Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 301144 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 744 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW ON TUE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING A BATCH OF RADAR RETURNS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO ERN PA THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. 00Z KOKX SOUNDING WAS DRY WITH ONLY 0.12 PW. LLVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO ERN LI AND CT WHERE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN HAS PROVIDED SOME MOISTENING. PCPN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCT AND LGT. THE COLUMN APPEARS COLD ENOUGH BASED ON THE 00Z MODELS TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE MIXED WITH RAIN THRU 12Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE MRNG HRS AS BOTH THE BL AND MID LVLS WARM. PCPN CHCS MAINLY TIL 16Z...THEN THEY DROP QUICKLY. THE CDFNT OVER OH AT 7Z REACHES ORANGE COUNTY PER THE 12Z NAM RIGHT ABOUT 18Z. IT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA AND CLEARS THE AREA BY 00Z. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW HRS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE DARK. MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE DATA SUGGESTS WIND WILL KEEPS THINGS SLIGHTLY STIRRED UP...THEREBY KEEPING TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT...LOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WERE USED WITH MINS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. IF WINDS DECOUPLE...AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WILL NEED TO BE CHOPPED OFF THE FCST ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... SYS CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL RACE TOWARDS THE AREA WITH THE SFC LOW REACHING THE NYC LONGITUDE APPROXIMATELY 00Z WED. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SPEED...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE EXACT N-S TRACK. THE ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST S...WITH THE NAM AND GFS CLUSTERED CLOSELY WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS CNTRL NJ. THE SREF MEAN WAS SLIGHLY FURTHER N. POPS FOR INCREASED TO JUST BLW LIKELY BY LATE AFTN. THIS TRACK COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT A COLD ENOUGH COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR SNOW. WITH THE BL INITIALLY WARM...LGT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN. SRN AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM WRN NJ ZONES THRU THE CITY AND ONTO LI...TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM FOR A CHANGE BACK TO RAIN...OR IT MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL RAIN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 00Z FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT ANY RAIN OR SNOW...WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. QPF TOTALS ARE GENERALLY ON THE LOW END WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S. NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING STRAIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...17Z TO 21Z. AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH...FROM NEAR KHPN TO JUST EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS WAS TRACKING EAST AT 25 KT. VFR...EXCEPT IN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD BE SNOW...MARGINAL CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY. PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE TERMINALS...KGON...AROUND 16Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST...280 TO 300 TRUE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT...MOST GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS END THIS EVENING...00Z TO 03Z. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 27 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 28 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 290 TRUE. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 300 TRUE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY 13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 290 TRUE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY 14Z. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN BEFORE ENDING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND 15Z. HIGHEST GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND REMAINS LEFT OF 280 TRUE. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUESDAY...VFR. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING -RA/SN. .TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -SN. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. .THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. POSSIBLE LLWS. .FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE... SW WIND INCREASE TODAY TO SCA LVLS...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVE...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABV SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ON ALL WATERS TUE AS LOW PRES TRACKS QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUGH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... TRACE AMTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE NGT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC NEAR TERM...BC/JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...MET MARINE...BC/JMC HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC

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