Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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543 FXUS61 KOKX 231921 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 221 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain steady over the western Atlantic through Friday. A frontal system approaches Saturday and crosses the region Saturday Night. High pressure builds over the area during the early part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Stratus deck continues to erode from the south and north with better mixing and strong heating. Stratus will likely linger into the afternoon across portions of southern CT and Long Island. However, some clearing is also possible and there are some signs of this already occurring on the latest visible imagery. Any fog will be patchy and confided to eastern Long Island and southeast CT. Unseasonably warm readings today, especially where the clouds break and away from the coast. Temperatures in the 60s to near 70 are possible across NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, and parts of NYC metro and interior CT. 50s will be more common across Long Island and coastal CT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... PAC shortwave and associated low pressure system move east through Southern Quebec tonight with trailing cold front pushing towards the region late. Models have backed off on how far south the cold front will press tonight...stalling over or just north of the region late tonight/Friday morning. The front...with weak shortwave energy moving through aloft...will likely act as a focus for some light rain showers/drizzle...with fog development in the moisture pooling to the south. Fog could once again be dense. Friday will likely feature conditions similar to today...with forecast uncertainty in location of the stalled front and how quickly it moves back north. If front lingers in the area...drizzle and fog would linger all day. If front stays north or moves to the north...a gradual lifting of fog and potential for afternoon breaks in stratus across interior would be favored. Coastal areas though have likelihood to remain in marine layer in either scenario. Temps will be once again be well above normal in the 50s coast/60s interior...but once again if breaks of sun can develop across the interior temps would make a run to 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will move across the area on Saturday before pushing offshore Saturday night. As the moisture increases across the area during the day on Saturday expect showers to develop. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. High pressure will build into the area Saturday night through Sunday night. Temperatures Saturday night will be in the mid to upper 30s with temperatures on Sunday in the mid to upper 40s. High pressure moves offshore Monday, as a storm moves towards the area. A chance of rain and snow showers are possible with the storm passage. The storm will move offshore Monday night. Several shortwaves will interact with a frontal boundary near the area resulting in chances of light precipitation through the middle of the week. Temperatures during this time period will be generally around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will continue to drift eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast during the day. A cold front approaches overnight tonight into Friday morning, before pushing north as a warm front on Friday. Stratus deck has eroded around the city terminals as of 19Z, and will eventually erode over the next hour or so across Long Island and CT terminals. MVFR and IFR conditions return tonight as fog and low stratus redevelop across the region. In addition, areas of drizzle or light rain showers are possible overnight. S-SW winds through the afternoon generally 10 KT or less. Winds then become light and variable again outside of the city tonight. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments:Uncertainty with timing regarding lowering of ceilings and visibility this evening through overnight. KLGA TAF Comments: Uncertainty with timing regarding lowering of ceilings and visibility this evening through overnight. KEWR TAF Comments:Uncertainty with timing regarding lowering of ceilings and visibility this evening through overnight. KTEB TAF Comments:Uncertainty with timing regarding lowering of ceilings and visibility this evening through overnight. KHPN TAF Comments:Uncertainty with timing regarding lowering of ceilings and visibility this evening through overnight. KISP TAF Comments:Uncertainty with timing regarding lowering of ceilings and visibility this evening through overnight. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday-Saturday...MVFR to IFR in stratus and fog with periods of light rain and drizzle Friday morning. Conditions could improve to VFR for a period during the day on Friday before lowering again Friday night. .Saturday night...MVFR likely with rain. .Sunday...VFR. .Monday...VFR early...becoming MVFR. Chance of rain or snow. .Tuesday...Possible MVFR in showers. && .MARINE... Have cancelled the dense fog advisory and replaced with a marine weather statement as improving conditions have been seen on webcams and satellite imagery. There is still some dense fog around, but it will be mainly patchy. Concern again tonight for redevelopment of dense fog and another advisory issuance is possible later this afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure over the western Atlantic brings a persistent s/sw flow but sub sca conds to the local waters through Friday. Southerly wind gusts on the ocean could run to close to 20 kt this eve. An easterly swell and southerly wind waves may bring ocean seas close to 5 ft tonight into Friday. Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels Friday night. Small Craft Advisory levels likely Saturday night as a cold front moves across the area waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions are then likely on Sunday, and possible on Monday. Winds and seas improve on Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/NV NEAR TERM...DS/NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...CB MARINE...Fig/NV HYDROLOGY...Fig/NV

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