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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 281233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND USHERS IN VERY COLD AIR STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN PASSES NEAR THE
REGION ON MONDAY. MORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SKIES HAD CLEARED...BUT ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ATTM
OVER SW CT AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND MIGHT PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES
THERE THIS MORNING.

WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW.

DESPITE SUN...WINDS KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND HIGH ALBEDO
FROM THE FRESH SNOW KEEPS MAX TEMPS CONFINED TO THE MID 20S.
USED 1-2 DEGREES BELOW THE LOWEST OF THE COMBINED MOS FOR HIGHS.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE 10 TO 15 ABOVE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT. SKC AND LIGHT
WIND. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO INLAND. MID TEENS
FOR THE CITY AND AROUND 10 ON LONG ISLAND. AGAIN...THE LOWER OF THE
MOS WAS USED AND LOWERED 1-2 DEGREES FROM THERE. FEEL THESE MIGHT
STILL BE TOO WARM...BUT USUALLY LOOSE WHEN TRYING TO OUT FORECAST
MOS TOO MUCH.

WAA ADVECTION SET UP ON THURSDAY WITH CLOUD COVER THICKENING AND
LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT TO BE OVC BY MID AFTN EVEN OUT
EAST. TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD - AROUND 30...LOWER 30`S NY METRO AND
LONG ISLAND.

KEEP POPS JUST WEST OF ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM PER CONSENSUS OF
LATEST NWP INCLUDING SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE. TWO SYSTEMS - THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND THEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY`S CLIPPER SYSTEM
AS NWP HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. EXPECTING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL. HAVE
KEPT THIS MOSTLY SNOW - THOUGH A WET SNOW FOR THE COAST.
PROBABILISTIC SNOW GRAPHICS AND DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT:
WEATHER.GOV/OKX/WINTER

CLIPPER PULLS AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MASSIVE DROP
IN TEMPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY. HAVE SOME
CONCERN FOR A FLASH FREEZING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING
COMMUTE. FCST MID TEENS IN THE CITY BY 7 PM.

WINDS HOWL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AMBIENT TEMPS TO NEAR ZERO INLAND WITH
MID SINGLE DIGITS AT THE COAST. LOOKS LIKELY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES !!

JUMPING TO NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK OUT OF TEXAS. NWP HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
HAVE RAISED POPS ALONG WITH ALL SURROUND NWS OFFICES TO LIKELY. HAVE
NOT ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CONTINUE WITH THE COLD SOLUTION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN (NOT THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH IS WARM)
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF. CMC IS WARMEST I`VE
SEEN - ALL RAIN AND A LOT OF IT (DON`T NEED THAT EITHER).

WILL ADD THIS TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR AS LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE FARTHER AWAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...
AT SPEEDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. EXPECT DIMINISHING
NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC TODAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC TODAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC TODAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC TODAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR.
.THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING...IFR CONDS LIKELY IN SNOW AS DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES KSWF/KHPN.
.FRI AFTERNOON-NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT...INCREASING
AT NIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY...AS ANOTHER
LOW IMPACTS THE AREA. LOW TRACK AND THEREFORE DETAILS ON PRECIP
TYPE AND WINDS UNCERTAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
THE NOR`EASTER WEAKENS AND EXITS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SCA GUSTS CONTINUE TODAY FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SCA LEVEL
SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
MAKES GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADDED TO FORECAST WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW SST`S.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A HALF AN INCH OR SO OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME OR MOST OF THIS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION...SO
LITTLE OR NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A WARM
SOLUTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A POSSIBLE AND MOST PRECIPITATION
COULD BE OF LIQUID WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS JUST RECEIVING A FOOT
OR MORE OF SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW