Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KOKX 291539
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1139 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
A cold front will slowly move across the region today. High
pressure will then build into the region tonight into Tuesday.
The high will give way to a cold front late Wednesday into
Wednesday night, followed by high pressure for the end of the
week and into next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak front will slowly move across today. Hard pressed to call
it a cold front with temps this afternoon reaching the upper 80s
and lower 90s in most places. Dewpoints should gradually drop
this afternoon, so do not expect heat issues as heat index remains
close to or perhaps a shade lower than actual air temps.
There is a high rip current risk today, as 3-ft very long period
SE swell (14 seconds) from distant Hurricane Gaston impinges on
the ocean beaches.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build from the NW, with mostly clear skies.
Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s in NYC, to the 60s most
elsewhere, to 55-60 in the interior valleys and the Long Island
Pine Barrens. Highs on Tuesday will climb into the 80s.
a high rip current risk will likely continue due to SE swells
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As ridge resides well to the west, upper trough approaches the
northeast Wednesday and Thursday, with its axis passing east by
Friday. Ridging then builds behind it.
Surface high pressure early in the period will give way to
approaching cold front Wednesday night. This front moves east
Thursday as high pressure builds behind providing plenty of
sunshine and dry weather through the weekend.
A dry period is expected, with best chance for rain occurring along
and ahead of the front late Wednesday-Wednesday night and into
Due to ample support aloft, and consistent model output of precip,
feel scattered activity looks like a good bet mainly Wednesday
Seasonable or slightly above seasonable temperatures will warm
ahead of the front Wednesday, averaging at least 5 degrees above
normal. Then temperatures settle back closer to or just below
seasonal norms behind the front late this week. Some moderating
in temps likely next weekend.
The threat for rough surf and high risk for rip current development
should continue through the mid to late week due to SE swells
from distant Hurricane Gaston.
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. A weak cold front has advanced through the city terminals
and will continue to move slowly south and east through early
afternoon. High pressure then builds in behind the front this
afternoon and tonight.
Winds have shifted to the northwest behind the front, and for a
time this afternoon will be around 310 magnetic. In the northwest
flow gusts up to 18 KTS will be possible at the NYC metro
terminals, however, gusts may be less frequent than indicated in
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: There is a low chance that a sea breeze may move
into KJFK or remain just south of the terminal after 17Z.
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
.Outlook for 12Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning...Showers/tstms possible with
Combined seas via WSW flow 10-15 kt and long period swells
generated by Gaston remain at 3 ft late this morning. With an 06Z
run of NWPS continuing to run a foot high, have higher confidence
that combined seas will remain below 5 ft through tonight. While
and SCA will not be issued, conditions will become rough around
the inlets due to the swell. For now kept mention of 5-ft
combined seas for Tuesday.
From Tuesday night through Thursday, and possibly into Friday,
ocean seas will remain elevated due to long period swells
generated by Gaston. The non-ocean waters should remain rather
tranquil, although it could get a little rough as some of the
ocean swells make it into the extreme eastern portion of Long
Island Sound, western Block Island Sound, and the entrance to NY
Winds should remain below SCA criteria, although they will increase
on Wednesday ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Gusts on a
northerly wind flow are also anticipated as the waters sit
between the departing front, and high pressure building late
Thursday and Thursday night.
No significant widespread precipitation is expected.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-