 20-25 kt during morning push and continuing into at least the start of evening push. Winds expected to be right of 310 magnetic. Gusts may weaken a bit during the early/mid afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: NW gusts 20-25 kt during morning push and continuing into at least the start of evening push. Gusts may weaken a bit during the early/mid afternoon. KISP TAF Comments: NW gusts 20-25 kt developing during morning push and continuing into at least the start of evening push. Peak gusts to 25 kt. Gusts may weaken a bit during the early/mid afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Thursday...VFR. AM NW winds backing W in PM. .Friday...MVFR/IFR conditions in rain developing in the AM for metro terminals...with IFR in wintry mix possible for northern terminals. MVFR/IFR conditions in rain likely in the afternoon. .Friday night and Saturday...MVFR/IFR in rain likely...gradual improvement on Saturday. E/NE winds G20-30KT at coastal terminals. .Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... Northerly winds will increase today as low pressure tracks out to sea. Winds could approach Small Craft Advisory levels tonight on the ocean, before diminishing again on Thursday. Winds should remain below 25 kt through Friday morning. An approaching frontal system will increase the pressure gradient across the waters and bring wind gusts along the ocean waters to 25 kt to 30 kt Friday afternoon into Saturday (a brief lull possible late Friday night). Peconic and Gardiner`s Bays may see gusts 25 kt to 30 kt late Friday night into Saturday, while the back bays may see 25 kt gusts Friday night. Winds diminish Saturday night, and remain below SCA criteria for the rest of the long term. Waves build to 5 to 8 ft on the ocean Friday night into Saturday morning, then diminish Saturday night, but should remain above 5 ft through Sunday morning. Thereafter, waves remain below 5 ft through the rest of the long term. && .HYDROLOGY... Between 1 and 1.5 inches of QPF is possible from Thursday night through Saturday. Locally higher amounts are possible. At this time, flooding is not expected, though some minor urban and poor drainage flooding is possible during this time frame. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Isolated minor tidal flooding is possible tonight due to high astronomical tides. An approaching low pressure system will likely bring some minor coastal flood impacts to vulnerable coastal communities during the Friday Night high tide. Tidal departures of 1 to 1 1/2 ft are needed to reach minor flood levels and 2 to 2 1/2 ft for moderate flood levels during that time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...12/JP NEAR TERM...12/JP SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...NV MARINE...12/JP HYDROLOGY...JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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