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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 161306
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
906 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION HAS SLOWED DOWN JUST A BIT AND THE CLOUDS ARE
TAKING A BIT LONGER TO DROP SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TODAY...PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A LIGHT NW FLOW BRINGING IN SOME
DRIER AIR THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL THEN VEER BACK TO THE W/SW
THIS AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO FORECAST ALONG THE
COAST.

MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE WESTERLY FLOW AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO WARM UP TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...WITH A FEW SPOTS WEST OF NYC APPROACHING 85. COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH A COOL DOWN
IN THE AFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE FRONT.

USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND
SHIFT BACK TO THE NW WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION.

THEREAFTER...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON FRI.

USED A MET/MAV MOS BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. CONDOS WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT TEMPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR COASTAL CT AND LONG ISLAND AS
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AND KEEP TEMPS DOWN...COMPARED TO THE
INTERIOR. WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY...AND
MODELS INDICATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIFTING TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA. HOWEVER...THINK THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. LATEST GFS SEEMS A BIT OVERBLOWN
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF...AT LEAST COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF.

LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AND WITH THE HIGH DEPARTING...SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL WORK THEIR WAY NORTH TOWARDS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA MONDAY-TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES WILL
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...INDICATING WETTER WEATHER IMPACTING THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A TROUGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW-MED CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION TODAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFTS MAY BE OFF
AN HR OR TWO AND GUSTS MAY LINGER AN HR OR TWO LONGER THAN
FORECAST. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE TIMING OF THE SEA
BREEZE...EXPECT IT TO BE LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE GUSTY NW WINDS
DURING THE DAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF GUSTS
BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR STRONGER GUSTS OR TIMING CHANGES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS THROUGH THE DAY. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE AN HR
LATER/EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS THROUGH THE DAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDS IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR FRI FROM THE NW. LINGERING SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS TODAY WILL KEEP A SCA POSTED...HOWEVER...SEAS ARE ALREADY
BELOW GUIDANCE AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SCA COULD BE
CANCELLED SOONER.

SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE NEW WEEK AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND DEPARTS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. WITH LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY IN THE
NEW WEEK...DEVELOPING SWELLS WILL PUSH SEAS TO 5-7 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...BC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW