Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 161944 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 344 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight as the associated low tracks through southeastern Canada. The cold front moves across the region Sunday. The low moves slowly eastward Sunday night. Another low may bring a weak front through on Monday followed briefly by weak high pressure on Tuesday. Yet another low to our northeast will bring a cold front through on Wednesday. Weak high pressure takes hold until a frontal system impacts us late Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Dry for the first half of the night tonight as weak high pressure pushes off the New England coast. Low pressure north of the Great Lakes in southern Canada will move eastward through the night. A pre- frontal trough in association with the low approaches towards daybreak. This, in combination with a developing low level jet along the coast at around 925 hPa will aid in development of some showers across coastal areas. The strongest winds in association with the jet will remain offshore however, so just expecting some showers. Though some isolated showers may be associated with brief moderate rainfall for eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut as these areas will be closer to the low level jet. Meanwhile, the cold front approaching inland will allow for the development of showers across the Lower Hudson Valley during the same time frame, generally after 2 am. The pre-frontal trough and cold front will move east through the night. With clouds and warm air advection, overnight lows will be warm for this time of year, in the 40s region-wide.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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The cold front continues to push through the eastern half of the forecast area Sunday morning, as the low pushes into northern New England and southeastern Canada, but shower activity in association with the cold front looks to weaken as there will be little moisture to work with and upper level support. Some instability showers are possible later in the day, mainly for inland areas for the late morning into the afternoon, with somewhat steep low level lapse rates noted in the thermal profiles. However, with dew points dropping through the day as drier air works in at the lower levels, there will be some dry air to overcome and at least some of what falls will evaporate before hitting the ground. Continued warm, with highs generally in the upper 50s to around 60. Dry conditions with more seasonable, but slightly above normal temperatures expected for Sunday night as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The long term looks to be fairly quiet and dry until Friday despite a large upper level trough over the Northeast for much of next week. The upper level trough over the area on Monday night and Tuesday becomes reinforced by mid-level energy moving in from the northwest. Despite weak surface high pressure attempting to build in, these mid- level disturbances may result in weak frontal waves to move over the area through the middle of the week. These weak systems look to be mostly deprived of moisture so there doesn`t appear to be much in the way of chances for precipitation. The best chance will be during the day and afternoon on Wednesday as cooler air aloft may provide for some instability showers as a weak frontal system pushes through. Best chance to see any sort of precipitation would be areas to the north but capped PoPs at slight chance. The latest models appear to have shifted their thinking for mid-to- late week. Rather than developing a ridge, many keep the trough lingering with a few developing zonal flow in the mid/upper-levels. Have trended temperatures down in response to this change, but decided not to go with the NBM`s solution as it is 10-15 degrees colder than the previous forecast. Its possible temperatures may be lowered further from the current forecast, should model solutions hold firm in this new solution. Another frontal system `may` impact the area late Friday or into the weekend bringing rain and/or snow to the area. Kept POPs at low-end chance for now as the latest guidance does not agree on the track with this system. The 12Z ICON and GFS show direct impacts to the area, the 12Z GDPS shows the low tracking too far south and the 12Z ECMWF does not even have the low materializing Friday into the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure offshore will continue to give way to a cold front approaching form the Great Lakes. The front passes through the area Sunday morning, with a lee trough setting up behind it. Mainly VFR. Brief period of MVFR possible with scattered showers in the morning from 09-14Z. SW-S winds this afternoon at around 10 kt with local seabreeze enhancements expected mid to late afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt may occur overnight ahead of the approaching cold front. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Seabreeze enhanced wind late this afternoon may get up to 20 kt at KJFK. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday Afternoon: W winds 15G20-30kt in the afternoon, then diminishing at night. Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming WNW in the evening Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds 15G20-25kt. Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain inland, possibly mixed with snow. W winds 10-15G20kt. Thursday: VFR. WNW winds 10-15G20-25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds increase out ahead of an approaching frontal system with a low level jet developing, mainly after midnight. SCA gusts expected over the ocean waters and the south shore bays and SCA issued starting 2 am Sunday morning. Isolated gusts to SCA level is possible over the eastern sound and Peconic and Gardiner`s Bays, but did not issue SCA here due to how marginal the winds were. Winds diminish mid Sunday morning onward, with south shore bays dropping below 25 kt by late morning, the western ocean zone by early afternoon, and the other 2 ocean zones just before midnight as waves linger above 5 ft over those zones. Waves on the ocean will top out 5 to 7 ft during the time frame the SCAs are in effect. Thereafter, winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria through rest of Sunday night. Winds and seas will be below advisory levels Monday until TUesday morning. SCA conditions may return with 25 kt gusts on ocean waters early Tuesday morning, subsiding Tuesday night, with gusts close to returning to SCA levels on most waters on Thursday. Waves may also reach close to 5 feet on Tuesday on ocean waters.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected tonight through next weekend.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350- 353. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/BR NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...BR AVIATION...DW MARINE...JP/BR HYDROLOGY...JP/BR

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