Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 240628 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 228 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND PASS EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LOCALS AREA. HOWEVER WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS E LI/SECT ON THU...OTHERWISE DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND BEACHES ON THURSDAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF NYC TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...PUSHING E OF KGON BY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING THE CHC OF ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY E OF NYC. SHRA/TSTMS HAVE CEASED FOR THE TIME BEING WITH VFR CONDS ACROSS THE AREA. COULD BE PATCHY MVFR FOG WHERE WINDS LIGHTEN BELOW 5 KT AND EVEN LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND EAST OF KISP/KBDR OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY AT KSWF EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCT OUT BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WITH THE INCREASING AND DRYING NLY FLOW. VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z FRI...EXCEPT IN ANY ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS LATER TODAY WHERE THEY COULD BRIEFLY DROP OF MVFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER DURING THE DAY...THEREFORE DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. IN LIGHT OF THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CHC IS AT KGON/KBDR AND POSSIBLY KJFK LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT KJFK...HAVE ONLY TEMPO`ED FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME INDICATING THAT WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BACK 30-40 DEGREES AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 18Z. NYC TERMINALS: DIRECTIONS BECOME RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC BY 09Z AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. .SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL KEEP SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS...THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.