Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KOKX 071138
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
638 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016
Low pressure moves well to the east today as high pressure
builds tonight into Thursday. A couple of cold fronts will move
across the region Thursday night through early Saturday. High
pressure briefly builds into the region. Low pressure then
approaches Sunday and moves across the area early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Per latest observations, radar trends, and mesoscale models,
spotty light rain or drizzle will continue this morning before
tapering off before afternoon. Early this morning, some interior
locations may be cold enough for spotty light freezing rain or
drizzle. A special weather statement issued earlier for interior
Otherwise, low pressure departs with ridge building from the west.
Temperatures per a mos blend rise to the middle 40s to around 50.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Upper trough begins to approach from the west. At the surface,
ridge builds, but gives way to approaching cold front late
Thursday as low pressure moves well to the north.
Patchy clouds tonight, then an increase in clouds is expected
Thursday ahead of the trough, and associated PVA.
The weather will remain dry though along with near normal
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A series of weak shortwaves will rotate around a closed low over
Canada, bringing a cold front and surface trough moving through the
Mid Atlantic on Friday. This may result in isolated to scattered
rain/snow showers, along with a cold air mass. Temperatures will be
a good 5 degrees below normal on Friday.
The upper low moves east Friday night with weak upper ridging
building in for Saturday. The upper flow become nearly zonal across
the continental United States through the weekend. Expect highs on
Saturday to be a good 7-10 degrees below normal.
With high pressure moving off the northeast coast Sunday a return
flow develops and warm advection sets up into Monday.
The next shortwave to affect the area will move on shore of the
Pacific northwest Friday night and quickly move across the country.
Cyclogenesis occurs across the central plains Sunday into Sunday
night with the low tracking through the Great Lakes. Precipitation
Sunday night may start as snow inland and transition to rain Monday
and will be dependent on how quickly the warmer air moves into the
area. If a warmer layer moves in aloft before the low level cold air
is scoured out there will be a chance for some freezing rain Sunday
night. With the uncertainty did not include in the forecast at this
time and leaned toward a warmer solution.
Drier weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday, although some
scattered rain or snow showers are possible on Wednesday.
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure south of Long Island will track out to sea
today. High pressure will build in behind the low tonight.
Mainly MVFR can be expected through 21Z...then gradual improvement
to VFR is expected tonight. Areas of IFR, with ceilings around
600-800 feet, are possible through 14Z, particularly across New
Jersey and up the Hudson Valley.
Light rain and drizzle will reduce visibilities to around 4-5 miles
at times through 14Z.
A light northeast flow this morning gives way to variable flow this
afternoon, then becomes northwest tonight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments are possible for changing ceilings.
KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments are possible for changing ceilings.
KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments are possible for changing ceilings.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments are possible for changing ceilings.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments are possible for changing ceilings.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments are possible for changing ceilings.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Thursday-Friday...Isolated rain/snow showers could result in brief
MVFR/IFR conditions. Gusty W-NW flow 10-20KT with G25-30KT, highest
Thursday night and Friday.
.Friday night...VFR. NW winds 15-20KT. G25KT in the evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Low pressure located south of the waters quickly departs to the
east. High pressure builds late today through tonight. East winds
gusting to 25 kt will diminish as they shift later today. Seas
remain rather rough this morning, and latest guidance suggests 5
footers remain across the waters through the day. Since the seas
are already higher than guidance forecast, will extend the SCA
through the day today.
Winds diminish further tonight as the pressure gradient remains
relaxed. Westerly winds increase later Thursday as low pressure
passes well to the north and the pressure gradient tightens across
Small Craft conditions are expected Thursday night on the ocean
waters, and increase to near gale force during the day Friday. For
the non-ocean waters, SCA gusts can be expected on Friday. SCA gusts
continue on the ocean waters into Friday night, then subside late as
high pressure begins to build to the west. Saturday morning winds
and seas are expected to be below SCA levels on all the waters as
high pressure continues to build. Winds and seas increase once again
early next week as another low pressure system moves across the
Generally dry weather is expected over the next few days.
There is a chance of a widespread 1/2 inch or more of precipitation
from Sunday night through Monday.
The New York City transmitter, KWO35, is off the air. Time for a
return to service is unknown.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-