Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271824 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 224 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure weakens across the region through tonight as a cold front well to the west slowly approaches. The cold front nears the region Tuesday, and moves across Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Weak mid and low level forcing has resulted in clouds developing across eastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island. In addition, in an increasingly low level southerly flow stratus has begun to develop. A weak surface trough was across eastern New York state into northeastern Pennsylvania with a line of scattered showers associated with the trough. Will continue with the chance and slight chance pops for this afternoon. The airmass will begin to become more humid as dew points rise through the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to 20 mph at the coast. There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains weak, so not expecting any organization. Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the cooler nearshore waters. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before moving east. This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend. At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening, with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend. As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity. Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature. Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather returning next weekend. Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to drift east. A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold front will approach on Tuesday. * Mainly VFR to start afternoon. Initial MVFR cigs at KISP should scatter by 20Z as dense mid level clouds move east and daytime heating/mixing resume. * Still expect increasing S flow, except SSE at KEWR/KTEB. Gusts could peak around 30 kt at KJFK, 25 kt at KLGA/KISP, and 15-18 kt most elsewhere. * Low clouds likely to move in quickly this evening at coastal terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight. MVFR cigs expected north/west of there overnight except for KSWF, but timing north/west is uncertain, since those areas will be shielded from direct marine influence initially in southerly flow. * Cigs should lift to MVFR by about 14Z-15Z. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 30 kt this afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still a little uncertain. KLGA TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 25 kt this afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur later than forecast. KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT this afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur later than forecast. KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT this afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur later than forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still a little uncertain. KISP TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 25 kt this afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still a little uncertain. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in showers/tstms and/or low clouds/fog. .Wednesday...MVFR or IFR or lower conditions possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/tstms. .Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR. .Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms. .Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Winds and seas forecast on track. No changes at this time. As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels, mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the waters. A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to remain below small craft advisory thresholds. && .HYDROLOGY... Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday. This could result in minor nuisance flooding. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW/PW NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...MET/DW/PW HYDROLOGY...DW/PW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.