Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 010608 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 208 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FORECAST ON TRACK OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NW ZONES PER MESO MODELS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE NJ. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL... HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY...WHILE A WEAK FRONT AND WAVE APPROACH FROM THE SE LATE TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY N&W OF NYC METRO. ELSEWHERE LOW PROB OF AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND LIKELY AT KEWR/KTEB. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDS IN SHRA ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT...SHRA LIKELY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE. LOW PROB FOR TSRA. .SUN-SUN NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE. .MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT... WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF CELLS. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS NEAR TERM...LN/MPS/PW SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...NV MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS

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