Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 040008 AAC AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 808 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BUILDS ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERS INTO THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SW ARE SUFFICIENTLY OPAQUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE..OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK. SHORTWAVE RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN EXITS TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAINS MAKE IT INTO FAR W/SW ZONES LATE TONIGHT...ADDRESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND HAS BEEN DISCARDED IN THE SHORT TERM. NON-GFS CONSENSUS SOLUTION TRACKS A LOW S OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING...AND JUST S THEN E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN NOW FARTHER S AND FASTER TRACK OF LOW...AND THAT THE NAM AND CMC KEEP THE AREA DRY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT DRY NAM AND CMC SOLUTION COMPLETELY EITHER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER S ZONES CLOSEST TO LOW AND LOWEST POPS OVER N ZONES. RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW GOES BY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE 700 HPA TROUGH AXIS...AND A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IS OVER W ZONES. FOR NOW...DO HAVE LINGERING CHANCE POPS EARLY SAT EVENING OVER FAR E ZONES...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN AT 700 HPA SERVING TO COUNTER 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS CROSSING AREA. FOR HIGHS SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE NAM AND CMC ARE CORRECT AND THINGS REMAIN DRY...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST WITH DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING FOLLOWING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FROM THIS. PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS BASED ON FORECAST 850MB TEMPS...AND EVEN MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER LONG ISLAND SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PLENTY OF TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZE EFFECTS KICK IN...AND WATER TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 70. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. FOR HIGHS...HAVE GONE ABOVE AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE...NOTING RISING HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. THIS COULD BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUBSIDENCE...AND FOR COASTAL AREAS...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ALL DAY AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS GENERALLY WILL BE THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SUNDAYS FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND A LITTLE ABOVE SUNDAYS INLAND. MODELS ARE THEN IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF TWO SURFACE FEATURES THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTING IN FROM THE SW. THE SECOND IS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE LATE MON NIGHT-WEDS NIGHT...BUT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH CAPE IS FORECAST FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDS ARE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY COULD PUSH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...WITH ECMWF AND CMC DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS US DRY WITH A LACK OF LOW DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN KEEP FRIDAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. A FARTHER NORTH TRACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A FARTHER TRACK TO THE SOUTH HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TERMINALS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE PROB 30 GROUP WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE VFR. SEA BREEZES END 00Z TO 02Z WITH WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPS...BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIND FORECAST WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 KT OR LESS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS. GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF THE LOW. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. .TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE... A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. SEAS COULD ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS BELOW THE REQUIRED 80 PERCENT NEEDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS STILL TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO PASS TO THE S THEN E OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY IN THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS ALSO AN EVEN SMALLER CHANCE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND DOUBLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THIS TIME FRAME. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...MET MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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