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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 070543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1243 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS BRINGING RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX INLAND AS IT
MOVES EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW LINE FINALLY MADE IT TO KMGJ BUT RADAR INDICATES BULK OF THE
PCPN IS OVER. SLOW SEWD TREND TO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. NO SIG ACCUMS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ATTM. WILL MAINTAIN ADVY WITH MIXED PCPN AND SNOW
POSSIBLY FREEZING AS TEMPS FALL BLW FREEZING. 00Z NAM AND GFS
INDICATE PCPN ENDS BY 9-12Z. THIS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE BASED
ON THE RADAR COMPOSITE.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATE SUN FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER PCPN WILL END QUICKLY VERY EARLY SATURDAY AM...WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE.

TEMPS RISE TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY (GFS MOS
USED)...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES RESULTS IN A COLD
NIGHT FORM RADIATIONAL COOLING. LEANED TOWARDS COLDER NAM MOS
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL
POSSIBLY START OUT AS SNOW AND/OR SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ON
MONDAY...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
FAR NORTHERN ZONES COULD HOLD ON THE WINTRY MIXTURE LONGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE WARM AIR PUSHES THROUGH.

AT THIS TIME...LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT PRIMARILY INLAND. WHATEVER LITTLE ACCUMULATION THE
CITY/COAST COULD MANAGE WOULD BE WASHED AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY RAIN
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LINGERING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES EXITS TO THE E OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN ON
SAT.

P-TYPE IS ON THE VERGE OF CHANGING OVER TO -SN AT KSWF ALTHOUGH
PRECIP IS COMING TO AN END. A DEEP MOIST COLUMN IS STILL EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE DZ AND FZDZ AS TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
LATE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...RAIN WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL...BUT
COULD MIX WITH -SNPL OR COMPLETELY CHANGEOVER TO -SN BRIEFLY BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN RESULTING IN DZ. FZDZ IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AT KHPN...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TEMP IS LOW AND THEREFORE HAVE
LEFT AS PLAIN -DZ FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE MONITORED.

GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS THROUGH 10Z OR
SO...THEN IMPROVING CONDS W TO E THEREAFTER. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. ISOLD GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE AT KLGA/KEWR THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WINDS/GUSTS DIMINISH
SAT AFTN/EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT...IFR. SNOW...THEN SNOW/SLEET/RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND
SNOW/SLEET ACROSS INTERIOR.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. WINTRY MIX ACROSS INTERIOR EARLY...THEN RAIN.
SE WINDS 10-15 KT...BCMG NW LATE.
.MON NIGHT...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. W WINDS AOB 10 KT.
.TUE...VFR. W WINDS AOB 10 KT.
.WED...VFR. W WIND 15-25 KT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE REACHING MINIMAL SCA ON THE OCEAN ATTM...AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY SAT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. OCEAN SEAS COULD PUSH 6-7 FT BY MORNING...AND
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL BELOW 5 FT OUT EAST. SCA HAS
BEEN EXTENDED OUT EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS...WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING STORM. SEAS AND WINDS FALL
BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 3/4 ON AN
INCH LIQUID. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED.

A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING AROUND HALF INCH TO AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FROM LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD
EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067-
     068.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG
EQUIPMENT...