Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251753 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 153 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak low pressure troughs forming over land each day will move offshore each night through Tuesday night, while strong high pressure remains well to the southwest. The high will eventually build in on Wednesday. A warm front will approach on Thursday and move through at night. A cold front approaching from the north on Friday will stall nearby into the weekend, with unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A shortwave passes north of the region today. At the surface, weak trough develops this afternoon, with SW or S flow ahead of it, and westerly flow behind it. Plenty sunshine this morning will give way to a few afternoon clouds, with generally dry conditions. Higher resolution models continue to indicate isolated shower activity this afternoon. Some isolated showers have started to develop across eastern PA, so will include some isolated showers in the forecast for the afternoon, mainly across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. Temperatures look quite seasonable, and a few degrees lower than yesterday. Readings in the 80s expected across the region, with locations east of the trough slightly cooler due to onshore winds this afternoon. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Suffolk ocean beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Sfc trough moves east tonight, with winds veering to the west/NW. Yet another weak sfc trough develops over the area Monday. Aloft, heights fall to the west of the area as next shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region. Any shower weakens this evening, with dry conditions anticipated tonight. On Monday, more of the same, with morning sunshine giving way to a few afternoon clouds. Cannot rule out an isolated shower interior Monday. Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast tonight and Monday, with lower humidity levels. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Looks fairly dry with comfortable humidity and slightly below normal temperatures through mid week. A warm front approaches on Thursday as low pressure passes across southern Canada. In its wake, a cold front sags south into NY State on Friday. The front becomes stationary near the region into the weekend - which appears will be "unsettled." Upper trough axis approaches Tuesday, passing Tuesday night. Perhaps a tad more instability Tuesday and pseudo cold FROPA could trigger a shower. Wednesday is dry and then warm advection starts in on Thursday. Frontal boundary in the region, or just north, on Friday and have POPs in for TSRA. Looks to remain unsettled through the holiday weekend at this time. Temps come back to near seasonable on Thursday and then go above Friday into the weekend. No heat issues foreseen though. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A weak low pressure trough will move through late this afternoon into this evening. High pressure to the south will otherwise be in control. Line of showers has developed over NW NJ and the lower Hudson Valley, and for the most part should bypass the NYC metros as far as direct impact, though we will have to watch for development of an associated gust front that would shift winds at KTEB/KEWR and possibly KLGA briefly out of the NW at 10-15 kt from about 19Z-21Z. KHPN looks to have direct impact with MVFR vsby and G25kt 19Z-20Z, possibly KBDR as well from 20Z-22Z. S-SW coastal sea breezes at or just over 10 kt should continue until close to sunset at KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. Otherwise, gusty SW winds should diminish this evening, then winds become light WNW overnight, and SW close to 10 kt by Mon afternoon, with coastal sea breeze development by 15Z-16Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday afternoon ...Mainly VFR. Coastal sea breezes. Slight chance of a late day shower/tstm NW of NYC metros. .Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a late day shower/tstm. .Wednesday...VFR. .Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a late day shower/tstm mainly north of the NYC metros and Long Island. .Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a late day shower/tstm at KSWF.
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&& .MARINE... Quiet through Thursday morning. Ocean seas will likely build to SCA criteria late Thursday and continue as such into Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through at least the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are running very high, especially during the nighttime high tide cycles. Will need to watch high tide cycle tonight for localized minor coastal flooding. Main area to watch would be across the Nassau south shore bays, where water levels should briefly touch or barely exceed minor thresholds. && .EQUIPMENT... Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) are not available. Observations from KHPN (White Plains NY) and KHVN (New Haven CT) are being disseminated through backup methods. All is due to an FAA communication line outage. Return to service time is unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...Tongue/PW AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...BC/PW HYDROLOGY...PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

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