Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 290807 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 407 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CUTOFF LOW PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND SE CANADA WILL LIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WITH MIDLEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE REGION DRY TODAY WITH A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND H75. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM S TO N THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO A MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. COULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ACROSS SRN ZONES. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH RIDGING AT BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NE OF THE AREA TUE MORNING AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEMS ATTENDING WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE S. TRENDS ARE SLOWER ON 00Z GUIDANCE AND IT COULD END UP REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE AFTN ON TUE. HAVE CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF CHC POPS KEEPING IT ONLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE AND PASSAIC COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WEAK LOW PRESSURE/TRIPLE POINT LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALSO ENTERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL SOURCES OF LIFT TO CONSIDER BETWEEN THESE SURFACE FEATURES...A TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVING IN...A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL JET AND LARGER- SCALE LIFT FROM A JET STREAK SHIFTING THROUGH. SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS REMAINING LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND BULK SHEAR ARE ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY DURING WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS COULD BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS STILL POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA...THEN THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT EITHER SHIFTS BACK NORTH OVER US...OR JUST STALLS RIGHT OVER THE CWA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING FRIDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE BEST OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WOULD APPEAR TO BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER/TSTM...PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERN ZONES. WILL THEN GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT SOUTHERN ZONES GET HELD INTO THE 70S DURING FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS... AN ONSHORE FLOW...AND POTENTIALLY SOME RAIN.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS KHPN/KBDR EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH KGON FOLLOWING SUIT AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 040-050 CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW...BACKING TO THE SW AT THE S COASTS AFT 15-18Z. LATE DAY/EARLY EVE SOUTHERLY SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KISP. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...VFR. .TUESDAY...VFR. .TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHRA WITH SCT TSRA. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...VFR. .FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA. && .MARINE...
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SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR ALL THE OCEAN WATERS. THE OCEAN WATERS E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET REMAIN UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEN THROUGH TUE. 5-7 FT SEAS SE/S SWELLS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN...MAINLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. A POSSIBLE BUILDING SE-S SWELL COULD BRING SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN ONCE AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. A HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...AND GIVEN EXPECTED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353. && $$

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