Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 132340 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 740 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO EAST OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... BACK EDGE OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MAIN BAND CLEARING EASTERN LI/SE CT BY 8 PM. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO EAST OF NYC. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS AND SENDS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST...INCREASING N-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE RAPID CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SW-WSW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ANCHORED OVER UPPER HUDSON BAY. WITH BEST DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DUE TO SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES AND 925 HPA ELSEWHERE - PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS THERE. VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION SENDS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN AND SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND... THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE MORNING. THERE ARE SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS FRONT HAS DECENT UPPER SUPPORT...BUT NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...SO LOOKING FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WILL REINFORCE THE DRY...COOL AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. USED A BLEND OF WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN ENDS BY MIDNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KGON. DURING THE SAME PERIOD...IFR IMPROVES TO VFR. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT FOR THE CITY TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS STARTING NEAR MIDNIGHT. GUSTS MIGHT ONLY BE OCCASIONAL. VFR FOR SUNDAY WITH WINDS PRIMARILY BELOW 10KT. AFTN SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KBDR/KGON...AND POSSIBLY KEWR AS WELL. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUN NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. .TUESDAY...SUB-VFR IN -RA LIKELY. .WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... AFTER A BRIEF LULL THIS EVENING...WINDS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL TO MAYBE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT IN A NARROW WINDOW FROM SAY 7-12Z OR SO...THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO 1/ REFLECT IN THE FORECAST AND 2/ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT EVALUATE ANY FUTURE NEED FOR AN SCA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL. A COLD FRONT MOVES TROUGH TUE MORNING AND ANOTHER LATE WED INTO THU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND EACH COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD REACH THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY. UNDERCUT THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A FOOT AS SWELLS APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... .1 INCHES OR LESS OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND 1/4 INCH. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JC MARINE...MALOIT/DW HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.