Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 291335 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 935 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly move across the region today. High pressure will then build into the region tonight into Tuesday. The high will give way to a cold front late Wednesday into Wednesday night, followed by high pressure for the end of the week and into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast on track with just some minor adjustments to reflect latest observations. A cold front will slowly move across the region today, providing the area with just some morning clouds. Behind the front, west- northwest flow will help clear skies out by afternoon and allow temperatures to warm into the upper 80s to near 90. The air mass will remain relatively dry, so heat index values will be close to actual air temps. Followed a MAV/MET/ECS blend for temperatures today. There is a high risk of rip currents today for Atlantic facing beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... High pressure builds in from the NW tonight and Tuesday, with mostly clear skies. Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s in NYC, to the 60s most elsewhere, to 55-60 in the interior valleys and the Long Island Pine Barrens. Tuesday will remain dry and sunny with highs climbing into the upper 70s and 80s. The threat of a high risk for rip current development continues due to a SE swells from distant Hurricane Gaston. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As ridge resides well to the west, upper trough approaches the northeast Wednesday and Thursday, with its axis passing east by Friday. Ridging then builds behind it. Surface high pressure early in the period will give way to approaching cold front Wednesday night. This front moves east Thursday as high pressure builds behind providing plenty of sunshine and dry weather through the weekend. A dry period is expected, with best chance for rain occurring along and ahead of the front late Wednesday-Wednesday night and into Thursday. Due to ample support aloft, and consistent model output of precip, feel scattered activity looks like a good bet mainly Wednesday night. Seasonable or slightly above seasonable temperatures will warm ahead of the front Wednesday, averaging at least 5 degrees above normal. Then temperatures settle back closer to or just below seasonal norms behind the front late this week. Some moderating in temps likely next weekend. The threat for rough surf and high risk for rip current development should continue through the mid to late week due to SE swells from distant Hurricane Gaston. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR. A weak cold front will slowly move through the terminals this morning. The front comes through dry with ceilings of 5000 to 8000 feet. High pressure builds in behind the front this afternoon and tonight. Southwest to west winds shift to the northwest with the passage of the front, and for a time winds will be around 310 magnetic. In the northwest flow gusts up to 18 KTS will be possible at the NYC metro terminals, however, gusts may be less frequent than indicated in the TAFs. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: There is a low chance that a sea breeze may move into KJFK or remain just south of the terminal after 17Z. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .Outlook for 12Z Tuesday through Friday... .Tuesday-Wednesday Afternoon...VFR. .Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning...Showers/tstms possible with MVFR conditions. .Thursday Afternoon-Friday...VFR. && .MARINE... Ocean seas will continue to slowly build in response to long period swells generated by distant Hurricane Gaston. There is a low chance that the combination of wind waves generated by 15-kt WSW flow and these incoming swells could bring ocean seas up to 5 ft on Monday, but since NWPS guidance has tended to run high with seas, capped max seas at 4 ft Monday. Will keep mention of some 5 ft seas in the forecast for late tonight and Tuesday, however confidence is low with guidance running a bit high. Will let the day shift re-evaluate the need for a Small Craft advisory for the 5 ft seas tonight and Tuesday. From Tuesday night through Thursday, and possibly into Friday, ocean seas will remain elevated due to long period swells generated by Gaston. The non-ocean waters should remain rather tranquil, although it could get a little rough as some of the ocean swells make it into the extreme eastern portion of Long Island Sound and western Block Island Sound. Winds should remain below SCA criteria, although they will increase on Wednesday ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Gusts on a northerly wind flow are also anticipated as the waters sit between the departing front, and high pressure building late Thursday and Thursday night. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...BC/PW AVIATION...FEB/MET MARINE...BC/Goodman/PW HYDROLOGY...BC

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