Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 240530 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 130 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The remnant low of Jose will dissipate well to the southeast over the next couple of days, while high pressure to the northwest will be in control through the first half of next week. High pressure over the region weakens Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west, and Hurricane Maria is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move to off the Carolina coast. A cold front will pass through Wednesday night into Thursday as Maria tracks to the northeast. High pressure builds in from the west Friday. A weak trough of low pressure may affect the area next Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Fog bank has been advancing towards the area this evening from the east. Widespread dense fog on Cape Cod and the islands to the south as well as Block Island. NARRE and HRRR has some indication of low clouds and fog impacting the twin forks of Long Island and possibly New London county, but 10-15 kt of wind at the top of the boundary layer of a very dry layer may start to break this up and it won`t be as bad here. Have started with an SPS for these areas mentioning locally dense fog and the mid shift can monitor and upgrade to an dense fog advsy if needed. Otherwise...have made slight adjustments to the hourly T/Td to account for this. Elsewhere...clear tonight with light and vrb winds and radiational fog in the outlying areas and valleys. Lows will range from the lower 70s in NYC, to the 60s most elsewhere, to the upper 50s in the valleys well N/W of NYC and in the Long Island Pine Barrens, per the cooler of the GFS/NAM MOS numbers in consideration of radiational cooling. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Expect a continuation of unseasonably warm and dry conditions as heights aloft continue to rise, with sunny skies. Both MOS guidance and GFS/NAM mixing up to 857 mb in the afternoon, plus a 2-3 more degrees, support high temps from the mid 80s to lower 90s, except for the immediate coast where highs will be in the lower 80s. See CLIMATE section for potential records. Swells from distant Hurricane Maria will produce a moderate rip current risk. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The longwave pattern will continue to be highly amplified Monday with a strong upper ridge over the eastern states, with a trough across the western states. Dry weather and warm conditions will remain in place Monday and Tuesday. The eastern ridge begins to weaken Tuesday into Tuesday night as a shortwave digs into the northern plains and western Great Lakes, and Maria moves to east of the Carolina coast. This shortwave is not as amplified as previous forecasts have indicated, however, the shortwave does move quickly through the northern stream. Another shortwave does rotate into the long wave trough toward the end of the week. The upper trough and surface cold front will lift Maria to the northeast and out to sea for the end of the week. The area will return to more seasonal levels, and possibly to below normal by next weekend. There is considerable uncertainty with the second shortwave and a weak surface trough moving into the ridge. At this time will have slight chance probabilities for Saturday. Refer to the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast information on Maria. Due to long period swells from Maria, there will be a prolonged period of rough surf at the ocean beaches, with the likelihood of a high risk of rip currents. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west into tonight. Highly likely VFR through the TAF period. There is a very low chance of MVFR-IFR ceilings and/or visibilities at KGON early this morning and an even lower, but non-zero chance at KISP as well early this morning. There is also a low chance for MVFR fog towards sunrise at KSWF. Light and variable winds become N-NE at under 10 kt by mid morning at all terminals except KSWF, where this should occur by early afternoon. Seabreezes are then expected at all terminals but KSWF, starting around midday at CT terminals, early afternoon KJFK/KISP and mid-late afternoon elsewhere. Light and variable winds return at all terminals late this afternoon/early this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Late Tonight-Monday...Most likely VFR. There is a low chance for MVFR-IFR conditions at eastern terminals and KSWF late tonight/early Monday morning. .Monday night-Thursday...MVFR or lower conditions and scattered showers are possible.
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&& .MARINE... Fog bank has moved into the eastern ocean waters from the east late this evening. Uncertain how far west it will progress overnight, but have issued an MWS to account for areas of fog with vsbys between 1 and 3 NM, with some locally dense spots. Have also extended the SCA for hazardous ocean seas from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk through 22z Mon as buoy 25 has been holding right around 5 ft. They may end up falling a bit more overnight, but should come back up during the day Sunday due to swells from distant Hurricane Maria. Have also issued a SCA from Sandy Hook to Fire Island inlet from 00z to 22z Mon as Maria`s swells should start to impact this area Sunday night. No changes to waters E of Moriches inlet. Long period swells are expected to remain on the ocean waters Monday and through the upcoming week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed through the period. Winds on the ocean waters remain below small craft advisory levels until Thursday night when gusts may approach 25 kt on a northwest flow behind a cold front. Across the remainder of the waters winds and gusts are expected to remain below advisory levels Monday through Thursday night. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems anticipated through the end of next week. && .CLIMATE... The following are record high temperatures for Sunday September 24, 2017 along with the forecast high temperature. Record High Temperature Forecast High Temperature ----------------------------- ------------------------- Central Park........89 (1959) 91 LaGuardia...........89 (1959) 90 Kennedy.............88 (1970) 88 Islip...............83 (2009) 85 Newark..............92 (1959) 93 Bridgeport..........87 (1959) 86 The following are record high minimum temperatures for Sunday September 24, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature. Record High Minimum Temperature Forecast Minimum Temperature ------------------------------- ---------------------------- Central Park........74 (1970) 71 LaGuardia...........73 (1970) 71 Kennedy.............71 (1970) 69 Islip...............69 (1970) 65 Newark..............74 (1970) 68 Bridgeport..........71 (2011) 67 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET NEAR TERM...Goodman/MET SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...Goodman/MET HYDROLOGY...MET CLIMATE...

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