Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 191528 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1028 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND LIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT FOLLOWING ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SENDS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO T/TD THIS MORNING TO BE IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH JANUARY-LIKE TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET IN A FEW LOCATIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY ALTHOUGH ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 30 TO 35 DEGREES. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FORKS DUE TO THE FLOW OFF THE WARMER WATERS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES BROADENS THROUGH THU AS 100KT H3 JET DIVES THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE AND LFQ OF UPPER JET. THE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL NW OF THE AREA...BUT ITS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON THU. NWP REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH WARM FROPA PCPN REMAINING THE NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. WAA ENSUES TONIGHT WITH MINS LIKELY OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT MANY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE ON THU...THEREFORE NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FROPA...JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN. HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE WARMER...BUT CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AMPLIFIED MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM PATTERN CONTINUES AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER COLD...ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY DIMINISHING WINDS. IT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD HOWEVER AS LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE TEENS INLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL STATES SETTING UP A WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE PATTERN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S. AFTER SEEING RECORD LOWS THIS WEEK...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW RECORD HIGHS AT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST. GOOD AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH CONTINUES CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL INTO THE 50S...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. TONIGHT...THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. WESTERLY WINDS BACK WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY AND GUSTS 15-20 KT SUBSIDE BY AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT DEVELOPING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE +/- 1 HR FROM FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE +/- 1 HR FROM FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE +/- 1 HR FROM FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE +/- 1 HR FROM FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THU...VFR. SW WIND 10-15KT. GUST 25KT LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. .FRI...VFR. WNW WINDS G25KT. .FRI NGT-SAT...VFR. .SUN...VFR BECOMING MARGINAL LATE IN THE DAY. IFR AT NGT IN RA AND FG WITH LLWS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... 5 FT SEAS LINGERING ON THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET UNTIL 18Z AND POSSIBLY REMAINING AT 5 FT FOR THE ENTIRE DAY EAST OF MORICHES INLET. SCA THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT HERE FOR THIS PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONTINUE INTO THU MORNING. GALES EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND/BAYS WITH SCA ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TO MARGINAL GALES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET...HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. WINDS DECREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS ALSO DECREASING. SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE SUN INTO MON. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS EVENT. && .CLIMATE... SOME RECORDS HAVE BEEN BROKEN FOR LOWS TODAY... NYC....18/1936 JFK....27/2008 NOW 23 LGA....28/2008 NOW 23 EWR....19/1936 BDR....24/1986 NOW 23 ISP....23/1997 NOW 22 THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWEST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY... NYC....34/1882 JFK....37/2008 LGA....35/1951 EWR....35/1951 BDR....35/2008 ISP....35/2008 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345. GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350. && $$ NEAR TERM...JC AVIATION...JM/TONGUE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.