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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 151011
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
611 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front passes east of the area today followed by a
cold frontal passage tonight. High pressure builds through mid
week before a weak cold frontal passage on Thursday. High
pressure will then rebuild and prevail through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The dense fog advisory has been cancelled as visibilities have
been improving in response to increasing southerly flow. By
late morning, flow will shift to a more southwesterly direction,
allowing for increased mixing and gradually eroding any
remaining fog and stratus. Any breaks in the clouds will be
brief as coverage increases again this evening ahead of the cold
front. Temperatures will be well above normal to near 80 across
portions of New Jersey and in the 70s elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mild conditions will continue through at least the early portion
of the evening in southwest flow. The front is expected to
slowly move through overnight with an abrupt drop in
temperatures from west to east in strong cold advection. Any
precipitation will likely be light and post-frontal, with
minimal accumulations. By morning, rain will taper off quickly,
with gusty northwest flow and more seasonable temperatures
expected for the remainder of the day. By comparison,
temperatures Monday night will feel significantly cooler than
we have experienced recently, though will be closer to
climatological normals for the time of year. Should northwest
flow slacken more than forecast, temperatures in more rural
areas and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island could approach the
freezing mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pressure gradient relaxes into the mid week as high pressure
builds across the area. Temperatures will be a few degrees below
normal on Tuesday before slowly moderating through late week.
Little sensible weather is expected, though a short wave and
attendant cold front will pass to the north for Thursday. Given
antecedent dry conditions and its passage more to the north, no
precipitation or large temperature drops are expected with its
passage. High pressure will rebuild for the remainder of the
week with seasonable conditions continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will approach the region late today, crossing the
region tonight.

Conditions expected to continue to lower to IFR/LIFR in areas
of fog, stratus, and drizzle for morning push. Conditions
improve slowly to MVFR in the morning, with VFR likely
developing for most terminals in the afternoon.

Light S winds for morning push...then S to SW winds increase to
10 to 15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT this afternoon. These winds
likely continue for the evening push. Low prob of gusts to 30 kt
during this time.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Late Sunday Night...MVFR possible with iso-sct showers. Winds
shift to NW after 08Z and gust 20-25KT.
.Monday...Chc early AM showers and MVFR/IFR, becoming VFR. NW
winds G20-25KT.
.Tuesday-Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Areas of fog over the eastern forecast waters should improve
from w to e through mid morning.

Marginal SCA seas will continue on the ocean waters through
this morning due to a SE swell. SCA winds and seas expected to
build on the ocean in a strengthening SW flow ahead of an
approaching cold front this aft/eve, and with the NW flow in its
wake late tonight into early Mon morning. Marginal SCA gusts
are expected on nearshore waters, pre and post frontal during
this time as well.

Marginal SCA gusts may continue on the nearshore waters through
the day Monday, nonetheless SCA seas are expected to continue
on the ocean. Higher confidence in a period of SCA winds re-
developing across all waters Mon eve/night in wake of secondary
cold front.

Thereafter...tranquil conditions are expected from Tuesday into
the end of the week as high pressure build in.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through the end of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...MD
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...NV
HYDROLOGY...MD