Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 222100 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 400 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... CLOUDS MARCHING IN FROM THE WEST AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AFTER ANALYSIS OF NCEP MODELS...ECMWF AND MESOSCALE MODELS...LIGHT PRECIP MAY CLIP A PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING NORTH. KEPT POPS QUITE LOW TONIGHT AS MEASURABLE QPF NOT LIKELY. HOWEVER...A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SW FLOW AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...READINGS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. DO NOT NEED MUCH PRECIP TO CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AS ANY RAIN FREEZES ON CONTACT WITH THE SFC...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OBSERVING MUCH FREEZING RAIN WITH BORDERLINE TEMPS AND SPARSE COVERAGE AS MENTIONED TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... RIDGING SUNDAY OCCURS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS OVER THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS DEEPENING LOW MARCHES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY...ANY MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SW WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST LOCALES...CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND. THEN TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE EVENING BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY WEEK...WITH PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM/NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC MON NIGHT/TUE. THE RESULT WILL BE A BOMBING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TAKING A SIMILAR PATH AS THE UPPER ENERGY. AHEAD OF IT...DEEP S/SW FLOW...WITH 70-75 KT LLJ...WILL BRING A MOIST AIRMASS (PW 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL) INTO THE REGION UP AND OVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING. A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING INDICATE SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF TRI-STATE. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY MON...WITH REGION WARM SECTORED IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...15-20 DEG ABOVE SEASONABLE...POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR MON AFT. A TIGHT SW GRADIENT AND CONTINUED HEALTHY LLJ OF 40-45 KT AT 950 MB SHOULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS N&W OF NYC MON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND RESULTANT DEEPER MIXED LAYER. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE...AND CAA IN ITS WAKE. TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THEN POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A COASTAL STORM IMPACTING THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE DRIVER FOR THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THE ENERGY PIVOTING UP THE COAST MIDWEEK AS IT PHASES WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DIFFERENCES EXIST MORE SO WITH THE DEGREE OF THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFFECTING HOW NEGATIVELY TILTED THE TROUGH BECOMES. THE RESULT IS SOME TIMING...BUT MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF TRACKS TO THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW COAST...SNOW INTERIOR ON WED...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK NORTH. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TALK ABOUT SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATION...BUT AT THIS POINT A LOW POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE. THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HI PRES REMAINS S OF THE REGION TNGT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUN. MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A LITTLE BAND OF -RA MIXED WITH SLEET IS ON TRACK TO REACH KSWF AROUND 2130Z. INCLUDED AN HOUR GROUP FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...LOW CHC OF POCKETS OF -FZRA TNGT AT KSWF WITH MVFR CIGS. PROB STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. GUSTY SW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVE. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE HOWEVER TO 45-50KT AT 3K FT...SO INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS. IF THE WINDS MIX DOWN...GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT CAN BE EXPECTED TNGT AND LLWS WILL NOT BE REALIZED. LIGHTER SSW FLOW SUN. THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT AT KHPN TO KGON WITH LI SOUND TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS WOULD BACK WINDS TO AROUND 170 TRUE AFT 17Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU... .SUN...VFR WITH GENERALLY SSW FLOW. .SUN NGT-MON...WRMFNT PASSES. IFR OR LWR IN RA AND FG. LLWS WITH 50KT AT 800 FT. SFC GUSTS OVER 25KT POSSIBLE. .MON NGT...BECOMING VFR WITH CDFNT. .TUE...VFR WITH W WINDS 20-30KT. .WED...POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRES TO TRACK OFF THE COAST AND IMPACT THE REGION. THREAT FOR SNOW ACCUMS W OF THE LOW CENTER. .THU...VFR. && .MARINE... SW WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP...BUT WILL KEEP WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR OUT FOR NOW. A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND. HOWEVER...THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...SO WILL NOT UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...WITH SCA CRITERIA ELSEWHERE. WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE AT NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. ROUGH OCEAN SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING YET AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MON BRINGING THE THREAT OF GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. GALE WATCH FOR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MON. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE LATER WED THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. && .HYDROLOGY... RAIN MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A QUICK HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AROUND AN INCH. ANY MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LOCALLY. A LOW POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS WED INTO WED NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER... LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR..... NEWARK..............75/1979..... BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..... CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..... LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..... JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.... ISLIP...............63/2001..... * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345- 355. GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV/PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...JMC MARINE...NV/PW HYDROLOGY...NV/PW CLIMATE...

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