Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 292001 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 401 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND INTENSIFIES AND ALSO PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THEY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS SKIES CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAV/MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS ACCEPTED. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MODELS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POTENT NRN STREAM VORT...NOW OVER NUNAVUT IN NORTHERN CANADA...WILL DIVE SE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRI AND CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AND SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE SE TO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT...THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ALSO NEGATIVELY TILTING THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. THE APPROACH OF THIS COMBO OF UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO MOISTEN ON FRI...AND A WEAK LEADING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE INCIPIENT OFFSHORE LOW TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER LONG ISLAND BY LATE DAY FRI OR EARLY FRI EVENING...THEN INCREASING POP TO CHANCE AND THEN LIKELY MOST PLACES DURING THE DAY ON SAT AND CAT ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS. THEN AS THE POTENT CLOSED LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...A STRONGER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING...AND THEN HEAD NE...PASSING OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE LARGER TROUGH...AND THIS LACK OF PHASING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM SEEING HEAVY PRECIP...SO ACTUALLY HAVE DECREASING POP DURING SAT NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW TO POSSIBLY CAUSE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AND WIND FROM SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE BLEND... WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...THEN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS GUST CLOSE TO 40 MPH...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL TO AOB FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NYC SUNDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ALOFT...EXPECT GRADUAL MODERATION...WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL MON-TUE...THEN REACHING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON WED AS A WARM FRONT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLD SHOWERS ON WED.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BACK TO THE WEST...AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO 8-10 KT BY 22Z. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-8 KT THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR FORECAST. MODELS INDICATING THAT SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OCNL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KT ON THURSDAY...AND THEN E-NE WINDS 5-10 KT ON FRIDAY. .FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. PRECIP MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G20-25KT. .SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20G20-30KT. .MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 5-10 KT.
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&& .MARINE...
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A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS EVENING. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FT AND GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WIND DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFTS ARE UP ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS UNTIL 6PM AND ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN TIL 2AM. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT. MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS...THEN EXPECT NORTHERLY GALES ON THE OCEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND N-NW GALES ON ALL WATERS ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON...WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MON MORNING...AND ON THE OCEAN BY MON NIGHT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT... EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS CLOSER TO 1/2 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...MPS MARINE...BC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN

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