Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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933 FXUS61 KOKX 291359 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 959 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over southern Quebec will maintain a moist northeast flow off the Atlantic Ocean into the weekend as low pressure spins over the Ohio Valley. The unsettled weather will continue Monday and Tuesday, then high pressure builds by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast on track this morning with just some minor adjustments to reflect latest observations. The tri-state will remain in a blocking pattern as a cutoff low will meander over the Mid- west today and high pressure at the surface over southern Quebec continues to build into the region. Because of the subsidence from this high, only a slight chance of light rain is possible over western portions of the CWA today, as much of the rain moving north from New Jersey is dissipating. However, there will be plenty of clouds and occasional drizzle as a the same high pressure brings in a cool, moist airmass from the Atlantic. Thanks in large part to the clouds, temperatures will only reach the middle 60s for much of the area. There is a high Risk of rip current development at Atlantic ocean beaches TOday as strong longshore currents continue. The last scheduled surf zone forecast for this beach season is this Friday,September 30 && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Steadier rain moves in tonight as a stalled frontal boundary well south of the region treks slowly northward. The best chances for rain will be late tonight as over-running increases ahead of the front. There are some spatial differences in model solutions as to the axis of heavier precipitation. Thinking is that the heavier rain will occur over southern sections as those areas will be closer to the approaching frontal boundary. With any blocking pattern comes persistence, thus we can expect with low clouds and light precipitation to continue into Friday. There will be small diurnal range in temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... locked upper level pattern remains in place to start the long term period. A cut off low over the Ohio Valley remains in place through the weekend, due to a large western Atlantic ridge. The ridge finally weakens and shifts south early next week allowing the upper low to finally start moving late Sunday night into Monday. In terms of weather for our region, expect unsettled weather through the weekend and into next week, with periods of rain or drizzle. The weather may become more showery in nature for the second half of the weekend. Some elevated weak instability could result in some thunder at times as well. High pressure starts to build into the region Tuesday or Wednesday. Depending on how quickly the drier air can work in, we could see the precipitation come to an end on Tuesday. For now, with some uncertainty, will keep at least some chance pops in on Tuesday. Expect drier weather on Wednesday. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly below normal, due to the clouds, rain and easterly flow. Saturday night lows however remains slightly above normal. Temperatures Sunday through the middle of next week will see temperatures near normal. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Terminal area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low pressure to the southwest into Friday. Most likely MVFR at City/Long Island terminals through the TAF period, with a low chance of a brief period of VFR this afternoon. KHPN should remain VFR until overnight, CT Terminals should improve from MVFR to VFR this afternoon, then return to MVFR overnight. Bulk of rain should hold off until the overnight hours, with some spotty drizzle possible before then. NE winds through the TAF period, gusty mainly at coastal terminals to 20-30kt. Gusts mainly occasional inland. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Very low chance of VFR this afternoon. Peak gusts could be 5kt or so higher than those in TAFs. KLGA TAF Comments: Very low chance of VFR this afternoon. Peak gusts could be 5kt or so higher than those in TAFs. KEWR TAF Comments: Low chance of VFR this afternoon. Occasional gusts to 20-25kt possible. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Low chance of VFR this afternoon. Occasional gusts to 20-25kt possible. KHPN TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR ceilings through 16z. Occasional gusts 20-25kt through 16z. KISP TAF Comments: Very low chance of VFR this afternoon. Peak gusts could be 5kt or so higher than those in TAFs. .Outlook for 12Z Friday through Monday... .Friday-Saturday Night...IFR/MVFR in rain. NE winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt through Friday Night. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt Saturday-Saturday Night. .Sunday-Monday...VFR. MVFR possible with showers Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... Northeast winds will increase somewhat this morning. Gale conditions are expected over the ocean waters, while SCA is expected elsewhere. Seas build to around 5 ft on the open portions of the Sound and up to 12 ft on the ocean through Friday. Rough conditions will continue through at least Saturday night. Conditions will then slowly improve as the gradient weakens. && .HYDROLOGY... The more significant rainfall is expect to not arrive until late Thursday night and continue into the weekend. Average rainfall totals will range between 0.75" for northwest portions of the region, to 1.5" for southeastern section. The prolonged nature of the rain event should preclude any hydrologic issues. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A persistent moderate northeast flow through the week will elevate water levels with an increase in astronomical high tides. Water levels across the Atlantic Ocean facing south shore bays in Nassau and Queens should reach minor tidal flooding benchmarks with this morning`s high tide cycles. Minor coastal flooding is expected once again tonight for the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens. The region for minor flooding will likely expand for Friday`s high tides. Locally moderate coastal flooding is possible, mainly across Nassau, such as Freeport, and mainly for Friday`s high tide. However, this does not as of yet look to be widespread enough for a warning. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NYZ178- 179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JP NEAR TERM...BC/JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...Maloit/JC MARINE...BC/JP HYDROLOGY...BC/JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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