Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251809 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 109 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CDFNT WAS STILL NW OF THE CWA AT NOON. MIXING TO JUST BLW H85 PER SFC TEMPS AND THE 12Z OKX SOUNDING. RAISED HI TEMPS SLIGHTLY...BUT DO NOT THINK THERE IS MUCH ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING WITH AN INVERSION AROUND H85...AND SNOW COVER LIMITING THE SUPER POTENTIAL AT THE SFC. THINK ATTM CAA WILL BE LIMITED TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE N. A FEW HI CLOUDS ON STLT...OTHERWISE SUNNY FOR THIS AFTN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT TONIGHT AS A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS ELSEWHERE. THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE LOW PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. THE BEST LIFT AND MID-LEVEL FORCING STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES. THE LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE QUITE DRY AS WELL...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. FORECASTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WITH THE SMALL POSSIBILITY THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ABLE TO ADVANCE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MORNING AND RISE INTO THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING ON UPSTREAM TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH DIFFERS...AS DOES TIMING. TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST...WITH EITHER FLAT FLOW OR WEAK RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND. THEN WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY EJECTS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY...WITH LARGER DIFFERENCES NOTED. THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS. AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ALL FORECAST A SLOW PROGRESSION EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. BY TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID WEST TOWARD GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WHAT THIS MEANS IS MAINLY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST...WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND SNOW COULD BECOME A WINTRY MIX...WITH DIFFERENCES NOTED ALOFT WITH REGARD TO WAA. WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY ENDS MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLE SOMETIME TUESDAY. AGAIN...DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED. TEMPS REMAIN DOWNRIGHT COLD COURTESY OF ARCTIC HIGH AND NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH A COLDER NIGHT LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED LOWS FROM AROUND ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. QUITE COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY. EXPECTED HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 20S EXPECTED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. ON SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. WHILE THIS IS WARMER...IT IS STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW ON AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THU. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING MID LEVEL DECK TONIGHT INTO THU. W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS AFT. WINDS THEN VEER NW-N DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KT THIS EVENING...THEN N-NE 10-12 KT THU. A PASSING SNOW FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE THU. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MONDAY... .THU...LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. .FRI-SUN...VFR. .SUN NIGHT-MON...MIXED PCPN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .MARINE... LOW PRES PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA UNTIL 23Z ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS. AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS LIGHTEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS REMAIN 5 FEET OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. SEAS SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS LIGHTEN. FOR THE HARBORS/BAYS AND SOUND...SEAS/WAVES REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD. MANY AREAS ARE AFFECTED BY ICE AS WELL...AND THIS CONTINUES AS COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. && .HYDROLOGY... MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH MONDAY. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/PW NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...DW MARINE...DS/PW HYDROLOGY...DS/PW

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