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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240608
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
208 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly approach and move across this morning
into the afternoon. A secondary cold front moves across
tonight. High pressure builds to our southwest Sunday into
Monday. A weak cold front will move through our area later
Monday. High pressure builds towards the Mid Atlantic coast
Tuesday and Wednesday, before moving offshore Thursday.
Unsettled weather return for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Will monitor upstream showers/tstms, and with increasing
coverage across our area this morning. Primary threat will be
localized flash flooding in a very tropical air mass as the
remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy move northeastward along an
approaching cold front. In addition, increasing low level jet
and potential backing of low level winds ahead of remnant low
could aid stronger storm development early this morning.

Lows were a blend of NAM12/GMOS and adjusted slightly higher.
Boundary layer moistens with patchy fog developing, especially
in areas that are outside the rain showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Starting out Saturday morning, the remnant low of Cindy with
the showers and thunderstorms will be near to just southwest of
the region. Heavy rain threat remains early in the morning with
patchy fog early especially in areas outside of rain showers. It
moves south of Long Island this afternoon as the cold front
moves across. The showers and thunderstorms move offshore in the
afternoon as winds become more westerly. Depending on how fast
clouds decrease, the surface temperatures could warm up quickly.
Expecting an above normal day regarding temperatures with
boundary layer mixing giving highs mid to upper 80s most places
with some lower 90s in Northeast NJ using GMOS with slight
adjustments.

For Saturday night, a secondary cold front moves across which
will result in winds becoming more northerly late Saturday night
after its passage. Dry conditions, light winds and continued
mostly clear conditions will result in radiational cooling. A
vast range of lows will be seen in the region from upper 50s in
rural inland sections to lower 70s in parts of NYC from the MET
guidance.

A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry conditions expected on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds
towards the Mid Atlantic coast. Expect high temperatures to be in
the low to mid 80s on Sunday. A weak surface cold front will affect
the local area Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The system will not
have a great deal of moisture associated with it, but cooler
temperatures aloft may  spark off a shower or t-storm late Monday
into early Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are
expected to be in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s.

High pressure continues to build towards the area on Wednesday and
slowly moves offshore on Friday. A few showers are possible Friday
afternoon. Temperatures will start out in the upper 70s to near 80
on Wednesday then slowly increase to mid to upper 80s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Ahead of an approaching cold front widespread showers becoming
more likely approaching the 8-10z timeframe for the terminals.
Embedded thunder possible (best chance for KEWR) but left out
of the TAFS for now. The main concern with any heavier showers
early this morning is for locally heavy rain which can lower
visibilities down to IFR for a few hours, with the best window
for this from 10 to 14z. Front timing appears to be sped up a
bit, so heavier showers could move out an hour or so faster than
indicated in TAFS for the late morning.

Winds will switch to west with frontal passage which should be
around 14z for city terminals. VFR for the remainder of the TAF
period after front passes. For a brief time for the late
morning and early afternoon winds may go closer to just north of
west (close to 300 or 310 magnetic). Winds gust to around 20 KT
for city terminals until 22z or thereabout.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night-Sunday Night...VFR. NW wind early Saturday
night, otherwise West wind through Sunday night.
.Monday-Tuesday...VFR. A slight chance of shra/tsra Monday
afternoon, and a chance of shra/tsra on Tuesday.
.Wednesday...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on the waters are becoming more rough. Sub SCA winds
on non-ocean waters are expected through Saturday night. Ocean
stays in SCA through much of Saturday night. Less SCA winds
Saturday night with an overall weak pressure gradient with
residual higher seas.

Conditions across the area waters are expected to remain below
small craft advisory levels Sunday through the middle of the
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The potential for minor urban and poor drainage flooding with
localized possible flash flooding will remain with the showers
and thunderstorms forecast this morning. Total rain expected is
0.5 to 1 inch with locally higher amounts. The precipitable
waters increase to near 2.3 to 2.4 inches with tropical
moisture from the remnants of Cindy getting entrained along the
front.

There is a threat for flash flooding through 14-16Z from
complex of showers and thunderstorm associated with a frontal
wave (remnants of Cindy) moving through the areas. Will monitor
as morning progresses.

There are no hydrologic impacts expected Sunday and through the
end of the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are running very high, especially during the
evening high tide cycles.

Less than 1 ft of surge is needed during these evening high tide
cycles for minor flooding, and in some cases less then 1/2 ft.
The expected S/SW flow is not favorable for surge, but a
background anomaly will likely be enough for minor coastal
flooding of the most vulnerable coastal locales along the south
shore bays of Western Long Island, along Jamaica Bay, and along
western Long Island Sound during this time.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KOKX weather radar is scheduled for maintenance starting today June
23rd for a period of 3 days.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fig/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/MD/JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...MD/JE
MARINE...Fig/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...Fig/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...