Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 291539 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1139 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly move across the region today. High pressure will then build into the region tonight into Tuesday. The high will give way to a cold front late Wednesday into Wednesday night, followed by high pressure for the end of the week and into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A weak front will slowly move across today. Hard pressed to call it a cold front with temps this afternoon reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s in most places. Dewpoints should gradually drop this afternoon, so do not expect heat issues as heat index remains close to or perhaps a shade lower than actual air temps. There is a high rip current risk today, as 3-ft very long period SE swell (14 seconds) from distant Hurricane Gaston impinges on the ocean beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... High pressure will build from the NW, with mostly clear skies. Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s in NYC, to the 60s most elsewhere, to 55-60 in the interior valleys and the Long Island Pine Barrens. Highs on Tuesday will climb into the 80s. a high rip current risk will likely continue due to SE swells from Gaston. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As ridge resides well to the west, upper trough approaches the northeast Wednesday and Thursday, with its axis passing east by Friday. Ridging then builds behind it. Surface high pressure early in the period will give way to approaching cold front Wednesday night. This front moves east Thursday as high pressure builds behind providing plenty of sunshine and dry weather through the weekend. A dry period is expected, with best chance for rain occurring along and ahead of the front late Wednesday-Wednesday night and into Thursday. Due to ample support aloft, and consistent model output of precip, feel scattered activity looks like a good bet mainly Wednesday night. Seasonable or slightly above seasonable temperatures will warm ahead of the front Wednesday, averaging at least 5 degrees above normal. Then temperatures settle back closer to or just below seasonal norms behind the front late this week. Some moderating in temps likely next weekend. The threat for rough surf and high risk for rip current development should continue through the mid to late week due to SE swells from distant Hurricane Gaston. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR. A weak cold front has advanced through the city terminals and will continue to move slowly south and east through early afternoon. High pressure then builds in behind the front this afternoon and tonight. Winds have shifted to the northwest behind the front, and for a time this afternoon will be around 310 magnetic. In the northwest flow gusts up to 18 KTS will be possible at the NYC metro terminals, however, gusts may be less frequent than indicated in the TAFs. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: There is a low chance that a sea breeze may move into KJFK or remain just south of the terminal after 17Z. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .Outlook for 12Z Tuesday through Friday... .Tuesday-Wednesday Afternoon...VFR. .Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning...Showers/tstms possible with MVFR conditions. .Thursday Afternoon-Friday...VFR. && .MARINE... Combined seas via WSW flow 10-15 kt and long period swells generated by Gaston remain at 3 ft late this morning. With an 06Z run of NWPS continuing to run a foot high, have higher confidence that combined seas will remain below 5 ft through tonight. While and SCA will not be issued, conditions will become rough around the inlets due to the swell. For now kept mention of 5-ft combined seas for Tuesday. From Tuesday night through Thursday, and possibly into Friday, ocean seas will remain elevated due to long period swells generated by Gaston. The non-ocean waters should remain rather tranquil, although it could get a little rough as some of the ocean swells make it into the extreme eastern portion of Long Island Sound, western Block Island Sound, and the entrance to NY Harbor. Winds should remain below SCA criteria, although they will increase on Wednesday ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Gusts on a northerly wind flow are also anticipated as the waters sit between the departing front, and high pressure building late Thursday and Thursday night. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...BC/PW AVIATION...FEB/MET MARINE...BC/Goodman/PW HYDROLOGY...BC

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