Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KOKX 291335
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
935 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
A cold front will slowly move across the region today. High
pressure will then build into the region tonight into Tuesday.
The high will give way to a cold front late Wednesday into
Wednesday night, followed by high pressure for the end of the
week and into next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track with just some minor adjustments to reflect
A cold front will slowly move across the region today, providing
the area with just some morning clouds. Behind the front, west-
northwest flow will help clear skies out by afternoon and allow
temperatures to warm into the upper 80s to near 90. The air mass
will remain relatively dry, so heat index values will be close to
actual air temps. Followed a MAV/MET/ECS blend for temperatures
There is a high risk of rip currents today for Atlantic
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the NW tonight and Tuesday, with
mostly clear skies. Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s in
NYC, to the 60s most elsewhere, to 55-60 in the interior valleys
and the Long Island Pine Barrens.
Tuesday will remain dry and sunny with highs climbing into
the upper 70s and 80s.
The threat of a high risk for rip current development continues
due to a SE swells from distant Hurricane Gaston.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As ridge resides well to the west, upper trough approaches the
northeast Wednesday and Thursday, with its axis passing east by
Friday. Ridging then builds behind it.
Surface high pressure early in the period will give way to
approaching cold front Wednesday night. This front moves east
Thursday as high pressure builds behind providing plenty of
sunshine and dry weather through the weekend.
A dry period is expected, with best chance for rain occurring along
and ahead of the front late Wednesday-Wednesday night and into
Due to ample support aloft, and consistent model output of precip,
feel scattered activity looks like a good bet mainly Wednesday
Seasonable or slightly above seasonable temperatures will warm
ahead of the front Wednesday, averaging at least 5 degrees above
normal. Then temperatures settle back closer to or just below
seasonal norms behind the front late this week. Some moderating
in temps likely next weekend.
The threat for rough surf and high risk for rip current development
should continue through the mid to late week due to SE swells
from distant Hurricane Gaston.
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. A weak cold front will slowly move through the terminals
this morning. The front comes through dry with ceilings of 5000 to
High pressure builds in behind the front this afternoon and tonight.
Southwest to west winds shift to the northwest with the passage of
the front, and for a time winds will be around 310 magnetic. In the
northwest flow gusts up to 18 KTS will be possible at the NYC metro
terminals, however, gusts may be less frequent than indicated in the
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: There is a low chance that a sea breeze may move
into KJFK or remain just south of the terminal after 17Z.
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
.Outlook for 12Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning...Showers/tstms possible with
Ocean seas will continue to slowly build in response to long
period swells generated by distant Hurricane Gaston. There is a
low chance that the combination of wind waves generated by 15-kt
WSW flow and these incoming swells could bring ocean seas up to 5
ft on Monday, but since NWPS guidance has tended to run high
with seas, capped max seas at 4 ft Monday. Will keep mention of
some 5 ft seas in the forecast for late tonight and Tuesday,
however confidence is low with guidance running a bit high. Will
let the day shift re-evaluate the need for a Small Craft advisory
for the 5 ft seas tonight and Tuesday.
From Tuesday night through Thursday, and possibly into Friday,
ocean seas will remain elevated due to long period swells
generated by Gaston. The non-ocean waters should remain rather
tranquil, although it could get a little rough as some of the
ocean swells make it into the extreme eastern portion of Long
Island Sound and western Block Island Sound.
Winds should remain below SCA criteria, although they will increase
on Wednesday ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Gusts on a
northerly wind flow are also anticipated as the waters sit
between the departing front, and high pressure building late
Thursday and Thursday night.
No significant widespread precipitation is expected.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-