Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 211801 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 201 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN CROSSES THE TRI- STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN IMPACTS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED...MITIGATING FURTHER WARMTH ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY ALREADY ACHIEVED HERE. MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR INTERIOR. DAYTIME MIXING CONVEYED BY BUFKIT TO BE LIMITED TO NEAR TO JUST BELOW 950MB WITH HIGHER MIXING TO NEAR 925-900 MB ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OVERALL...SPLIT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND QUASI ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL REGION. A SLIGHT RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS IS KEEPING SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE CUTOFF WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH THIS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE OPTIMAL AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 ECE AND 1/3 MET...FAVORING COLDER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. 700-500 HPA LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SURFACE-850 HPA COLD FRONT. GFS APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH HOW FAST FRONT AND PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH...SO USED A NON-GFS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH OUT...WITH MAINLY A SCT-BKN MID DECK ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO WESTERN ZONES EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF NE NJ AND MAINLY W PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY - NAM HAS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE TOTAL TOTALS AT KSWF GET TO 51 - SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THOSE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. MARINE INFLUENCE FARTHER EAST SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER FROM FORMING FARTHER EAST...AND SHOULD PROMOTE THE RAPID WEAKENING OF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH WERE TO MOVE IN FROM THE W. NOTING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7000 FT...LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION BELOW 1000 M...AND 500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -16 TO -18C WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT SOME SMALL TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 975-925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS IN COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND INLAND SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING OR GETTING JUST ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE MARK.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODELS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EVENING AND WILL BE CLEAR OF EASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. GFS IS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS AND HAS PRECIP ENDING PRETTY MUCH FROM 00-06Z...BUT THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF/CMC ARE A BIT SLOWER AND ENDS PRECIP A BUT LATER. EITHER WAY...WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY...AND WILL TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT. WITH UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SKIES CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY...AND THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...RESULTING IN A STRONG NW FLOW OF 20-30 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST...AND THEN WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. GUSTY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. THE HIGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THAT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FROM MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG NW FLOW WILL USHER CAA INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH DAYS. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPS WARM BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN IN THE 40S AT NIGHT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KJFK FROM 180 DEGS AT 13 KT BY 20Z. SSW WINDS OF 5 KT OR LESS ARE FORECAST SUNSET-SUNRISE. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR STRATUS AFT 06Z TONIGHT AT KGON. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TO 13Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUE AFT-TUE NIGHT...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. .WED-THU NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G25-30KT. .FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS FRI AFTN - SAT MORNING.
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&& .MARINE...
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FOR THIS AFTERNOON...STILL NO REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE TO MARINE FORECAST WITH FORECAST STAYING ON TRACK. A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT OR LESS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15 KT OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS TO 5 FT. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. WINDS RAMP UP TO SCA LEVELS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON EASTERN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION - WIDESPREAD 1/2 INCH OR MORE - IS LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...MALOIT/JM LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...GC MARINE...MALOIT/JM/MPS HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS

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