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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 162312
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
712 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...LEAVING
A MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC COLD FRONT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL CT TO AREAS N/W OF NYC EARLY
THIS EVENING. FRONT HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESS...LIKELY DUE TO
MEETING RESISTANCE FROM STRONG AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST. ENOUGH MIXING AND CONVERGENCE OCCURRED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TO POP A FEW SPRINKLES AND HAVE ADDED THESE TO THE FCST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY FOR NYC AND NASSAU COUNTY. THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY BEGIN A SE PUSH THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE DIES
DOWN. GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST MAY LINGER
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

OTHERWISE...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MOST NOTICEABLE
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S
EVERYWHERE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S.

USED A MET/MAV MOS BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 12Z NAM HAS THROWN OUT A NEW SOLN WHICH BRINGS SOME CONCERN WRT
THE ONGOING DRY FCST FOR SAT. THE MODEL BRINGS THE WARM FRONT UP TO
THE AREA AND PRODUCES A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY ISOLD
TSTMS RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN DRY. POSITION
AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE NRN STREAM JET.
WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE GLOBAL IN NATURE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE
RESOLUTION OF THIS JET...AND AS A RESULT WILL KEEP THE FRONT S OF
THE CWA WITH A DRY FCST.

THE SAME QUANDARY EXISTS AS YESTERDAY WRT TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST...WITH THE ECMWF PRODUCING A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUE AS
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND THE GFS KEEPING THE CWA
CLOUDY AND COOL WITH A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE REGION. THE ECMWF
BRING THE FRONT THRU AS A WARM FRONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG. WILL
CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF ATTM...BUT LOW CHC POPS REMAIN IN
THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS MAINLY
DIURNALLY FORCED SHRA AND TSTMS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG SUN NGT THRU MON NGT...TIL A DRIER SW
FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS COULD KEEP THE DAYTIME HOURS MAINLY
CLOUDY...AND ALONG THE S SHORES MISTY BEFORE THE FOG SETS IN IN THE
EVE AGAIN. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY...SO THERE COULD BE SHRA AND TSTMS WITH THE LLVL JET DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY BEGINNING PRE-DAWN.

TEMPS ARE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF MOS.

TEMPS AROUND 80 WITH TD/S IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 POSSIBLE WRN ZONES
TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME 1500 J/KG CAPE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTMS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHCS FOR TSTMS
TUE EVE AND WED NGT.

THIS AIR MASS GETS CLEARED OUT AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT TIMING
CONTINUES TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY. LOW CHCS FOR PCPN THEREFORE
CONTINUE THU...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF NOT CLEARING THE FRONT THRU TIL
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS S-SW 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT UNTIL AROUND 23Z NYC EAST
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT INCLUDING KJFK AND KLGA. WINDS SW-W 10-14
KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT UNTIL AROUND 22Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INCLUDING KEWR...KTEB AND KHPN.

WINDS BECOMING NW AND DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFT SUNSET ALL AREAS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDS IN
RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCA FOR WESTERN OCEAN ZONE HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE BEEN
CONISTENTLY BELOW 5 FEET FOR THE LAST 3 HOURS AT THE NY HARBOR
BUOY.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN ON THE WATERS WILL BE THE LINGERING 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY FALL BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE CENTRAL OCEAN ZONE...THE SCA EXPIRES AT
06Z AND THE FAR EASTERN ZONE EXPIRES AT 10Z.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW.

LIGHT WINDS ON SAT WITH HI PRES OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS BLW SCA
LVLS EXPECTED. ON SUN...A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING PRES GRAD ON THE WATERS AND A
CHC FOR SCA E/SE WINDS. ON THE OCEAN...POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR AT
LEAST 5 FT SEAS. SEAS AOA 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE THRU WED ON THE OCEAN.
ELSEWHERE...PREVAILING SLY COMPONENT FLOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
REACH SCA LVL WINDS THRU THE PERIOD ATTM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD HVY RAIN EVENTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED SUN-THU...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MON...WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOC HVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ353.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...GS/BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GC/IRD
MARINE...GS/BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC