Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 282325 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 725 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST AND INTO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY...AND PASS OUT TO SEA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTHEAST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S AND 70S. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THRU WED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A THERMAL TROF WILL REDEVELOP WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA IN S/SW FLOW...WITH A CONTINUATION OF HIGH DEW POINT AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON WED LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THERMAL RIDGE TRAVERSES THE CWA THU. HOWEVER...SSWLY SFC FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LI AND CSTL CT. THE HIGH HUMIDITY HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE HX IN THE 90S ALMOST EVERYWHERE...AND APPROACH 100 ACROSS NJ ZONES AND EXTREME SWRN NY. LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES AS WELL INTO THE INTERIOR CT RIVER VALLEY. THE ADVY WAS EXTENDED FOR NYC THRU 00Z FRI. THE NAM IS DEVELOPING TSTMS DURING THE DAY WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROF. THIS IS A DEPARTURE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF PREV SOLN WHICH DELAYED PCPN. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE FORCING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE A SUFFICIENT TRIGGER. LIMITED POPS TO 30. HEIGHTS FALL THU NGT...SO THERE WILL BE BETTER UPR SUPPORT FOR TSTMS. COVERAGE IN QUESTION AS SOMETIMES IT IS DIFFICULT TO INITIATE AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROF. KEPT SCT COVERAGE AS A RESULT. PCPN ENDS BY EARLY FRI MRNG...DEEP MIXING ON NW FLOW KEEPS TEMPS A SOLID 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABV CLIMO. RH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER HOWEVER SO HX CLOSE TO THE TEMP. HIPRES TO THE S WITH THE STORM TRACK MAINLY TO THE N THRU THE WEEKEND. THE GFS DOES DROP A STRONGER SHRTWV THRU SAT NGT SPARKING SOME TSTMS. KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR NOW WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN FAVORING ARES N OF THE CWA. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED FOR TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY BEGINS TO CREEP UP MON AND TUE AS SLY COMPONENT FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN H5 TROF. LIMITED POPS TO 20 WITH THE BULK OF THE UPR FORCING STILL CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN/US BORDER. TEMPS IN THE PATTERN REMAIN ABV NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST. VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. KSWF/KHPN/KISP/KGON COULD SEE AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...AND KGON COULD GO IFR OR LOWER AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT. EXPECT ANY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z-14Z. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD VEER SW AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. WINDS THEN PICK UP AGAIN TO 5-10 KT BY ABOUT 15Z WED. SPEEDS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 10 KTS FOR CSTL AIRPORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AGAIN WED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AGAIN LATER WED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE SE IN SEA BREEZE WED. IF NOT...WINDS REMAIN S/SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AGAIN WED. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED NIGHT...MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LATE. .THU...EARLY MORNING HAZE WITH MVFR CONDS...THEN SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. .FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WIND FROM THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL JET. STILL THOUGH...GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT...STRONGEST WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. SLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCA COND ON THE OCEAN BY LATE AFTN...LASTING THRU THU NGT. ELSEWHERE WINDS BLW SCA LVLS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. WINDS AND SEAS THEN BLW SCA LVLS TIL POSSIBLY SAT ON THE OCEAN WHERE SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN. COND LIKELY IMPROVE TO BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN. && .HYDROLOGY... MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AROUND 3/4 INCH OF BASIN AVG PCPN IS POSSIBLE THU AFTN AND THU NGT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED FRI-TUE. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 29 2015... LOCATION..........RECORD HIGH/YEAR.........FORECAST HIGH NEWARK....................100/1949.................95 BRIDGEPORT.................96/2002.................91 CENTRAL PARK...............99/1949.................94 LAGUARDIA..................97/1949.................94 KENNEDY....................99/2002.................90 ISLIP......................96/2002.................89 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...PW MARINE...BC/JMC HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC CLIMATE...

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