Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 221026 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 626 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WORKS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH MOST RECENT UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL CONDITIONS. SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST TODAY...PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN PA THIS MORNING. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. A WEAK SLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP TROUGH THE DAY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN FOR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND WORK NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO THE SOUTH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS EAST TODAY... SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK PRECEDING THE FRONT THIS AFT...WITH FRONTAL FORCING BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE... MAINLY ALOFT...WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. DRY LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS LATE THIS AFT...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE OR STRONG CONVECTION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THEN LOWERING AND THICKENING THIS AFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 WEST OF NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ BY 8 PM...AND FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT. THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY AFT. RIGHT NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE. PREFERRED COLDER NAM MOS WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW AIDING STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING EAST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND ARRIVING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVERHEAD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND 30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. FOR ALL TERMINALS...START TIME OF -SHRA COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF. FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KISP/KBDR/KGON...LOW CHANCE OF TSTM ACCOMPANYING SHRA. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. CONFIDENCE LOWERS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MIGHT NOT OCCUR...RESULTING IN WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 220 MAGNETIC FROM 18Z-21Z. IF SEA BREEZE OCCURS...IT MIGHT NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL 19Z OR 20Z. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF...OR POSSIBLY NOT PASSING THROUGH AT ALL. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE PASSES THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO AROUND 180 MAGNETIC. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PASS THROUGH AS INDICATED AT 16Z...RESULTING IN WINDS PREVAILING CLOSER TO 200 MAGNETIC. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO 3-5SM VSBYS MIGHT NOT OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUE NIGHT...VFR. NW G20-25KT. .WED...VFR. NW G30-35KT. .THU...VFR. NW G30KT. .FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR. .SAT...MOSTLY VFR...CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
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&& .MARINE... SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK WED...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY AFT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. GALES COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS WED AFT AND NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... LOWERING RH VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ELEVATE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT DO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS. && .HYDROLOGY... AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JC MARINE...BC/DW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BC/DW

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