Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 241836 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 136 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE OCEAN AND LONG ISLAND. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR QUEENS...NASSAU...AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EST. THERE IS CLEARING TO THE WEST AND THE FOG MAY BURN OFF A LITTLE EARLIER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF SUN FOR TODAY. INLAND WHERE THE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA TONIGHT WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT USHERING THE WARM AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS OFFSHORE. WINDS/GUSTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN UP ENOUGH WITH CAA LAGGING FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A FEW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SCHC POPS. CAA ENSUES ON TUE...ALBEIT WEAK. STRONGER CAA HOLDS OFF TIL TUE NIGHT...THEREFORE HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BETWEEN 50 AND 55. GUSTY WINDS RETURN AFT SUNRISE WITH JUST A CIRRUS DECK. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS HAVE COME INTO SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS ON THE STORM SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS STORM TRACK TO THE EAST - BUT STILL REMAINS A WESTERN OUTLIER COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER/EASTERN OUTLIER. AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/CMC. LOOKING ALOFT...MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK INTO EASTERN TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THEY STILL DIFFER ON THEIR HANDLING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE UPPER PLAINS/S CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. IT IS THE INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE TROUGH...WHICH ULTIMATELY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT AMPLITUDE/PLACEMENT OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW. FOR NOW...THE CONSENSUS IS GROWING FOR THE LOW TO TRACK NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER FAR S PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION COULD INITIALLY START AS A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW OVER COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. FARTHER INLAND...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT COASTAL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND. SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE CT AND SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY COULD LINGER UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR S CT. IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ AND FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR S CT. THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP DROP OFF BETWEEN AREAS RECEIVING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS AND THOSE RECEIVING MAYBE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY AND ON HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK...THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE NJ/NYC/COASTAL S CT AND ALL BUT E SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. THE MID-UPPER TROUGH FINISHES LIFTING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WNW FLOW SETTING UP FRIDAY THEN ZONAL FLOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...MAINLY ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WARM FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MOVE WESTWARD...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS NOW BEING OBSERVED WEST OF NYC. MVFR OR LESS CONTINUES AT TERMINALS ACROSS CONNECTICUT...NYC AND LONG ISLAND. FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE ALSO MOVED IN ACROSS LONG ISLAND...INCLUDING KJFK. FOG HAS REDUCED VSBYS TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE AND CIGS TO LESS THAN 600 FT. UNSURE JUST HOW LONG THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST. THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TIL 22Z- 00Z...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE THOSE CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLIER THAN FORECAST. ALSO...SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE FOG/STRATUS CON TINING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. SO IF THERE IS ANY IMPROVEMENT...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST. S WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT WITH 30 KT GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH LOW FOG/STRATUS. CHANCE THAT FOG/STRATUS IMPROVES SOONER THAN FORECAST. IF SO...WINDS COULD ALSO GUST HIGHER THAN FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD GUST HIGHER THAN FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD GUST HIGHER THAN FORECAST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD GUST HIGHER THAN FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES AND WINDS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH LOW FOG/STRATUS. CHANCE THAT FOG/STRATUS IMPROVES SOONER THAN FORECAST. IF SO...WINDS COULD ALSO GUST HIGHER THAN FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... ...HIGH IMPACT EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS. .TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE. .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FCST. ACCUMULATING SNOW PROBABLE FOR THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. N WINDS 10-15 KT AM...INCR 15-20 KT EVENING WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. .THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY. WNW 10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT. .FRIDAY...VFR. NW 10-15 KT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. .SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT. && .MARINE... WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON THE WATERS WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD. EXPECTING THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE WIND BEGINS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ISSUED A DENSE FOG THROUGH 00Z ON ALL THE WATERS. STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND LLJ THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN GALES ON ALL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY AFTER 06Z TUE. END OF REMAINING WATERS STILL 23Z TODAY...BUT THE WESTERN SOUND AND HARBOR MAY FALL BELOW A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THAT. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A TIGHT WNW GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A COASTAL LOW BRINGS A CHANCE OF GALE CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF GALES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GALE THREAT ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE HWO. CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS PERSIST ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET INTO FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1 TO 1 3/4 INCHES OF QPF TO FALL FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AREA CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND AND THE LOWEST OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE. OVER THE INTERIOR MOST OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FARTHER TO THE S/E...BASICALLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER... LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH NEWARK..............75/1979..........72 BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........66 CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........70 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........71 JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68 ISLIP...............63/2001..........67 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>008. NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NYZ067>070. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ078>081- 176>179. NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-105. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...BC MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...MET CLIMATE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.