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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 071001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
501 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY...AND DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN BAND OF PCPN IS NOW OFFSHORE PER RADAR AND STLT. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WX ADVY AS A RESULT. ONLY SOME RESIDUAL
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND VERIFIED BY
OBS. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED DOWN TO KFRG AND KISP ON LI.

FOLLOWED THE HRRR TIL 11Z FOR THE RESIDUAL LGT PCPN THIS MRNG.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES AND NLY FLOW TODAY. EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD WAS INVOF PORT JERVIS...AND ADVECTING EWD...AT 330 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODIFYING ARCTIC HI WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA TNGT. MSAS ANALYSIS AT
8Z PLACED THE 1044 CENTER OF THE HI OVER ERN MT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD TEMPS WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
PINE BARRENS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
TO FILTER IN FROM THE SW.

AN INCREASING HIGH OVC CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUN WITH BACKING MID AND
UPR LVL FLOW. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN IN THE AFTN. GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW LIFT IS FAIRLY ROBUST AFT 18Z...SO IT WILL JUST BE A
MATTER OF HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR SATURATION AND PCPN...WHICH BASED
ON THE 00Z SUITE OF DATA WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN
MIXED IN ON LI AND IN THE CITY. FCST HAS BEEN SPED UP WITH MOST
SPOTS WITH CHCS FOR SNOW BY DARK. BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM...LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY 5 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK AND THEN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE POLAR
VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY...WHICH WILL ROTATE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN US. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES PHASING WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN
US...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
REGION WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BASED ON CLOSLEY CLUSTERED CONSENSUS TRACK OF A DOUBLE
BARRELED COASTAL LOW...A TRANSITION TO RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS...PARTICULARLY NW ZONES...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE
POSSIBLE WITH EVEN A BRIEF TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. SREF
PLUMES INDICATING A MEAN OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS FAR NW
ZONES...WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS FOR CITY COAST. THIS COULD
MAKE FOR A WINTRY MORNING COMMUTE FOR INTERIOR AREAS...WHILE AT
THE CITY/COAST ROADS SHOULD MAINLY BE WET WITH RAIN AND RISING
TEMPS.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION WITH DRYING CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY...BUT THE
FRONT LINGERS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
FOR ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO POSSIBLY BRUSH THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS TIME BASED ON MODEL SPREAD.

THEN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...MODEL INDICATING SEVERAL
PIECES OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER CANADA SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN
US. CURRENTLY HAVE TRENDED TEMPS TO STAY BELOW FREEZING FROM
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY BASED ON ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER TEEN/LOWER 20S
FOR HIGHS LATE WEEK IF POLAR VORTEX DROPS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/SE CANADA AS DEPICTED BY SOME MODEL GUIDANCE. STAY TUNED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAIN PRECIP SHIELD HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE
AND ISOLATED LIGHT RASN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 10-12Z. WITH
TEMPS AT FREEZING AT KSWF POTETNIAL EXISTS FOR -FZDZ THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK.

IFR/MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM W TO E AFTER
11-13Z...WITH VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. ISOLD GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE AT KLGA/KEWR THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WINDS/GUSTS DIMINISH
SAT AFTN/EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT...IFR. SNOW...THEN SNOW/SLEET/RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND
SNOW/SLEET ACROSS INTERIOR.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. WINTRY MIX ACROSS INTERIOR EARLY...THEN RAIN.
SE WINDS 10-15 KT...BCMG NW LATE.
.MON NIGHT...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. W WINDS AOB 10 KT.
.TUE...VFR. W WINDS AOB 10 KT.
.WED...VFR. W WIND 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TODAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER OFF MONTAUK...SO THE SCA HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THRU THE EVE FOR THE ERN MOST OCEAN ZONE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN WITH HIPRES OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ONTHE OCEAN AND LI SOUND WATERS...POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT OCEAN SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS. MARGINAL SCA
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN. THE NEXT TIME OF CONCERN WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
AN ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU THE DAY ON SUN.

A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING AROUND HALF INCH TO AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FROM LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD
EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
EQUIPMENT...