Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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572 FXUS61 KOKX 170216 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1016 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A broad area of high pressure builds in from the west overnight and will remain in control through next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Minor adjustments to T/Td/Winds/Sky based on latest obs and trends. Winds/gusts have been lower than previously forecast and CAA should be turning off in the next couple of hours. However sustained winds along the coast should remain high enough to keep temps from plummeting overnight. Thus, no changes to current frost advsy headlines.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As ridging builds in from the south, winds will continue to diminish on Tue under clear skies. Temperatures likely only topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s once again. Dry and seasonably cool for Tuesday night with the chance of some patchy frost across far interior zones once again. Confidence is marginal, so later shifts will have to evaluate whether a Frost Advisory will be needed for late Tuesday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridging both aloft and at the surface prevails through much of the period. Initially, a short wave trough over central Canada and the northern plains translates east during the mid week period, riding over top a broad, flat ridge over the southern half of the country. This feature sends a dry cold frontal passage through the region Thursday night. Thereafter, the upper air pattern becomes amplified with a trough moving into the western U.S., with heights building across the east. While amplified, the flow is still fairly progressive with the trough approaching the east early next week. The associated cold front approaches Monday into next Tuesday. Throughout the period, expect abundant sunshine and above normal temperatures. Daytime highs will be around 70, with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure builds to the west tonight, then drifts south into the mid Atlantic states during Tuesday. VFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday night-Friday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds have been falling short of SCA levels across western LI Sound and LI bays, therefore have cancelled the SCA. Gusts remain marginal on eastern LI Sound and NY Harbor, but have left the advsy up through 06z. Have also scaled back the end time to 12z on ocean zones east of Fire Island Inlet as all guidance has winds and seas below advsy levels by then. High pressure then prevails through the upcoming weekend with sub SCA conditions. Marginal SCA conditions are possible Thursday into Thursday night on the eastern ocean waters ahead of a weak cold front with SW winds gusting up to 20 kt.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues expected through next weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>008. NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>070. NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-338. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$

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