Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241106 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 706 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered just south of the area through Thursday. A weakening front will approach Thursday night into Friday, and move across Friday night. High pressure will follow for the weekend. A cold front will slowly move through on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Forecast is on track. The surface high just to the south will continue to dominate, with mainly clear skies, just some thin cirrus drifting across from the NW from time to time. Light W to WNW flow early should back southerly this afternoon, with sea breeze enhancement along the coast, then veer SW and diminish tonight as the sea breeze circulation weakens. Expect high temps today to be a little warmer than the warmest MOS guidance, with mid and upper 80s most places, and lower 80s along the south shore of Long Island and SE CT. Lows tonight as the air mass modifies are a little warmer than GFS MOS guidance in most spots, with lower 70s invof NYC, 60s most elsewhere, and upper 50s in the Long Island Pine Barrens and some interior spots well NW of NYC. There will be moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As a weak upper trough approaches, should see mid sct-bkn mid level clouds move in fairly quickly Thu morning mainly from NYC north/west. Low levels remain fairly dry during this time and instability looks confined to the boundary layer, so do not expect much if any in the way of precip in these areas, maybe slight chance of a late day shower especially well inland invof a subtle lee trough developing near Orange County and NW NJ. Skies farther east should remain mostly sunny with sfc ridging holding on through the day. Afternoon sea breezes should be stronger, likely sustained at 15-20 mph along the south shore of Long Island and NYC, which may increase the rip current risk further. High temps should be fairly similar to those forecast for today, with mid/upper 80s most places and lower 80s along south facing shores. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NWP guidance is in good agreement across North America at H5 into Saturday, then differences begin to develop with the progression and amplitude of a northern stream trough tracking through the northern plains in response to downstream ridging. Meanwhile, a strong upper anticyclone over the Tennessee Valley Thu night will drift toward the Mid Atlantic coast by Sat night. At the surface, a weak front will approach Thu night and track across the area on Fri. Low chc PoP during the day Fri at best although a warm nose around 15kft may preclude most tstm development, with mainly sct shower activity expected. The front passes with dry weather for the weekend, but not much relief from the heat. May have multiple days of 90 degree readings, especially in NYC and areas N and W. GFS temps seemed a low on Sat and Sunday, so sided closer to the EC guidance. Not anticipating a heat advy for NYC attm, since Fri appears to be the only day we could reach mid to upper 90 heat indices due to moisture pooling ahead of the frontal boundary. Dewpoints should be around 5 degrees lower on Sat behind the boundary, so heat indices are only expected to be in the lower 90s. Potential is there, just low attm. Will monitor. A cold front slowly approaches Sunday night and Monday, although best mid level forcing passes to the north. Chc PoP across the interior seems plausible on Mon, and kept mention of thunder confined to NW areas based on capped mid levels. This boundary may stall near the area on Tue as the LFQ of an upper level jet streak passes through, possibly triggering additional showers/tstms. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure slowly slides offshore into this evening and remains in control through tonight. VFR through the TAF period. Light westerly or variable winds this morning...becoming S/SW this afternoon. Sea breezes develop in the late morning/early afternoon at coastal terminals. Sea breeze front may have trouble making it completely through KEWR and KTEB...but instead battle an occasionally gusty SW flow and waver in the vicinity of the terminal. Winds become light SW tonight. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: KJFK TAF Comments: Southerly sea breeze development expected between 16 and 18z. KLGA TAF Comments: Southerly sea breeze development expected between 19 and 21z. KEWR TAF Comments: SE sea breeze development possible between 19 and 22z. Wind direction could waver btwn sw and se during this time. Occasional SW gusts to 15 kt possible in the afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: S sea breeze development possible between 19 and 23z. Wind direction could waver btwn sw and s during this time. KHPN TAF Comments: Weak S sea breeze development possible aft 21z. KISP TAF Comments: SSW sea breeze development expected between 17 and 19z. .Outlook for 12Z Thursday through Sunday... .Thursday-Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of afternoon/nighttime showers. Best chances North and West of NYC. S winds gusts 15-25kt possible Thursday aft/eve. .Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with brief MVFR conditions possible. .Friday night-Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... There is still a low to medium chance that ocean seas could reach SCA criteria some time late day Thu night into Fri ahead of an approaching front. There is also suggestion of tropical swell encroaching on the waters early next week, with waves building to at least 4 ft by Sunday. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/24 NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...NV MARINE...Goodman/24 HYDROLOGY...Goodman/24 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.