Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201959 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 359 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical cyclone Jose well southeast of the twin forks of Long Island will slowly move northeast through tonight, then meander well offshore through Thursday night. Meanwhile, high pressure builds over the area Thursday and remains in place through early next week as Jose weakens and slowly meanders to our southeast. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Jose was located about 200 miles southeast of the twin forks of Long Island late in the day and will continue moving slowly to the northeast away from the coast through tonight. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. Rain bands continue to spiral just east of the forecast area, and at times just into the far eastern portions, into the twin forks and over the ocean waters. However, with a ridge building to the west and northwest, the rain has been diminishing as the rain bands move into areas of increasing subsidence. So, will keep at slight chance probabilities through 22Z. Otherwise, ridging and surface high pressure will build in through tonight. The cloud shield associated with Jose will remain across much of the area at least into tonight. Dangerous rip currents will continue at Atlantic ocean beaches tonight, with high surf through late this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The upper ridge and surface high will build into the area early Thursday and then remain into Thursday night. Jose will continue to meander well to the southeast of the area into Thursday, and with the ridge in place late Thursday Jose is expected to begin slowly moving to the west with weak steering currents. By late Thursday night rain bands may begin to move back into the far eastern sections and will again have slight to low end chance probabilities over the far eastern sections toward Friday morning. Again, please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. Dangerous rip currents will continue at Atlantic ocean beaches through Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The center of Jose`s remnants are expected to meander about 150-200 miles to the SE of Montauk Friday through the weekend. Associated showers may be able to sneak into eastern LI and SE CT Friday and Saturday, but with the system weakening further, will keep with a dry forecast for Saturday night and Sunday through Monday. Cannot completely rule out showers for these periods as well as Jose`s remnants may linger around. Clouds may prevent high temperatures from rising above normal levels east of the city for Friday and Saturday, but all other areas probably see highs above normal. A better chance of high temperatures above normal for all areas then follows for Sunday and Monday with temperatures trying to rise aloft. Rough surf will continue to be likely at least through the end of this week and may continue into early next week. The interaction between whatever is left of Jose with Hurricane Maria adds a great deal of uncertainty for Tuesday and Wednesday`s forecast. Will introduce a slight chance of showers for Tuesday, then bump them up into the chance category for Wednesday as Maria draws a little closer. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose and Maria. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Tropical cyclone Jose will meander off the southern New England coast through Friday. SCT to BKN low end VFR everywhere except KSWF, KISP, and KGON. MVFR Ceilings will continue to improve to VFR into tonight for these terminals, but will do so slowly. Winds will be out of the N to NNW. Gusts will continue in the 20-30 kt range at the city terminals, and closer to 25-35 kt at eastern terminals. Winds gradually decrease through the evening, with gusts dropping off after 00Z in the city and after 08Z for KISP. KGON will likely gust through the TAF period. Winds will gust again on Thursday, but will not be as strong, generally 20-30 kt, with the highest gusts for eastern terminals. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts may end +/- 2 hours than is forecast. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts may end +/- 2 hours than is forecast. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts may end +/- 2 hours than is forecast. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts may end +/- 2 hours than is forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts may end +/- 2 hours than is forecast. KISP TAF Comments: MVFR ceilings through 22Z. Gust of 25-30 kt through 22Z as well. Occasional gusts to near 30 kt possible through 22Z. Timing of gusts ending and VFR ceilings may be +/- 2 hour than is forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday-Friday...VFR. Gusty N winds 20 to 25 kt on Thursday, with higher gusts over eastern terminals. Slightly lower gusts for Friday. .Saturday-Monday...VFR. && .MARINE... Jose was approximately 200 nautical miles southeast of Montauk Point late in the day and continues to track slowly to the northeast through tonight and into early Thursday before meandering Thursday afternoon, and then begin to track westward late Thursday into Thursday night. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official track and intensity forecasts for Jose. On the ocean waters, have extended the small craft advisory through Thursday night. However, gusts will be diminishing across the waters west of Moriches Inlet and will fall below 25 kt by late this evening. To the east small craft gusts remain through Thursday night. The small craft west of Moriches Inlet will likely be converted to a hazardous seas advisory as seas remain above 5 ft through at least Thursday night. Across the NY Harbor, western Long Island Sound and south shore bays small craft winds are expected to end around 22Z this evening. On the eastern Long Island bays and eastern Long Island Sound small craft gusts remain into Thursday, and may need to be extended into Thursday night. This will depend on the track of Jose. There is some uncertainty regarding winds and seas Friday through early next week due to Jose. What seems more probable is that ocean seas remain at SCA levels due to a lingering swell. For now, it appears that gusts over 25 kt would be possible mainly east of Fire Island Inlet and over eastern LI Sound and the eastern bays of LI for Friday and Saturday. Winds would then weaken thereafter as Jose weakens further. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are anticipated through early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Episodes of minor coastal flooding will likely continue through the week. Subsequent high tide cycles through the week will be impacted by continued rough surf and long period swells as TC Jose becomes nearly stationary about a couple hundred miles to the southeast of eastern Long Island. Water levels through the week will approach or exceed minor coastal flood benchmarks, with the possibility of localized moderate coastal flooding. The most susceptible locations will be the south shore back bays of Long Island. High surf will fall through tonight, but remain rough through the week.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EDT Thursday for NYZ080-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335- 338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ330-340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...JP MARINE...JC/MET HYDROLOGY...JC/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW

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