Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241553 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1153 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the north today, remain over the region through the weekend, then drift offshore on Monday. A cold front will impact the region toward the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Temperatures and dew points were updated to reflect the latest observations and trends. Low level moisture attempts to pool from New Jersey northward into the Hudson Valley due to weak onshore flow this afternoon. This will enhance surface based instability. The models suggest some showers will break out in these areas as a result, but the models have been too sensitive when inducing convection, so when coupled with synoptic scale subsidence, the forecast has been kept dry. A combination of the MAV, MET and Superblend was used for temperatures. There is a moderate risk for rip current development today at Atlantic Ocean beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area, but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow, particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET. Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s. A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this front. Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure builds back over the region. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure builds in through the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected. East winds become more southeast this afternoon. Wind speeds will be 10-15 kt with some occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible into this afternoon. Winds back to more easterly flow later tonight and decrease to near 5-10 kt. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. KISP TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY... .Tonight-Sunday Night...VFR. .Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late. .Monday Night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE... Updated winds and gusts over the ocean waters to lower a few knots based on current conditions. High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop. && .HYDROLOGY... The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...FEB/JM MARINE...BC/MET HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC

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