Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 262132 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 432 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THRU TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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997 LOW ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE DELMARVA AT 4 PM PER MSAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE WRN ATLC. THE RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED BANDING OVER LI...WITH DEVELOPING PCPN S OF LI FLOWING NWD. THE END RESULT IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THRU THE EARLY EVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. SNOWFALL RATES WILL PICK UP FROM AROUND 1 INCH PER HR INTO THE 2-4 INCH PER HR RANGE BY 10PM OR SO. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. THE FAVORED NAM AND ECMWF SOLNS DROP THE LOW INTO THE 970S OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. BASED THIS ON THE NAM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE PEAK OF THE STORM. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD AT 6AM...WITH HVY SNOW...DAMAGING WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXTREME NWRN ZONES SUCH AS ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL WRT WINDS. THE LOW ESSENTIALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE S OF CAPE COD DURING THE DAY...THEN DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TUE NGT BRINGING AND END TO THE STORM. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STORM SETS UP...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE N...CUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER PCPN WHERE THIS OCCURS. W OF THIS AREA WILL BE WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM PLACING THIS BAND OVER THE CITY. THE SNOWFALL FCST REMAINS IN THE 20-30 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS. A LITTLE LESS FCST ACROSS NWRN ZONES...BUT THE LATEST NAM SUGGESTS EVEN OVER 2 FT INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE MODEL PRODUCES 2.7 INCH LIQUID OVER THE BRONX...SO THERE IS DEFINITE 3 FT POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WRT TEMPS...THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE PASSAGE OF A CSTL FRONT ON LI. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MET BRINGS TEMPS UP TO 41 DEGREES AT KFOK TNGT. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC ATTM WITH SUSTAINED 30KT NLY WINDS IN THE SAME GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS BLW GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERAL H5 PATTERN OF RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER HUDSON BAY LATE THIS WEEK WITH COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY TIME PERIODS OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO PCPN ARE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND MON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THU NIGHT/FRI ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS FOR MON...THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE H5 FLOW COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IS TRACKING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EC BEING FLATTER DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKS IT EWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WED NIGHT DUE TO A DEEP SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OHD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AMBIENT AIR TEMPS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY AND TEENS AT NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WED NIGHT WHEN THEY MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND THU/FRI WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWER TO MID 30S RESPECTIVELY.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT EXPECTED FROM LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ** LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM S TO N THRU 00Z. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KGON BY LATE THIS EVENING. 1-3" OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 00Z...THEN 2-4 INCH AN HOUR RATES DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT. NE WINDS STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS 25-30KT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK TO THE NNE LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25-40KT...LOWEST FAR W TERMINALS AND STRONGEST FAR E TERMINALS. MODERATE ICING IS LIKELY BELOW FL180. MODERATE TURBULENCE BETWEEN SFC-FL390 WITH LOCAL SEVERE POSSIBLE FL200-310. REFER TO ZNY MIS AND SIGMET VICTOR FOR MORE INFORMATION. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. NE-N WINDS G35-50 KT. .LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. .THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN. .FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN THE AFTN. .SAT...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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970S LOW WILL PRODUCE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE COND TNGT AND TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TUE NGT. CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVSY ON WED AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS RETURN FRI INTO SAT AS A CLIPPER LOW INTENSIFIES OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE BLIZZARD. ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LONG ISLAND AND WESTERN NY COAST WITHIN THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. FOR THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NY HARBOR...AND THE CT COASTS. THE NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SURGE IS IN HOW QUICKLY WINDS TURN FROM THE NE TO N. AN EARLIER VEERING OF WINDS TO THE N AHEAD OF HIGH TIDE TYPICALLY REDUCES SURGE IN OUR REGION. THE MOST LIKELY SURGE FOR COASTAL AREAS IS: - WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND (NY ZONES)...3 TO 4 FT OF SURGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4 1/2 FT. - LONG ISLAND SOUND CT COAST...2 TO 2 1/2 FT OF SURGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 FT. - THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND WHERE 3 TO 4 FT OF SURGE IS POSSIBLE AS WATER GETS PILED UP AROUND THE FORKS. - NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...2 TO 3 FT OF SURGE. BEACH EROSION AND WASHOVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OCEAN FACING BARRIER BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND DUE TO 7 TO 12 FT WAVES AND THE HIGH STORM TIDE. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED. HIGH WAVES AND HIGH STORM TIDE WILL ALSO CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND ALONG THE TWIN FORKS. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED. && .CLIMATE... THIS BLIZZARD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE LARGEST SINGLE- STORM SNOWFALL IN NYC HISTORY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN SNOWFALLS FOR THE CITY... AMOUNT DATES 26.9 FEB 11-12 2006 25.8 DEC 26-27 1947 21.0 MAR 12-13 1888 20.9 FEB 25-26 2010 20.2 JAN 7-8 1996 20.0 DEC 26-27 2010 19.8 FEB 16-17 2003 19.0 JAN 26-27 2011 18.1 JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941 18.0 DEC 26 1872 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ005>012. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ009>012. NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ079- 081. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-080-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ072-074. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071- 073-078-176-177. NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-353- 355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ335-338. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/24 NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...MMD MARINE...JMC/24 HYDROLOGY...JMC/24 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW CLIMATE...

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