Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KOKX 192328
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
728 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
A warm front will slowly approach during the day Thursday. A
complex frontal system will approach Thursday night, and move
through Friday into Friday night.Deepening low pressure may linger
over New England this weekend. A weak Alberta clipper low and
associated cold front will move through Sunday night into Monday.
High pressure builds in through mid week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --A cold front between the south shore of Long Island and the
Atlantic buoys will stall tonight as high pressure builds over
New England. Expect dry and mostly clear conditions as
temperatures fall into the 40s and 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure north of the region shifts offshore on Thursday. The
frontal boundary south of the region will slowly lift back north as
a warm front. Expect showers to develop especially across western
locations that are farther away from the center of the high. POPs
will gradually increase from west to east throughout the day, as the
high moves further offshore.
Thursday night, the warm front will lift north of the region, and an
approaching cold front remains to the west, there could be a period
of dry weather. However, with these boundaries so close to the
region, will not go completely dry and will keep chance pops in.
Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal on Thursday and
well above normal Thursday night.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Still some model differences noted in this complex system to impact
the area Friday through the weekend. A frontal system moves through
Friday/Friday night, with some degree of interaction noted with a
potential offshore tropical/subtropical system. Location of any
heavier rain bands remains in question, with overall good coverage
of showers expected Friday into Friday night.
ECMWF still appears to be much slower with cutoff upper level low
when compared to NAM, Canadian, GFS, and is wetter Saturday with
handling of wrap around precip through the day. For now, will cap
pops in the chance range due to the uncertainty/timing. Then expect
dry weather Sat night through Sunday.
In addition to the rain, expect gusty winds behind the system as
deepening low pressure slowly pushes north across New England both
Saturday and Sunday.
By Sunday night, another shortwave moves around the backside of the
cutoff, and low pressure and associated cold front push through
later Sunday night into Monday. Do not expect high coverage of
showers with this feature, but winds turn to the NW and increase
Dry weather is anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
Temps will bounce around a bit this time frame. Above normal
temperatures ahead of the system Friday will be replaced with
slightly below normal readings this weekend. A slight warmup closer
to normal is possible Monday before cooler air filters in behind the
front Tuesday and Wednesday.
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front has moved through the region. Winds generally NW
around 10 kt with exception of KJFK which is more southerly.
Winds will veer NNW this evening and then diminish/shift NE
later on tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected tonight.
On Thu, an approaching warm front will likely bring MVFR
conditions by 15Z-16Z, with winds veering E and increasing to
around 10 kt.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
KJFK TAF Comments: Wind shift at 23Z could be delayed by an hour.
Wind speeds trending lower so direction is becoming more variable.
KLGA TAF Comments: Wind speed before 02Z could be a few kts higher
KEWR TAF Comments: Wind speed before 02Z could be a few kts higher
KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence in forecast tonight.
KHPN TAF Comments: High confidence in forecast tonight.
KISP TAF Comments: Wind speed before 02Z could be a few kts higher
.Outlook for 18Z Thursday through Monday...
.THU AFTERNOON-FRI...Showers with MVFR or lower conditions
.SAT...Chance of showers with MVFR or lower conditions. NW winds
.SAT NIGHT...VFR. W winds G20-25KT.
.SUN...VFR. W winds G25-30KT.
.MON...VFR. W winds G20KT in the afternoon.
Seas have fallen below 5ft on the ocean waters. As a result, there
are no headlines on the area waters. A complex frontal system
approaches Thursday and Thursday night, will allow winds and seas to
increase, but not quite to SCA levels. expect seas to rise to around
4 ft, and expect some gusts to 20 kt, especially by Thursday
After a lull in winds Friday as a frontal boundary moves through,
there is the potential for W-NW gales Friday night through the
weekend, especially on the ocean, in the wake of the frontal system
and deepening low to the north. Winds should diminish later Sunday,
but turn NW and increase behind a cold front Monday.
Seas build and will remain rather rough through much of the period
due to the gusty winds. Followed near shore wave prediction
guidance, and Wave Watch III output.
Uncertainty with regard to precipitation amounts from a complex
frontal system Thursday through Friday, and possibly lingering
through Sat. An ensemble mean rainfall potential for 1/2 to 1
inch of rain exists, but it could be significantly less if a more
progressive scenario is realized.
Another Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the south
shore of Nassau County for the late morning high tide cycle on
Thursday. Tidal departures between 1/2 and 1 1/2 ft are expected
which may cause some locations to experience brief minor tidal
flooding of the most vulnerable shore roads and/or adjacent
The potential remains for minor coastal flooding ahead of an
approaching frontal system with the Fri afternoon high tide cycles.
Generally 1-2 ft departures are needed for minor flooding.