Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 310049 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 849 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front passes tonight. High pressure then builds down from southeastern Canada from Tuesday through Thursday, then retreats to the northeast Thursday night. A cold front approaches from the west on Friday, then moves across the region early this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Updated forecast to lower pops for many areas, but increased them this evening over some of the NW areas as a slow moving cold front and outflow boundaries interact with sufficient SBCAPE to produce showers and scattered thunderstorms. Convection should diminish as the evening progress with the loss of instability. Other concern is the coverage and density of fog. Visibilities have actually improved over the past hour over eastern long island where fog had reduced the visibility to locally as low as a quarter mile. Wouldn`t be surprised to see the visibility reduced again as the evening progresses with fairly light winds, moist low levels, and moisture pooling along the weakening cold front. Might need to eventually need to issue an SPS to address patchy dense fog over the eastern zones at some point this evening. Mos blend for overnight lows with temps in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... It appears that weak surface front stalls and weakens nearby Tuesday. Mid and upper level trough passes to the north across New England during the day. Drier air will filter in from the northwest as high pressure builds from canada. In general, expect dry conditions with sunshine during the day, and partly cloudy to mostly clear skies at night. Daytime highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, per MOS. Lows Tuesday night should range from the 50s across the interior to the mid 60s in and around NYC under better radiational cooling conditions. There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic facing beaches on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure on Wednesday results in a sunny day. With an onshore flow and limited mixing depth, have gone close to superblend for high temps as MET mos looked too warm and MAV mos looked too cool. High pressure shifts farther east on Thursday but should still keep all rain associated with the remnants of Bonnie well to our south. Winds and mixing depth will be similar to Wednesday`s, but maybe a little more in the way of cloud cover. High temp forecast is therefore slightly cooler than Wednesday. A slow-moving cold front then brings low chances of showers to roughly the western half of the cwa. Better overall chances then arrive Friday into Friday night as the front moves through, but pops are capped at chance for now. Timing of the frontal passage is still in question, but kept a slight chance of showers on Saturday. Saturday could however end up being entirely dry across the area. Enough CAPE is progged in the area to mention thunder Friday through Saturday. Friday`s high temps look to be at or a couple degrees below normal, with Saturday being a few degrees higher than normal. Upper troughing over the region begins on Sunday and lasts into Monday. This will help a broad surface low shift into the area during this period. Whether or not a secondary surface low forms and passes nearby is uncertain, but the parent low and associated fronts present chances of rain/showers/thunderstorms during this period. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front will approach late tonight moving across early Tuesday. Mainly VFR for city terminals and to the NW with IFR and below to the east. Until cold front moves through early Tuesday Morning, eastern terminals will likely stay MVFR or below. The duration of IFR and below remains uncertain tonight as well as whether or not this moves farther westward late tonight bringing a return to IFR for city and nearby terminals. Guidance is generally hinting that this will return...but again the extent remains in question. As winds shift to the sw aft midnight climatology indicates improvement at city terminals with IFR or lower conds e...so tried to indicate this idea into the forecast. Showers/tstms have been weakening as they move into the area...so have maintained the vcsh at western terminals this eve. Some showers from remnants of Bonnie may impact KGON and possibly KISP late this eve and overnight. moderate to high confidence in wind forecast. sea breeze develops at the coast tue aftn. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: occasional gusts up to 20 kt through rest of eve push. timing of IFR may be several hours off this eve. KLGA TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on tue. KEWR TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on tue. KTEB TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on tue. KHPN TAF Comments: MVFR to IFR possible this eve. Timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on tue. KISP TAF Comments: End of IFR conds may be +/- 1-2 hours tue morning. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Wednesday through Saturday... .Tuesday Night-Wednesday Night...VFR. .Thursday...Mainly VFR. E winds G15-20kt. .Thursday Night...Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions. .Friday-Saturday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR conditions. && .MARINE...
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Fog over the eastern waters will be dense. Dense fog advisory continues through the entire night. As a weak front approaches and stalls over the waters through Tuesday, expect southerly winds to remain fairly light. Winds turn to the north Tuesday night as high pressure builds. For now, it appears that there will not be a significant enough swell to bring seas to SCA levels through Tuesday night. Sub-sca conditions are expected Wednesday with winds less than 20 kt and ocean seas 3 to 4 ft. An easterly wind increases on Thursday, building seas up to 5 ft on the ocean along with some gusts up to 25 kt possible. Winds then become lighter Thursday night and Friday, however remain onshore. A lingering swell could therefore prolong 5 ft seas into this period. Otherwise, sub-sca conds are likely through Saturday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Widespread significant rainfall is not expected through Tuesday night. A few heavier showers and possible thunderstorms could result in local urban and poor drainage flooding this evening. Thereafter, no widespread significant rainfall is expected through the upcoming weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-340-345- 350. && $$

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