Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 021158 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 758 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LOOKING AT ONGOING ISOLATED THUNDER OVER N CENTRAL PA...AND WITH SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO FALL TO -2 TO 2 BY 15Z AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. BEFORE THEN...HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE TO DEAL WITH THROUGH AROUND 14Z. APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER NC/NE PA MISSES US TO THE N...SO WATCHING AREA ALONG PA/MD BORDER WHICH RADAR AND HRRR/RAP TIME INTO FAR W ZONES 14-15Z. UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR/RAP HOURLY POPS AND SWITCHED OVER TO AREAL COVERAGE WORDING WITH SHOWERS FOR PREDOMINATE P-TYPE. GIVEN FORECAST LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 300-750 J/KG ON MOST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWALTER INDICES...FEEL PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...EVEN WITHOUT ANY THUNDER. IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE. ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT INDEED HAPPENS. FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL. FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME. A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY E/NE AOB 10 KT THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDS DURING THE AFTN. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR...ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF IN THE TAFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z W TERMINALS AND 15Z TO 18Z E TERMINALS. WIND FORECAST THIS AFTN AND EVE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR OR LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI... .TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR. .WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/ LOW CLOUDS.
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&& .MARINE...
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MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MIGHT BE ABLE TO DROP SCA BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEA SWELL SUBSIDE. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND. HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY 1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...24 MARINE...JC/MALOIT HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT

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