Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201146 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 746 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT LATEST TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...AND SKY COVER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE. STRATUS THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND THEN SCATTER...LEADING TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CONTINUES WITH THE NAM MOS TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN GFS MOS. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF SUN...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS. WIDESPREAD STRATUS RETURNS TONIGHT...WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. MODELS ARE NOT DEPICTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS WITH DRIZZLE WORDING. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES TODAY. THIS RISK COULD BECOME HIGH LATE IN THE DAY WITH STRENGTHENING SE WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE APPROACHING DIGGING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST...HOWEVER SOME OF THE RAINFALL COULD GET INTO THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT REGION. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SUN COULD COME OUT FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND IF THE LOW REMAINS FURTHER EAST. THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SO EXPECT POPS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO RAIN IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME AS DRYING CONTINUES. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY...WHILE A WEAK COASTAL WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING SE/S AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BACK E/ESE TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR THIS MORNING AND BECOME SCT-BKN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER PROB OF BKN CIGS IN AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TERMINALS. MVFR CONDS LIKELY TO RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY LOWER TO IFR IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN REDUCING VSBY TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ADD VSBY RESTRICTION AT THIS TIME. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUNDAY...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS IN MORNING...IMPROVE TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW PROB OF TSTM. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. .MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TODAY AS SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN SEAS TO BUILD. SEAS WILL APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY...AND REACH SCA LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUESDAY. INCREASING EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WED AS SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .HYDROLOGY... LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...NV MARINE...BC/GC HYDROLOGY...BC

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