Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KOKX 211752
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
152 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016
Showers today as a cold front gradually approaches from the west
and then moves through late tonight. Deepening low pressure will
track across New England into Quebec this weekend bringing windy
conditions to the Tri-State. A cold front will pass through on
Monday, followed by building high pressure through the middle of
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --The mesoscale wind convergence boundary off the New Jersey
coastline has slightly weakened and also shifted east just a bit.
As a result, a line of rain showers continues to impact a corridor
from NYC/Nassau county northward into the eastern Lower Hudson
valley and Western CT. Otherwise, additional showers are
developing east and should move across Long Island and
Connecticut over the next few hours.
By evening....PCPN comes back from the west as the cold front
finally gets here.
Have lowered temperatures just a degree or two across parts of the
area. still looking at max temperatures in the lower and middle
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Winds, cool temps, clouds and light showers make for a real fall
like day on Saturday. CAA keeps temps steady of falling slightly
thought the day.
Showers are scattered and light...mainly in the morning. Skies
become partly sunny as we downslope of the Appalachians in the
AFTN. POPs go from 50 down to 30 through the day.
Main story is the wind which will gust to 40 mph in the afternoon (just
below advisory level of 45+. Some airports like JFK is have
sustain wind speeds into the lower 30s - which is technically
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Global models remain very similar with the evolution of the system
this weekend as a cutoff low embedded in a negatively tilted upper
trough lifts northward across New England and into eastern Canada.
Showers tapper off from south to north Saturday night as moisture
and forcing lift northward with the low. Gusty west winds up to
35 mph will continue through much of Sunday with around a 980 mb
low across eastern Canada.
A clipper type system will be racing towards the forecast area
Sunday night into Monday morning. This will allow winds to back
briefly to the west-southwest. The cold frontal passage looks to
be early enough in the day to not allow much of a warmup, so high
temperatures are similar to Sunday, which is close to or slightly
The airmass that builds in for the Tuesday and Wednesday time period
looks to be around 10 degrees below average, and will have the
potential to produce a freeze across much if not all of the
interior, possibly getting into some of the coastal zones.
A frontal system of Pacific origin approaches from the Great Lakes
on Thursday. There are magnitude issues with how deep the low is
between the 00Z GFS and ECMWF, but overall the timing with this
system is remarkably close for this far out in time.
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Mesoscale wind convergence boundary along the immediate coastline
has weakened but is producing SHRA across NYC terminals. Meanwhile...
a cold front will approach from the west and a wave of low
pressure will approach from the south. The cold front crosses
tonight after 06z.
S-SE winds become light and variable this evening.
Re-development of IFR conditions likely for coastal terminals
with low potential for LIFR or lower conds in advection
fog/stratus off the ocean later this afternoon and evening. Overnight
conditions likely deterioration to widespread LIFR or lower
After 08z: Improvement to MVFR conditions with NW winds G30-35KT
developing in wake of cold frontal passage.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: IFR cigs likely. Low confidence on
visibility. Later this afternoon...low potential for LIFR or
lower conds in advection fog/stratus off the ocean this afternoon.
KLGA TAF Comments: IFR cigs likely. Low confidence on
KEWR TAF Comments: CIG amendments likely.
KTEB TAF Comments: CIG amendments likely.
KHPN TAF Comments: CIG amendments likely.
KISP TAF Comments: Any VFR may be temporary. This afternoon...low
potential for LIFR or lower conds in advection fog/stratus off the
.Outlook for 18Z Saturday through Wednesday...
.Saturday-Sunday...VFR. WNW-NW winds G25-35KT likely.
.Sunday Night-Tuesday...VFR with NW winds g20-25KT possible.
Isolated shower possible Sunday Night into Mon Morning.
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Fairly tranquil today. Seas increase on the Ocean tonight.
Main even is prolonged Gales this weekend as low pressure deepens
to our north.
Gales are likely to continue across the waters on Sunday, especially
across the ocean waters. Wind gusts may briefly drop below 25 kt
Sunday night before a cold frontal passage on Monday brings a
return to SCA levels through Tuesday.
Showers today and tonight. Totals should average 1/4 - 1/2". No
hydrologic problems are expected.
Light PCPN is expect on Saturday.
Mainly dry weather is expected thereafter.
More isolated minor coastal flooding with this afternoon`s high
tide cycles. Generally 1-2 ft departures are needed for minor
A statement will be issued.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ330-
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 PM this evening
to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.