Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 230604 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 204 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...COLD FRONTS OFTEN ARE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE. LATEST 05Z ANALYSIS...PLACES THE FRONT RIGHT ON TOP OF NYC WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W. ALREADY SEEING GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT KMGJ. TO THE EAST...SOME PATCHY FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE SHOULD BE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WITH LITTLE FANFARE AND LIGHT RAINFALL. LOWS TONIGHT 45-50 MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST GFS LAMP.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS. THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT. ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE 12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT TODAY. VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 11-12Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH ISO -SHRA AND REDUCED VSBYS PRECEDING WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WNW. WINDS GENERALLY WNW BEFORE AROUND 12Z...THEN NW THEREAFTER. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT FOR THE CITY TERMINALS BEFORE 09Z. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE. WIND DIRECTION IN THE CITY FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25KT. .THU...VFR. NW G30KT. .FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR. .SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR. .SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
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&& .MARINE... SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GALES SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES. THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON. && .FIRE WEATHER... WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY. STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU. CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THU. && .HYDROLOGY...
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A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
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&& $$

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