Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251816 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 116 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WELL...PANCAKE STRATO-CU HAS FILLED A LOT MORE THAN EXPECTED. THE SUN WAS NICE WHILE IT LASTED. NARRE-TL HAD NO CLUE ON THESE CLOUDS AS SEEN IN RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS UNDER ESTIMATING SATURATION AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING STARTING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS LAYER IS THIN. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL OFF FROM HERE INTO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... GUSTY WINDS LAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...WITH ITS AXIS BUILDING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THEN SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECM/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WITH EXCEPTION OF 24/12Z CMC GPDS - MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...ENDS UP STALLING OUT TO FAR TO THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE FRONT HAVE LITTLE, IF ANY, IMPACT ON THE AREA. TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS ARE WITH THE INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WAVE. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONLY RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE N AND RIDGING OFF THE FL COAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO DETERMINING THE EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT. FOR NOW APPEARS STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...OTHERWISE HAVE GONE DRY OVER LAND MONDAY- TUESDAY NIGHT. LIKELY WILL BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE LOWEST LAYERS TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR NOW THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AS THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING PASSING OVER THE AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY WITH VFR AND A STRONG SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 35 KT AT NYC METRO UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. BKN-45-050 CIGS SHOULD SCATTER BY ABOUT 21Z AS WELL. WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUST HIGHER THAN FCST THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .FRI-SAT...VFR. .SUNDAY...MVFR WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. .MON...VFR. .TUE...LOW CONFIDENCE VFR. && .MARINE... GALE WARNING...WINDS NOW GUSTING TO GALE FORCE ON LAND IN THE NYC AREA AND THIS WILL MOVE OUT OVER ALL WATERS BY NOON. THIS EVENING...WINDS LOWER TO SCA LEVEL QUICKLY THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF TO BELOW SCA LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...BC/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...MALOIT

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