Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241420 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 920 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain steady over the western Atlantic through tonight. A frontal system approaches Saturday and crosses the region Saturday Night. High pressure builds towards the area Sunday into Monday. A couple of fast moving disturbances may bring unsettled conditions to area Monday Night into the middle and late part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... East coast ridging and western atlantic high pressure control the region today. Weak cold front stalled just north of the region early this morning...will retreat north as a warm front during the morning. An isolated shower possible across NW hills this morning with approaching weak shortwave...but most concentrated activity will be across central NY/New england. With region in warm sector...another early spring like day today. Model soundings and high-res guidance continue to show potential for stratus/fog to briefly developing across LI/SE CT around daybreak...but confidence on this is low as models are overdoing the initialization of the current state of stratus/fog. With that said...a 50 Td airmass running over the low-mid 40 degree waters today have climo and high res guidance pointing towards advection fog/stratus developing along the NJ coast and working northward towards the south and east coastal areas this aft/eve. Across the interior...patchy fog should mix out during the morning...and expectation is for mostly sunny skies this afternoon with just some high/mid deck filtering sunshine. With SW flow aloft and plenty of sunshine...temps across NYC metro/NE NJ/Lower Hud/and interior SW Ct should be able to climb well into the 60s...with lower 70s for areas W of the Hudson River with deeper mixing. Marine influence will likely limit temps to the 50s for coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... East coast ridging tonight...will give way to a central plains PAC upper low shearing into Hudson bay low on Saturday...with associated trough and frontal system swinging towards the region late in the day and then though Sat night. Coastal stratus/fog development are favored in a second night of mild/moist southerly flow tonight. Models soundings and high- res/SREF guidance strongly indicating more widespread stratus/fog development across much of the region tonight...which may linger across CT/LI much of the day with low-level flow backing more to the s/se. Temps will likely be cooler on Sat with more of an onshore flow and cloud cover...with temps ranging from well into the 60s for areas well NW and W of the Hudson...to 50s for south and east coastal areas once again. Not much in the way of forcing or focus for rain overnight into Sat morning...so shower threat should be isolated at best. Can`t rule our some patchy drizzle development later tonight into Sat morning as well if low-levels saturate sufficiently...but low confidence at this point. Main rain activity will be along and immediately behind an approaching frontal system. A narrow band of convection will likely approach from PA/NY along the leading edge of the front late Sat into Sat eve...with strong convergence of marginally unstable and +2- 3 std PWAT airmass advecting in along a 40 kt llj...aided by approaching shortwave axis forcing. Potential for a brief period of heavy rain...30-40 mph wind gusts and embedded thunder with this line...mainly west of the Hudson...as there should be some weak surface/elevated instability to work with. This line should weaken as it encounters the stable marine layer along the coast. Otherwise...some lighter post frontal activity Sat eve ahead of approaching shortwave axis...before shifting offshore by around midnight. In the wake of the shortwave axis/cold front Sat night...a dry and cooler airmass will build in on breezy NW flow. With strong caa and deep mixing in wake of cold front...winds gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds towards the area on Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the low to mid 40s with low temperatures Sunday night in the low to mid 30s along the coast and upper 20s inland. High pressure moves offshore Monday, as a storm system moves out of the mid Atlantic states Monday night and Tuesday. A chance of rain and snow are possible with the storm system. Light rain is possible again on Tuesday night and into early Wednesday as a warm front pushes north of the region Wednesday, followed by a cold front later Wednesday. High Pressure builds behind the cold front on Thursday. Temperatures during this period should be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Late spring-like pattern with a warm front north over central NY State and New England with convection along it. A cold front approaches from the west on Saturday. VFR today with a light south-southwest flow. The forecast question of the day is the development of Fog and Stratus later today and overnight along the coast. Latest thinking is more optimistic forecast. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Lots of uncertainty on development of fog and status this evening. KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence in VFR through the day. Uncertainty with development of fog and status late this evening. KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in VFR through the day. Uncertainty with development of fog and status late this evening. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence in VFR through the day. KHPN TAF Comments: High confidence in VFR through the day. KISP TAF Comments: Lots of uncertainty on development of fog and status this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Saturday...Mainly IFR or lower in the morning before possibly improving to MVFR or VFR. .Saturday night...MVFR or lower likely with rain. .Sunday...VFR. .Monday...VFR. .Tuesday...Possible MVFR in showers.
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&& .MARINE... Persistent S/SW flow around western atlantic high pressure and long period east swells of around 10 will have seas hovering around 4 to 5 ft through Saturday morning. Will hold off of SCA due to marginal nature of hazard. Increasing potential for dense fog over the nearshore waters tonight into Saturday morning...which may linger until cold frontal passage Sat evening. Ocean seas should gradually build to SCA levels Saturday afternoon ahead of a cold front...with marginal SCA gusts possible. Higher confidence is in SCA gusts in the wake of frontal passage Sat Night...with even potential for a brief period of gale gusts. SCA conditions expected to continue across the ocean waters on Sunday. Winds and waves will then gradually subside Sunday night into Monday as high pressure moves south of the area. The next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions will be Monday night into Tuesday as winds strengthen following a warm frontal passage. Winds and seas may remain at or near Small Craft Advisory conditions through late week ahead of a cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... A quarter to one half of an inch of rain is likely Saturday...with locally up to an inch. No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week. && .CLIMATE... The following are record high temperatures for Today February 24, 2017 along with the forecast high temperature. Record High Temperature Forecast High Temperature ----------------------- ------------------------- Central Park........75 (1985) 68 LaGuardia...........73 (1985) 67 Kennedy.............60 (1984) 57 Islip...............59 (2000) 56 Newark..............73 (1985) 70 Bridgeport..........60 (2016) 56 The following are record maximum minimum temperatures for Saturday February 25, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature. Record Max Minimum Temperature Forecast Minimum Temperature ------------------------------ ---------------------------- Central Park........51 (1930) 50 LaGuardia...........49 (1996) 50 Kennedy.............46 (1996) 48 Islip...............47 (1996) 47 Newark..............47 (1996) 47 Bridgeport..........44 (1996) 46 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...Tongue MARINE...Fig/NV HYDROLOGY...Fig/NV CLIMATE...

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