Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280453 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1153 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE NOR`EASTER. HE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND USHER IN VERY COLD AIR ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...THEN EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHERN CT AND SUFFOLK COUNTY IS BEST DETECTED BY THE LATEST RAP. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS DISSIPATES BEFORE SUNRISE. THE KOKX RADAR SHOWED THE MOST ENHANCED AREA PASSING RIGHT OVER THE OFFICE WHERE 2-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH HAS FALLEN. THUS...CALLING THIS OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. AGAIN - ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED. WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW. TEMPS FALL 3-5 DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS PERSISTING. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH CHILLY TEMPS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH TEMPS MID 20S TO AROUND 30...WITH LOWS FROM ZERO TO THE TEENS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTENING WINDS AND SNOW COVER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING EXITS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE QUICK ON ITS HEELS. FOR NOW APPEARS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER FAR WESTERN ZONES. THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEEPER FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...WHOSE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY.HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW AS A RESULT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THEN CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A SUB-ADVISORY (LESS THAN 3 INCH) SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WERE USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE MINIMUM OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN A DEGREE WAS SUBTRACTED TO REFLECT THE INFLUENCE OF SNOW COVER. LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-875 HPA WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS THE WARMEST SOLUTION...THE CANADIAN THE COLDEST AND FASTEST...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN. NOTING THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A SOLUTION TO THE SE OF THE GFS...LEANED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY COOLER VERSION OF THE GFS SOLUTION. SO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST AND SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST AS A RESULT. FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRES E OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT NWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO THE MARITIMES ON WED. MAINLY VFR ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND WESTERN TERMINALS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. BDR/KISP WILL SEE MVFR CONDS...POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR...THROUGH AROUND 08Z WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS TODAY...MORE LIKELY FEW-SCT 2500 FT. MVFR CONDS AT KGON EARLY THIS MORNING IN -SN...BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW BANDS DIMINISH TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 330-360 MAGNETIC THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL FOR WESTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME FREQUENT ONCE AGAIN AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WED NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS. .THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW. .FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE MRNG WITH SNOW. NW WINDS 20-30KT. .SAT...VFR. .SUN...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SCA GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...BUT REMAINS RATHER ROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SCA LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION MAKES GALE CONDITIONS PROBABLE ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH ONLY SCA LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY AFTERNOON. SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME OR MOST OF THIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION...SO LITTLE OR NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE WARMEST SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM VERIFIES...THEN MOST OF THIS COULD BE OF LIQUID FORM...AND COULD PRODUCE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS JUST RECEIVING A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...JMC/NV MARINE...MALOIT/TONGUE/PW HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW

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