Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 230736 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 336 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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The remnant low of Jose dissipates well to the southeast of the area over the next couple of days, while high pressure centered to the northwest will be in control through the first half of next week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is forecast to remain offshore of the east coast. A cold front passes through the region Thursday, followed by high pressure building in Friday. Please refer to the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center for the official forecast on Maria.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Clouds mainly east of the Hudson River will gradually work east this morning in tandem with the remnants of Jose. An anomalous upper air pattern, will feature a high amplitude ridge across the eastern United States. This will keep the area dry and unseasonably warm through the course of the weekend. North winds will continue today, but gusts will be weaker than on Friday, perhaps up to 20 mph near the coast. Highs will range from the lower 80s at the coast, to the mid and upper 80s from NYC and points north and west. There is a moderate rip current risk at the Atlantic ocean beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Expect a continuation of unseasonably warm and dry conditions as heights continue to build across the area. 85H temps will approach 18C with highs 85 to 90 across much of the area on Sunday, with the exception of the immediate coast where it will be in the lower 80s. Readings will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with few if any clouds. See climate section below for potential records. Gradually building swells from distant Hurricane Maria will produce a moderate to high risk of rip currents on Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A anomalous upper air pattern will feature a longwave trough over the western states, and a highly amplified ridge across the east. Hurricane Maria will track slowly north through the week. The global models are now all pointing toward a more westward solution for Maria as the weakness provided by the remnants of Jose appears to be less of a factor than it was 24 hours ago, with the upper ridge expanding eastward across the western Atlantic. This in turn could cause a more westward track for Maria. Eventually though, a strong upper trough approaches from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes to deflect the system to the south and east of the area. There is still some uncertainty and timing issues at this juncture in the forecast. Please refer to the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center for the official forecast on Maria. Warm heights aloft and subsidence will result in an unseasonably warm week and a dry start. At the moment, there continues to be a low chance of showers Tuesday through Thursday as moisture works in ahead of Maria and the upper ridge begins to break down with the approach of an upper trough. Depending on the future track of Maria, some of this moisture could interact with a cold frontal boundary late Wednesday into Thursday. A return to more seasonable weather is forecast on Friday behind the cold front. Due to long period swells from Maria, there will be a prolonged period of rough surf at the ocean beaches.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure builds in from the west into tonight, as Post Tropical Cyclone Jose continues to slowly weaken as it drifts southeast well off of Cape Cod. VFR through the TAF period, except for occasional MVFR ceilings mainly at KGON and KISP through the early morning hours, but cannot completely rule this out early this morning at any terminal along/east of the western edge of Long Island Sound. N-NNW winds at around 10-15kt with occasional gusts to around 20kt, except light and variable at KSWF and 15g25kt at KGON early this morning. Winds become NNW-NW throughout by mid morning at around 10kt. Should see gusts of 15-20kt early through mid afternoon. Gusts should abate towards sunset as the winds veer to the N. Then winds become light and variable throughout this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Late tonight-Monday...VFR. .Monday night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower possible and scattered showers are possible. E-SE winds G15-20kt possible Wednesday. && .MARINE...
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The pressure gradient continues to weaken over the waters around Long Island as Post Tropical Cyclone Jose continues to weaken as it tracks farther away from the region and high pressure builds in from the west. The gradient becomes light throughout by late this afternoon, enabling winds to decrease to around 10 kt or less on all waters. Winds should then remain around 10 kt or less over all the waters around Long Island through at least Wednesday night. On the coastal ocean waters, swells from a combination of Jose and Maria will keep seas, over at least the southern portion of each zone at or above 5 ft through Wednesday night. The seas should diminish to around 5 ft tonight and Sunday then build back to 6-11 ft (highest east of Fire Island Inlet) Tuesday night. As a result, have extended the SCA through Sunday. Once gusts to around 25 kt abate during the afternoon, it should be converted over to a SCA for Hazardous Seas.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic problems anticipated through the end of next week. However, the interaction of a cold front late Wednesday into Thursday with tropical moisture will need to be watched.
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&& .CLIMATE... The following are record high temperatures for Sunday September 24, 2017 along with the forecast high temperature. Record High Temperature Forecast High Temperature ----------------------------- ------------------------- Central Park........89 (1959) 89 LaGuardia...........89 (1959) 88 Kennedy.............88 (1970) 87 Islip...............83 (2009) 86 Newark..............92 (1959) 90 Bridgeport..........87 (1959) 84 The following are record maximum minimum temperatures for Sunday September 24, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature. Record Max Minimum Temperature Forecast Minimum Temperature ------------------------------ ---------------------------- Central Park........74 (1970) 70 LaGuardia...........73 (1970) 71 Kennedy.............71 (1970) 69 Islip...............69 (1970) 65 Newark..............74 (1970) 68 Bridgeport..........71 (2011) 66 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...Maloit HYDROLOGY...DW CLIMATE...//

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