Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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417 FXUS61 KOKX 261529 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1129 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the coast today as a cold front approaches from the west. The front passes across the region after midnight into early Tuesday morning accompanied by showers. The front will likely linger just offshore through the end of the week...resulting in a period of rather unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast remains on track. Only minor adjustments were made to cloud coverage, temperatures, and dewpoints to account for latest obs and trends. The high slides off shore causing winds to veer to south with warm advection this AFTN. Some thin cirrus through the day which thickens late. Overall, a mostly sunny day. Not much spread in the MOS - Seasonable. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... NWP remains consistent with timing of FROPA and PCPN. Rain will quickly traverse the region from West to East after midnight into the early morning on Tuesday. Rain should actually end by 12Z in the NY Metro. Have lowered PCPN totals back to around 1/2" based consensus. Latest GEFS also agreeing on this. Temps on Tuesday reach the mid 70s - with some upper 70s in the NY Metro. Used the warmer NAM MOS as thinking we should get partial sun with W-SW flow in the wake of the front. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models are in good agreement with a cutoff low pressure system over the Great Lakes Tue night dropping into the Ohio Valley on Wed/Wed Night. From this point forward...uncertainty increases on the track of this system due to blocking both to the east and west. However...it does appear to linger in this general vicinity through the remainder of the week. The 00z EC remains a western outlier with the upper low but has trended slightly closer to the general consensus. This setup is pointing towards a more unsettled weather pattern for the mid to late week period. At the surface...cold frontal rains expected to be S/E of the local area by 00z Wed. Dry and seasonable weather into Wed morning...although a piece of vort energy lifting up the east coast and resulting in a weak wave of low pres at the sfc may trigger some showers during the aftn. Have maintained the combination of a ensemble/operational forecast approach mid to late week. This will bring the potential for additional waves of low pressure to develop along the cold front just offshore. Periods of rain will be possible mid to late week with a frontal boundary extending from sfc low pressure W-SW of the region. Temps on Wednesday are expected to be slightly above normal. Thereafter...temps should be near seasonable under a maritime airmass. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure moves offshore this afternoon with a cold front approaching the terminals tonight. S Winds increasing to 10-15 kt this afternoon with gusts around 20 kt. The strongest winds are expected at KJFK and KISP. S gusts 20-25 kt may continue at KJFK and KISP into the evening. Otherwise, S winds around 10 kt are forecast overnight veering to the SW towards day break Tuesday. VFR through around midnight, then SHRA move in from the west with the cold front lowering conditions to IFR until early Tuesday morning. Ceilings should gradually become MVFR/VFR from west to east after 14-15z on Tuesday but latest guidance shows unsettled conditions remaining into early afternoon. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Winds may be variable between S and SE early this afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. .Outlook for 12Z Tuesday through Friday... .TUE...IFR in SHRA early morning, then becoming VFR from west to east mid to late morning. .WED...VFR. .THU and FRI...Potential IFR/MVFR in showers RA. NE winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt possible.
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&& .MARINE... Winds and seas forecast on track. Winds veer to the south this afternoon and gradually increase from west to east as a cold front approaches. SCA is up for the overnight on the Ocean and the south shore bays. Winds subside with the frontal passage on Tuesday, but seas on the ocean remain elevated. Long Term.... Sub SCA conditions likely return for Tue night into Wed...then potential for SCA conds to develop once again with persistent easterly flow for remainder of the week. There is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the specifics of the forecast during this time period...however there is a low probability of gale force winds...mainly on the ocean. && .HYDROLOGY... Around an 1/2" from midnight into early Tuesday morning expected. Additional bouts of rain are possible during the mid to late week. No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time for overnight into Tuesday morning other then the typical urban ponding. The PCPN later in the week may pose urban flood issues with the potential for a couple of inches of rain. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides will be increasing through the week due to a new moon on Friday. A persistent moderate easterly flow during mid to late week may result in coastal flooding concerns. At this time...it appears that minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is a possibility late in the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Tongue NEAR TERM...JM/Tongue SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...IRD MARINE...24/JM/Tongue HYDROLOGY...24/Tongue TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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