Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KOKX 240841
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
441 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016
High pressure will build in from the north today, remain over the
region through the weekend, then drift offshore on Monday. A cold
front will impact the region toward the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dense fog continues to linger across Long Island. The dense fog
advisory will therefore remain in effect until 8 am.
Outside of the top of the fog bank, only high clouds were over the
county warning area. These will continue to exit per the latest
Low level moisture attempts to pool from New Jersey northward into
the Hudson Valley due to weak onshore flow this afternoon. This
will enhance surface based instability. The models suggest some
showers will break out in these areas as a result, but the models
have been too sensitive when inducing convection, so when coupled
with synoptic scale subsidence, the forecast has been kept dry.
A combination of the MAV, MET and Superblend was used for
There is a moderate risk for rip current development today at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This
will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak
low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over
Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on
Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area,
but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow,
particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures
from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so
the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET.
Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The
Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance
in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior
river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the
weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend
will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north
and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the
combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water
temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along
the coast may only reach the lower 80s.
A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds to the north through Friday.
VLIFR conditions in fog early this morning at KISP. This should
generally be confined to southern and eastern Long Island
terminals, and should begin to lift around 10Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through the day on Friday.
Light northeast winds will increase to around 10 kt this morning.
Winds then veer to the east through late morning, then to the
southeast this afternoon. South coastal terminals are more likely
to see southeast winds earlier in the afternoon.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: MVFR visibilities may linger an additional hour
beyond what is indicated in the TAF.
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KISP TAF Comments: VLIFR conditions may linger an additional 1-2
hours beyond what is indicated in the TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
-- End Changed Discussion --
High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas
below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure
passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may
produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each
afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop.
The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through
Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ078>081.