Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 171832 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 132 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure approaches from the west today and moves across the area tonight. Low pressure will then track through southern Ontario and Quebec this weekend, with a couple of frontal passages Saturday night and late Sunday. High pressure will builds in for early to mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast on track with only minor adjustments needed. Winds are slightly stronger than originally forecast, but should continue to weaken through the day as high pressure builds eastward. Otherwise, sunny and dry conditions are expected today with the aforementioned high pressure. High temperatures today will climb into the upper 30s to near 40. This will be right around or a degree or two below normal for this time of year. A MAV/MET/ECS blend was in good agreement and used for temperatures today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A warm front approaches tonight and moves across the area Saturday morning. High and mid level clouds increase through the night. Cloud cover Saturday morning associated with the frontal passage should give way to afternoon sunshine, allowing temps for NE NJ/NYC metro to reach the upper 50s, but holding in the upper 40s and lower 50s for the coast. Conditions, even with the frontal passage, are expected to remain dry. Tonight`s lows fall into the 20s and 30s. Temperatures should be a few degrees above normal tonight, and well above normal on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Near zonal flow will give way to brief NE troughing early next week, before transitioning to sharp ridging toward mid week. In terms of sensible weather this is translating into what looks like a rather quiet and mild period of weather. A northern stream shortwave and associated low pressure system will track across Southern Ontario/Quebec this weekend, with a weak cold front passing through the region Saturday Night. There wont be much change in the airmass behind this front, and we should see another day of above normal temperatures on Sunday. Meanwhile, a cutoff low from the SW will shear NE across the CONUS, but should remain separate from northern stream flow and keep precip south of the region. Models coming into agreement with another northern stream shortwave amplifying and digging through the NE US Sunday night into Monday. This should have a secondary cold front come through the region late Sunday, with a brief shot of CAA and a return to more seasonable temps Monday and Tuesday. Once again this frontal passage appears to be dry. Thereafter, good model agreement on deep layered ridging building back into the region midweek. No signals for organized precipitation, with once again a moderation in temps to above seasonable norms in return flow. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR as a high pressure ridge slides across from the west. A warm front will pass through late tonight into Sat morning. Winds at the NYC terminals except for KJFK/KLGA continue just right of 310 mg/300 true, so have held them there through the afternoon, with gusts up to 20 kt. KEWR is mostly left of there but does occasionally go back right whenever winds gust briefly. Otherwise, high confidence in winds diminishing tonight and then backing SW late. As the warm front passes through there could be some lower clouds Sat morning. TAF shows only SCT attm but will have to watch for brief BKN030 or BKN035. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Winds may occasionally back left of 300 true/310 mag this afternoon during lulls. KLGA TAF Comments: Winds may occasionally back left of 300 true/310 mag this afternoon during lulls. KEWR TAF Comments: Winds may occasionally veer right of 300 true/310 mag this afternoon during gusts. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday afternoon-Sunday afternoon...VFR. .Sunday night-Monday...VFR. NW winds right of 310 mag 10-15kt with gusts 15-20kt. .Monday night through Tuesday evening...VFR. .Late Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR possible in rain showers.
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&& .MARINE... Winds and seas have subsided across the Eastern Sound and Bays and will continue to do so as high pressure builds across the area. As such, the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. For the ocean waters, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until this evening. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions then prevail tonight through tomorrow with a high pressure ridge and weak pressure gradient shifting through. Winds then pick up again Saturday night into Sunday with the approach and passage of a cold front, but probably with winds and seas remaining below advisory criteria. A stronger cold front then follows on Sunday night, with marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions possible primarily on the ocean waters late at night into Monday. Diminishing winds and seas follow Monday night and Tuesday with another high pressure ridge shifting into the region. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the next 7 days as any snow melt will be gradual. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/NV NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...BC/NV AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...JC HYDROLOGY...BC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.