Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251949 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 349 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds across the area tonight into Wednesday and then offshore late in the day. A frontal system moves through the area Thursday into Thursday night, with low pressure passing to the south on Friday. Another low will pass to the south on Saturday while high pressure builds from the north across the area. High pressure continues to build into the area through early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A relatively tranquil period is on tap through Wednesday night as an upper trough moves offshore tonight and short wave ridging builds in from the west. High res models are indicating a low chance of showers across western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ early this evening. Latest radar supports this with weak returns across these locations. This should be short lived though as the airmass will stabilize due to the loss of daytime heating. At the surface, high pressure builds in from the NW tonight with a continued light N/NE flow. Skies will also gradually clear during this time with a strong mid level subsidence inversion. Conditions will be dry with dew points in the 50s and unseasonably cool temperatures. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. There remains a high risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches through this evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Quiet during this period with high pressure moving across the area in the morning and then offshore in the afternoon/early evening hours. Temperatures will be below seasonable with low humidity. NE winds Wednesday morning veer around to the SE as the high moves offshore. Clouds will increase late Wednesday night as a warm front approaches from the SW and low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase through late week as a potent short wave approaches the area. Humidity will continue to increase as well through the day on Thursday amidst warm/moist advection in southerly flow ahead of the developing low pressure system. Both high and low temperatures will be closer to normal. By Friday, confidence is low on the exact track of the low pressure system with models currently trending southward with the axis of heaviest rainfall. The exact track has implications on temperature/wind/dew point forecasts, etc, though with the idea that the track will be somewhat south compared to previous runs, have trended a little cooler with the high temperature forecast as north-northeasterly flow advects colder air into the area. This system will need to be monitored for the potential for heavy rainfall (see hydrology section for more information). For the weekend into early next week, any lingering chance of precipitation Saturday morning will quickly diminish as high pressure builds southward, bringing lower humidity and more seasonable temperature values.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure builds over the terminals through much of the TAF period, shifting offshore Wednesday night. MVFR cigs lift into VFR range this evening. VFR cigs near 3.5-4 kft linger during much of tonight. VFR continues into Wednesday while clouds become more scattered in coverage. Winds ENE to NE 10 kt or less for most terminals, becoming more SE Wednesday afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: End time of MVFR in TAF could be 1-3 hours off. KLGA TAF Comments: MVFR cigs possible into early this evening. KEWR TAF Comments: End time of MVFR in TAF could be 1-3 hours off. KTEB TAF Comments: End time of MVFR in TAF could be 1-3 hours off. KHPN TAF Comments: End time of MVFR in TAF could be 2-4 hours off. KISP TAF Comments: End time of MVFR in TAF could be 1-3 hours off. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday afternoon-Wednesday night...VFR. SE winds near 5-10 kt. .Thursday...MVFR possible, with chance of showers and possibly a tstm. .Thursday night-Friday...MVFR or lower possible, with showers and possibly a tstm. .Friday night...MVFR or lower possible, with a chance of showers and possibly a tstm. .Saturday-Sunday...VFR. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt early Saturday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Tranquil conditions are on tap through Wednesday night as high pressure builds across the waters through tomorrow and then east tomorrow night. Winds and seas may gradually build to SCA levels late week into the weekend as a series of low pressure centers move to the south of the waters, strengthening north- northeasterly flow. Confidence in wave heights this weekend remains low at the moment. Seas and any remaining swells should gradually subside into next week as high pressure builds into the area.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Heavy rainfall is possible Thursday night into Friday, with a low chance for urban and poor drainage flooding.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical high tides continue to run high, especially during the high tide cycle at night. Along the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens, less than a foot departure is needed to reach minor flooding thresholds. Departures there should run 1 to 1 1/2 feet above normal. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for these areas for tonight`s high tide cycle, with a coastal flood statement for locations adjacent to Lower New York Harbor for localized minor coastal flooding. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NYZ178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...MD AVIATION...JM MARINE...MD/DW HYDROLOGY...MD/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW

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