Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251006 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 606 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES. UPR LOW OVER NRN ME/ERN CANADA WILL DRIFT TO JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE NC COAST AND OUT TO SEA. THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT REGION...AND DESPITE THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED THE DRY FCST FOR TODAY. SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TNGT...BUT INSTABILITY IS ALSO REDUCED WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES HOWEVER DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME WEAK MID LVL LIFT SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A TRIGGER. KEPT POPS LOW...BUT WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD CLOSE TO GMOS25.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... COOLING BL SUN NGT SO PCPN CHCS DIMINISH. STRONGER UPR SUPPORT ON MON...SO PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN SUN. CHANGED WORDING TO SCT...WITH POPS AROUND 40 REASONABLE ATTM. CHCS AGAIN WANE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A BETTER CHC AT SHWRS HANGING IN PAST DARK WITH THE SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU. ANOTHER CHC FOR SOME ISOLD SHWRS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY CT AND PERHAPS LI...WITH THE H5 LOW OVER 400 MILES E OF MONTAUK. DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE UPR FORCING IS WEAK TO NON BY TUE NGT...SO A DRY FCST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE NERN CONUS ON WED. DRY WX EXPECTED AS A RESULT. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 70 ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON. WITH WEAK FLOW...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY LIMIT TEMPS ON LI AND CT. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPR LOW THRU IN THE THU-FRI PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS UPR LEVEL SYS TO THE NC COAST AND SPAWNS A 980S LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY TRACK TO THE ENE AND THEREFORE NOT IMPACT THE CWA. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE LOW CHCS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 FOR THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED... .SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. .MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS. .TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WORKS SLOWLY EAST. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE NW GUSTS COME CLOSE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND AGAIN ON TUE AS A NLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. && .FIRE WEATHER... MIN RH WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TODAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FCST TO BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS BLW RED FLAG CRITERIA. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25 NEWARK NJ...34/1936......35 BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....33 CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36 LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38 KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36 ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31 *AND PREVIOUS YEARS && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070- 078>081. NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004- 103>105-107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...DW MARINE...DW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JMC CLIMATE...

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