Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 011040 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 640 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ADDED PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG UNTIL 13Z/9 AM...MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF NYC INCLUDING INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT...GENERALLY RESTRICTING VSBYS 3-5 MILES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM. FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS. THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE LONG TERM. FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN. WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING. VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF AROUND DAYBREAK. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. .OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. .THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE. .FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. && .HYDROLOGY... IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT NEAR TERM...GC/MALOIT SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...MPS MARINE...GC/MALOIT HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT

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