Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 141758 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 158 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A wave of low pressure passes to the south and east of the area today, followed by weak high pressure tonight. A cold front then moves through from west to east Sunday night followed by building high pressure that will remain over the area through late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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There are a few pockets of light rain/drizzle across eastern Long Island, otherwise conditions will continue to dry out with some partial clearing evident on satellite imagery. Its quite possible that much of the area sees at least some peaks of sun this afternoon if not more as temperatures top out around 70. Surface low pressure south and east of Long Island this afternoon passes off to the E and into southern New England by early this evening. Weak high pressure follows with winds becoming light and variable.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... With the loss of diurnal heating and strengthening inversion, expect the redevelopment of patchy drizzle and fog as a warm front approaches the area overnight. Temperatures will remain above climatological normals in warm advection. By late morning or early afternoon on Sunday, the warm front will shift north of the area allowing for deeper mixing and perhaps scattering of clouds, particularly west of NYC. Strengthening southwesterly flow will allow high temperatures to rise to near 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Although overnight temperatures will initially start out above normal, a cold front will move through from west to east allowing a sharp decrease in temperatures, though stronger winds will likely hinder temperatures from lowering to climatological values despite the cooler and drier air mass. Rain chances will lag behind the actual front associated more with a strong upper vorticity maximum. At the moment, the mid to upper levels are expected to remain somewhat dry, which will likely prevent heavier rainfall from developing. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure builds in for the remainder of the week, with gusty winds possible on Monday in strong cold advection following the frontal passage. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal Monday into Tuesday before slowly rebounding through the week as the high pressure center shifts offshore, allowing a return to warm advection in southwesterly flow. Otherwise, conditions will remain dry. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A weak wave of low pressure passes east of the region this afternoon, then moves northeast this evening. A cold front approaches late Sunday. MVFR/IFR conditions in stratus. Some leftover rain and drizzle remain for the far eastern terminals. There may be a brief period of VFR conditions this afternoon for NYC/NJ terminals late this afternoon. Any improvement may only occur for a few hours, then MVFR/IFR conditions in stratus and fog return once again tonight. Amendments may be needed this afternoon for timing of flight categories. Winds will remain light and variable through the afternoon and first part of tonight. Winds then become southerly, remaining light through the early morning, then gradually increase during the late morning and afternoon hours. Gusts into the 20 kt range is likely for the NYC terminals by Sunday afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday afternoon and Sunday Night...Improving to VFR, then chance of showers at night with MVFR conditions. SW winds G25KT in afternoon and evening...shifting to NW Sun Night. .Monday...Chc early AM showers and MVFR/IFR, becoming VFR. NW winds G20-25KT. .Tuesday-Thursday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... A weak gradient will exist through tonight with light winds on the waters. SCA seas will continue into this afternoon with se swells around 5ft. These swells may fall below 5 ft tonight into Sunday morning...so have held off on extending SCA past 00z tonight. SCA winds and seas expected to build on the ocean in SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front Sunday aft/eve, and then likely with NW flow in its wake Sun Night into Mon morning. A brief period of SCA gusts are possible on all waters...pre and post frontal as well. After a brief respite during he day Monday...a period of SCA winds and seas is possible Mon eve/night via a brief northerly reinforcing push of cooler air. Thereafter...tranquil conditions are expected from Tuesday into the end of the week as high pressure build in. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues expected through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD NEAR TERM...MD/DW SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...MD AVIATION...BC MARINE...NV HYDROLOGY...MD

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