Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 170528
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
128 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches from the northwest overnight as the
associated low tracks through southeastern Canada. The cold
front moves across the region Sunday. The low moves slowly
eastward Sunday night. Another low may bring a weak front
through on Monday followed briefly by weak high pressure on
Tuesday. Yet another low to our northeast will bring a cold
front through on Wednesday. Weak high pressure takes hold until
a frontal system impacts us late Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Made minor adjustments to the chances for rain overnight based
on the latest CAMs and global guidance.
Adjusted dewpoints slightly lower as well as temperatures
compared to previous forecast.
Low pressure north of the Great Lakes will move eastward
overnight. A pre-frontal trough in association with the low
approaches towards daybreak. This, in combination with a
developing low level jet along the coast at around 925 hPa will
aid in development of some showers across coastal areas. The
strongest winds in association with the jet will remain offshore
however, so just expecting some showers. Though some widely
scattered showers may be associated with brief moderate rainfall
for eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut as these
areas will be closer to the low level jet. Meanwhile, the cold
front approaching inland will allow for the development of
showers across the Lower Hudson Valley during the same time
frame, generally after 2 am. The pre-frontal trough and cold
front will move east through the night.
With clouds and warm air advection, overnight lows will be warm for
this time of year, mainly in the 40s region-wide.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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The cold front continues to push through the eastern half of
the forecast area Sunday morning, as the low pushes into
northern New England and southeastern Canada, but shower
activity in association with the cold front looks to weaken as
there will be little moisture to work with and upper level
support.
Some instability showers are possible later in the day, mainly
for inland areas for the late morning into the afternoon, with
somewhat steep low level lapse rates noted in the thermal
profiles. However, with dew points dropping through the day as
drier air works in at the lower levels, there will be some dry
air to overcome and at least some of what falls will evaporate
before hitting the ground. Continued warm, with highs generally
in the upper 50s to around 60.
Dry conditions with more seasonable, but slightly above normal
temperatures expected for Sunday night as high pressure builds
in from the southwest.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The long term looks to be fairly quiet and dry until Friday
despite a large upper level trough over the Northeast for much
of next week.
The upper level trough over the area on Monday night and
Tuesday becomes reinforced by mid-level energy moving in from
the northwest. Despite weak surface high pressure attempting to
build in, these mid- level disturbances may result in weak
frontal waves to move over the area through the middle of the
week. These weak systems look to be mostly deprived of moisture
so there doesn`t appear to be much in the way of chances for
precipitation. The best chance will be during the day and
afternoon on Wednesday as cooler air aloft may provide for some
instability showers as a weak frontal system pushes through.
Best chance to see any sort of precipitation would be areas to
the north but capped PoPs at slight chance.
The latest models appear to have shifted their thinking for
mid-to- late week. Rather than developing a ridge, many keep the
trough lingering with a few developing zonal flow in the
mid/upper-levels. Have trended temperatures down in response to
this change, but decided not to go with the NBM`s solution as it
is 10-15 degrees colder than the previous forecast. Its
possible temperatures may be lowered further from the current
forecast, should model solutions hold firm in this new solution.
Another frontal system `may` impact the area late Friday or
into the weekend bringing rain and/or snow to the area. Kept
POPs at low-end chance for now as the latest guidance does not
agree on the track with this system. The 12Z ICON and GFS show
direct impacts to the area, the 12Z GDPS shows the low tracking
too far south and the 12Z ECMWF does not even have the low
materializing Friday into the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight and moves
across the region today. The cold front will then continue to
move east and farther away from the region tonight.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Scattered rain showers and potential MVFR conditions are
possible early this morning, mainly in the 10-14Z timeframe.
General SW flow 5-10 kt flow picks up overnight to near 10-15
kt with gusts near 20 kt by early morning. Then, winds will
become more westerly behind the cold front after 14-16Z with
winds further increasing to 15-20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
are expected near 20 kt for early morning, and then 25 to 30 kt
for late morning into afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Start and end time of gusts could be 1-3 hours off from
forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Late Night: VFR.
Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming WNW in the evening
Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds 15G20-25kt.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain inland, possibly
mixed with snow. W winds 10-15G20kt.
Thursday: VFR. WNW winds 10-15G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
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.MARINE...
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No changes to the winds and seas with this update, and a SCA on
the ocean waters remains in effect. Updated the chances for rain
overnight and into Sunday.
Winds increase out ahead of an approaching frontal system with
a low level jet developing, mainly after midnight. SCA gusts
expected over the ocean waters and the south shore bays and SCA
issued starting 2 am Sunday morning. Isolated gusts to SCA level
is possible over the eastern sound and Peconic and Gardiner`s
Bays, but did not issue SCA here due to how marginal the winds
were. Winds diminish mid Sunday morning onward, with south shore
bays dropping below 25 kt by late morning, the western ocean
zone by early afternoon, and the other 2 ocean zones just before
midnight as waves linger above 5 ft over those zones. Waves on
the ocean will top out 5 to 7 ft during the time frame the SCAs
are in effect.
Thereafter, winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA
criteria through rest of Sunday night.
Winds and seas will be below advisory levels Monday until TUesday
morning. SCA conditions may return with 25 kt gusts on ocean waters
early Tuesday morning, subsiding Tuesday night, with gusts close to
returning to SCA levels on most waters on Thursday. Waves may also
reach close to 5 feet on Tuesday on ocean waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected tonight through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ345.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/BR
NEAR TERM...JM/JP/BR/MET
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JP/BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/BR