Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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171 FXUS61 KOKX 241747 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 147 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front moves across the region today, with an unsettled weather pattern continuing through the weekend and into the middle of next week. The warm front north of the region retrogrades back into the region as a back door cold front Saturday night and will be west of the area Sunday. The front returns to the region Sunday night into Monday and then passes east of the region Monday night. Another system approaches Tuesday and moves across Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High pressure returns thereafter. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Radar indicates showers were tracking southeastward through the area, and at least some measurable is likely for most of the area. The forecast has been updated accordingly. Temperatures are well above freezing with any sleet signatures on radar now remaining north of the forecast area. As a result, only rain has been forecast. As the mid level energy exists the region late this afternoon, the rain will end. The back edge shows up on radar approaching Port Jervis at 17Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Any precipitation will quickly taper off by evening as the short wave moves east of the area and the warm front moves to the north. Dry conditions will be short-lived overnight. By morning, an upper low approaches from the west, increasing forcing for ascent, and in combination with a back door cold front subsequently increases precipitation chances through Saturday evening. Temperatures tonight will be nearly steady as warm advection continues through the night amidst southwesterly flow. By Saturday afternoon temperatures will finally be close to climatological normals, though a cooling trend will be noted late in the day from northeast to southwest as the back door cold front begins to move through. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Overall, an increasingly maritime airmass will be getting entrained into the region from a persistent easterly flow. Rain will ultimately be intermittent with some drizzle from time to time for the remainder of the weekend. Not much of a diurnal temperature range expected for the remainder of the weekend either. Patchy fog is expected Saturday night through Sunday evening as boundary layer becomes saturated from the continuous easterly flow. Rain continues Monday with some more synoptic forcing ahead of the shortwave and surface frontal system moving in. The chances for rain lower Monday night as these aforementioned features move east of the region. Chances for rain are slow to drop off because of increasing uncertainty in the model precipitation fields this timeframe. Rain could linger longer early next week if the frontal system is slower. Aloft, there will be a flattening ridge with the polar jet moving farther north of the region Saturday night. The flattening ridge axis moves across on Sunday. An embedded shortwave on the back end of the ridge approaches Sunday night and moves across Monday. Brief ridging then takes place Monday night into Tuesday. There will be another shortwave moving across Tuesday night. A ridge to the west then starts to build in thereafter for midweek. Starting Saturday night, the surface features to note will be a front retrograding southwest within the region and strengthening high pressure building southeast from Quebec into Maine. The front is a back door cold front. On Sunday, the high pressure area will be moving into the Gulf of Maine and easterly flow will keep a cool marine airmass. The front moves east back into the area Sunday night into Monday with a weak low developing along the front. The flow becomes more southerly. The front and low along it move east of the region Monday night. Another frontal system approaches Tuesday afternoon and moves across Tuesday night. High pressure starts to build in thereafter for midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Potential for some light precipitation early this afternoon...but otherwise dry. A backdoor cold front will cross the region Saturday. Mainly VFR through late tonight but there`s a low chance of MVFR or lower at coastal terminals late. By midday Saturday, the front approaches and then passes through with low clouds and some drizzle developing. Conditions deteriorating to MVFR and then IFR during the midday and afternoon hours. LIFR is possible. S-SSW winds this afternoon 10-20 kt with Gusts to 25 kt. Good chance of gusts to near 30 kt at KISP and KJFK. Winds diminish overnight. On Saturday, winds near 15 kt veer to NW and then NE Saturday afternoon as the front moves through. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight. High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday. Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed of the front. KLGA TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight. High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday. Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed of the front. KEWR TAF Comments:Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight. High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday. Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed of the front. KTEB TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight. High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday. Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed of the front. KHPN TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight. High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday. Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed of the front. KISP TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight. High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday. Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed of the front. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday afternoon-Monday...MVFR/IFR probable in stratus, possibly LIFR. .Monday night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower possible.
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&& .MARINE... Winds and seas increase this afternoon with the pressure gradient tightening as high pressure moves east and an area of low pressure approaches from the northwest. Expecting all but NY Harbor to see SCA conds in the afternoon, with advisory conds continuing into the night for the ocean, Eastern Sound and Eastern Bays. Isolated gusts to 35 KT are possible east of Moriches Inlet for a brief period this afternoon, though will likely not be widespread enough for a Gale Warning. Lingering seas around 5 ft are possible on the ocean waters through Saturday afternoon. Initially Saturday evening features sub SCA conditions across the waters. However, SCA conditions resume for the ocean waters late Saturday night lasting through much of the remainder of the weekend for the ocean with easterly flow increasing. Other waters stay below SCA. Sub SCA conditions return Monday and Monday night and stay that way for non-ocean waters through Tuesday. The ocean will have a return to SCA conditions Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system. && .HYDROLOGY... Model run accumulation of rain could reach 0.75 to 1.5 inches with locally higher amounts possible for the period Saturday through early next week. This is over a long enough time period to not have too much excessive runoff. Therefore, not expecting flooding and there are no hydrologic concerns at this time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ330-340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD/JM NEAR TERM...12 SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...IRD MARINE...MD/JM HYDROLOGY...MD/JM

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