Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 301802 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 202 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO WARM MUCH MORE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ARE BEING OBSERVED. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND TONIGHT INTO WED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES ACROSS ON WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NW-WARD FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE ON WED... WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN OF OVER AN INCH NEAR AND JUST EAST OF WHERE THIS INTERACTION OCCURS...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 29/12Z ECMWF WERE POINTING TOWARD SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF ARE FARTHER EAST. CLOUDY SKIES AND AND E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG TODAY...THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG ON WED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN WED EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS STRONG UPR LVL SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER AREAS WEST OF NYC BY 06Z...AND THEN EASTERN AREAS BY THURS MORNING. WHILE A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED EVENING...THE TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS TO PUSH IT EAST...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING OUTSIDE THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN SETTING UP THRU THURS NIGHT-FRI WITH SFC HIGH DIPPING SOUTH BETWEEN TWO SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND RIDGING ALOFT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH 00Z MODELS WITH GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED ALL MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING FASTER FOR THE PROGRESSION. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...THE MODELS COULD BE WEAKENING IT TOO QUICKLY AND THUS BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN THROUGH QUICKLY AS WELL. AS SUCH...SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM PRIOR FORECAST UNTIL A GOOD HANDLE OF THE TREND CAN BE MADE. CONFIDENCE EXISTS IT WILL RAIN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING OUT THE TIMING WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DRY WX ON FRIDAY...THEN BEGAN POPS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LVL LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN BY 12Z SAT MORNING AND THEN TAPER POPS OFF WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT AS MAIN FORCING ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY-MONDAY WHILE THE REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING. HAVE DRY WX IN FOR SUN-MON WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN COMING BY MON NIGHT. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN PLACE THRU SAT. A BRIEF BURST OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN A DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE REGION WITH A GENERAL E-NE FLOW DURING TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR FOR WESTERN TERMINALS TO IFR FOR EASTERN TERMINALS AND KHPN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN LATE TONIGHT WITH MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. RAIN ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS AND GENERALLY LIGHT...BECOMES MORE STEADY TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND IFR AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED...MVFR LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST. .THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER IN THE AM. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM. GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY LATE. .SUN...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... INCREASING E-NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FROPA...AS THE WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THU. SCA REMAINS FOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY LATE EVENING...AND TO 4-7 FT ON WED. GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE PSBL WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHC FOR 25 KT GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT...THEN SUNDAY WITH CAA OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WINDS MID WEEK...EXPECTING 4-6 FT SEAS THRU THU BEFORE SUBSIDING WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 FT ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT...MAINLY SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA FRI NIGHT-SAT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...SEARS AVIATION...JM MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS

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