Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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489 FXUS61 KOKX 221431 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1031 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across early this morning. High pressure then starts building from the Great Lakes, moving more into the region tonight into Thursday. The high moves offshore Thursday night. A warm front passes Friday, followed by a cold front Saturday. The front remains south of the area as high pressure builds to the north over the weekend. Waves of low pressure impact the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Quick moving batches of snow showers/flurries have now pushed east of CT and Eastern Long Island. Any thicker areas of clouds in these locations should start to break for sun in the next hour or so as subsidence works in and dries out the low-levels. Winds have ramped up in The City from the northwest, especially across Queens where several gusts have reached over 40 mph even away from JFK and LaGuardia. Bumped up hourly winds and wind gusts for the next few hours based on these trends in this area as well as in western Nassau. Water vapor shows a small area of subsidence accompanying this ramp up in winds working east. Current wind headlines look good at this point. The only other change based on visible satellite imagery and surface observations as well as GFS cross sections for the rest of this morning and early this afternoon was to bump up sky cover over the interior sections - mainly The OC of NY and Upper Passaic County. Clouds could become dominant at times as mid-level energy passes overhead and based on cloud cover upstream over Upstate NY and northeast PA. Models dry out the low-levels by later this afternoon enough in these areas that the sun should return. Temps will be near steady with a rapid fall by late this afternoon into this evening as CAA increases. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Dry and cold through the period. Jet stream still south of the region this evening with more of a ridging trend thereafter as the jet starts to move back north. Winds starts to taper down tonight, with Long Island/NYC still seeing some higher gusts until 8pm. Wind advisory still in effect early part of this evening (6-8pm) for NYC and Long Island. The pressure gradient thereafter starts to lower with the closer proximity of high pressure building in from the NW. Lows tonight and highs Thursday used a blend of MAV/MET/GMOS. Well below normal values with lows tonight in the lower teens to lower 20s and highs Thursday in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Thought for the lows tonight, the radiational cooling will be partially mitigated due to mixing with winds in the boundary layer. Wind chills drop into the single digits for most locations. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Unsettled weather through much of this time frame. Model details remain uncertain, but chances for wet weather look likely through the period. A warm front passes Friday as high pressure departs to the east. Generally light precip is expected as the warm front moves through, certainly not a wash out, or significant event. A cold front will likely approach from the north as a ridge of high pressure moves across central canada, pushing the front southward. The front sags just to the south late Saturday, and will remain there for several days. Once again, some wet weather is possible Saturday and Saturday night as the front moves through, but not a wash out. Then, attention turns toward upstream trough and low pressure as it approaches from the west Sunday and Monday. Looks like a good chance for rain, or a wintry mix across the interior, at times. This trough passes, with yet another one on its heels Tuesday. More wet weather expected by that time. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, especially once the front passes to the south late Saturday. Near normal temps are expected Friday, with slightly above normal readings for Saturday. Thereafter, readings in the 40s during the day, with 30s at night are forecast as the local area remains north, or on the cool side of the front. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Canadian high pressure is building into the region. VFR through the TAF period. NW winds 15-20KT with gusts up to 30KT into late morning. The strongest winds will occur from 16Z-23Z when NW winds will be sustained near 25KT with gusts up to 40KT. Gusts begin to drop off after sunset and diminish after midnight. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Wind gusts could occasionally be stronger than forecast. KLGA TAF Comments: Wind gusts could occasionally be stronger than forecast. KEWR TAF Comments: Wind gusts could occasionally be stronger than forecast. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Wind gusts could occasionally be stronger than forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: Wind gusts could occasionally be stronger than forecast. KISP TAF Comments: Wind gusts could occasionally be stronger than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 00z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wed...VFR. NW Gusts 30-35 kt. .Thursday..VFR. .Friday...CHC PM SHRA/MVFR. SW gusts 25 kt. .Saturday...Mainly VFR. .Sunday...MVFR/IFR and rain. E gusts 20-25 kt. && .MARINE... Winds have picked up this morning across the coastal waters behind the front with numerous gusts to over 40 kts and waves at the buoys south of Fire Island now up to 7 ft. Gusty winds of 35 kts+ and waves of 4 to 7 ft will continue through early this evening before conditions start to decrease tonight from west to east. Gale warning remains until 06Z Thursday. SCA remains likely thereafter late tonight into early Thursday before all waters go below SCA for the rest of Thursday. High pressure moves across the waters Thursday night, and passes well to the east Friday. Winds diminish during this time, but begin to increase from the SW later Friday into Friday night. A cold front approaches from the north Saturday, and settles near or just south of the waters Saturday night into Sunday. Winds diminish, and turn toward the E/NE. Speeds increase yet again Sunday as high pressure builds well to the north. && .FIRE WEATHER... NW winds of 15-30 mph with gusts 35-50 mph and min RH dropping to near 20 to 25 percent should help dry fine fuels across the snow barren ground. This will enhance the threat for brush fire spread in those areas today. Winds are lighter but similar RH values are expected for Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Unsettled weather from this weekend through early next week may result in an inch or more of precipitation. However, this would occur over a prolonged period and would be intermittent, so no hydrologic concerns are anticipated. && .CLIMATE... The following are record low temperatures for Thursday March 23, 2017 along with the forecast low temperatures. Record Low Temperature Forecast Low Temperature ---------------------- ------------------------ Central Park........12 (1875) 21 LaGuardia...........20 (1959) 22 Kennedy.............20 (1959) 21 Islip...............15 (2004) 18 Newark..............13 (1934) 19 Bridgeport..........19 (2004) 19 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072>075- 078>081-176>179. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>071. NJ...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ330-335-338-340- 345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/CS NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...CB MARINE...JM/PW/CS FIRE WEATHER...JM/PW HYDROLOGY...JM/PW CLIMATE...OKX

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