Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 252008 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 408 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN NYC AND AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. PRECIP IS LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TONIGHT...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME RIGHT RAIN PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH Y DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SFC DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S...CAN EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP...AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVE COLDER OCEAN WATERS. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE FOG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW A MILE. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE. COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT. BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH CAA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THRU THU. -RA SPREADING NEWD FROM ERN PA AT 1730Z. THIS IS PROGGED TO REACH THE METRO AFT 19Z. VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY TO KDCA...SO KEPT THE TAFS VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBY THIS AFTN. ALL DATA SUGGEST CIGS AND VSBY LWR SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE 23-02Z TIME PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TNGT AND THRU 18Z THU. TAFS INDICATE THIS IFR GENERALLY AT 0Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS...WITH A SLOWER TREND THE MORE FAVORED DIRECTION ATTM. SLY COMPONENT FLOW INTO THIS EVE...THEN VRB DIRECTION INVOF THE WARM FRONT TNGT AND INTO THU MRNG. SSW FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS THU AFTN BASED ON THE CURRENT FRONTAL FCST. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 21. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP THRU MVFR AFT 22. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .REST OF THU...IFR OR LWR WITH SSW FLOW. .THU NGT...CDFNT PASSES OVERNIGHT. IFR OR LWR THEN COND IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BECOMING NW. .FRI...VFR WITH NW FLOW. .SAT...CHC MVFR WITH SHSN. NNW FLOW. .SUN...VFR WITH LGT AND VRB WINDS. .MON...MAINLY VFR WITH S/SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
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&& .MARINE...
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WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDS ON THE SS BAYS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY. THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ345.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JMC MARINE...MPS/MET HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET

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