Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281115 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 615 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND PUSH SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH JUST A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND HOURLY T/TD THIS MORNING BASED ON OBS/RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE FRONT WILL PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM N TO S. A COLDER AIRMASS THEN BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. THE COLDEST OF THE AIRMASS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL ENSUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PERIOD FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS WITH LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWS FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS STRONG AND COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES DROPS FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN EXTENSION OF THIS HIGH WILL REACH ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST WITH DRY CONDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH MON EVE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TUE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY TUE. ONE OTHER NOTE ABOUT TUE...NAM/SREF ARE THE ONLY SOLNS INDICATING ANY PCPN ON TUE. THE H5 SHORTWAVE IN THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER THAN ANY OTHER SOLNS AND IS WHAT IS CAUSING SUCH A DIFFERENCE. SINCE MANY OF THE SREF MEMBERS HAVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NAM HAVE DISCOUNTED THESE SOLNS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TUE AND HAVE REMOVED SCHC POPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES EAST SLOWLY MIDWEEK INTO LATE WEEK. THIS PUSHES HEIGHTS UP TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS GIVES MORE OF A RIDGING PATTERN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BELIEVE THE ECMWF MORE THAN THE GFS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...TAKING A MUCH SLOWER TRACK FOR THIS. THE COLD AIR MASS SLATED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LAST THAT LONG. WED AND THU...WHEN THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR MASS IS IN PLACE...HIGHS HOVER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ON AVERAGE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY LATE WEEK. WEATHER IS MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MUCH UNCERTAINTY THOUGH SINCE THIS IS DAY 8 OF THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...THESE POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT WITH MODEL RUN FLUCTUATIONS BEING MORE LIKELY AT THIS VERY LATE FORECAST TIME FRAME WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TONIGHT. S/SW WINDS VEER TO THE WSW THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN TO THE WEST AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE PROB OF MVFR CIGS IN -SHRA DEVELOPING AT KSWF THIS MORNING. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND -SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS. IMPROVING CONDS LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH -SHRA ENDING. VFR TONIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW VEERING NW TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU... .MON-THU...VFR. ONLY A SLIGHT PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW AND SUB- VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUE.
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&& .MARINE... SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...VEERING WSW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA...BUT SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATER SUN THROUGH MON. A LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS TUE/TUE NIGHT ON EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE/S TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS MAY BE WED NIGHT THRU THU WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW. && .HYDROLOGY... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353. && $$

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