Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 030245 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1045 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE FOG ACROSS METRO NY AND MAINLY CONFINED IT TO THE OUTLYING SUBURBS. THE MAIN AREA AGAIN LOOKS TO BE EASTERN LI/SE CT. A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS AND THE COVERAGE. LAST NIGHT IT WAS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SIMILAR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200 J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI- STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MOVING IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. VFR INITIALLY BUT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN FOG OVERNIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO FORECAST. SOME ISOLATED CONDITIONS OF BELOW IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WIND SPEED EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 10 KT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. .OUTLOOK FOR 03Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. .FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT. .SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE. LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET/NV NEAR TERM...MET/DW SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...JM MARINE...MET/NV HYDROLOGY...MET/NV

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