Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 270542 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1242 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...TRACKING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE COASTAL LOW IS PULLING AWAY QUICKLY. ANY LINGERING BANDS OF PRECIP WILL END...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH UP THE COLUMN PER LAPS SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SNOW. TEMPS ON TRACK WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL TRACK NEWD TNGT. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE PASSES ON THANKSGIVING. LAST OF THE PCPN TAPERING OFF THRU 7Z. MAINLY MVFR OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE EXITING SNOW. LITTLE OR NO NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION. MVFR CIGS LINGER AFT THE SNOW ENDS...PERHAPS BOUNCING FROM TIME TO TIME TO VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR -SHSN THANKSGIVING WITH THE WEAK UPR SYS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TNGT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...THEN SETTLE IN AROUND 310 TRUE. STRONGEST WINDS KISP AND KGON. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON... .THU NIGHT...BECOMING VFR. .FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES. .SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR. .MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE COASTAL LOW HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...WITH SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SPIKING AS HIGH AS 13 FT. THE DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND REPLACED GALES WITH SCA ALL WATERS EXCEPT EASTERN OCEAN ZONE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH FORK. HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...AND COULD LINGER OUT EAST THU NIGHT. OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353- 355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW SHORT TERM...FIG LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...JMC/MET MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN/PW HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN

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