Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 271135 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 635 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THEN STALL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL AIDE IN THE TRANSPORT OF WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 6C BY EVENING. GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER A PATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGHS OF LOWER TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SW WILL DAMPEN AS IT MOVES E TODAY ALTHOUGH REMNANT ENERGY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THEN CONTINUE EWD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT AND SUN. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN THEN STALLS S OF LONG ISLAND WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING ALONG IT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHC SHOWERS SUN AS IT MOVES ACROSS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRES THAT RIDES ALONG THE FRONT TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HOWEVER...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON MON...THEN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERALL...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN A TREND TOWARD MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...ONE BIG FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S ON MON WITH A MAGNITUDE OF AT LEAST 1050 MB. THIS WILL TRANSLATE SEWD AND THE VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THE TIME IT GETS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...HOWEVER WINTERLIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS SHORTWAVES ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN CANADA TRANSPORTS SOME OF THIS AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. GFS...GEFS AND SREF ENS MEMBERS ARE INDICATING THAT PORTIONS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND COULD BE BRUSHED BY SOME LIGHT PCPN...WHICH WOULD FALL AS SNOW...LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS ANOTHER WAVE PASSES TO THE S. HAVE ADDED SCHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT WSW SFC FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT...BACKING TO S/SW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS LOWER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW PROB FOR MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KSWF IN -SHRA. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED... .SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC -SHRA. -SHSN POSSIBLE AT KSWF SUN NIGHT. .MON-WED...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA...BUT MARGINAL 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATER SUN THROUGH MON...WITH NEXT CHANCE OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS TUE/TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.