Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 291539 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1139 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over southern Quebec will maintain a moist northeast flow off the Atlantic Ocean into the weekend as low pressure spins over the Ohio Valley. The unsettled weather may continue into Tuesday, then high pressure builds to the north for mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Persistence continues with cloudy skies, breezy, near steady temperatures and some patch drizzle. The tri-state remains in a blocking pattern as a cutoff meanders over the Ohio Valley and high pressure at the surface over southern Quebec continues to build into the region. Have removed light rain mention and gone with just patchy drizzle as forecast sounding support some slight thinning of the stratus deck. There is a high risk of rip current development at Atlantic ocean beaches - note, the issuance of the daily surf zone forecast ends tomorrow - September 30th. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Steadier rain moves in towards morning as a stalled frontal boundary well south of the region treks slowly northward and over- running increases ahead of the front. There are some spatial differences in model solutions as to the axis of heavier precipitation. Thinking is that the heavier rain will occur over southern sections as those areas will be closer to the approaching frontal boundary. With any blocking pattern comes persistence, thus we can expect with low clouds and light precipitation to continue into Friday. There will be small diurnal range in temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Locked upper level pattern remains in place to start the long term period. A cut off low over the Ohio Valley remains in place through the weekend, due to a large western Atlantic ridge. The ridge finally weakens and shifts south early next week allowing the upper low to finally start moving late Sunday night into Monday. In terms of weather for our region, expect unsettled weather through the weekend and into next week, with periods of rain or drizzle. The weather may become more showery in nature for the second half of the weekend. Some elevated weak instability could result in some thunder at times as well. High pressure starts to build into the region Tuesday or Wednesday. Depending on how quickly the drier air can work in, we could see the precipitation come to an end on Tuesday. For now, with some uncertainty, will keep at least some chance pops in on Tuesday. Expect drier weather on Wednesday. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly below normal, due to the clouds, rain and easterly flow. Saturday night lows however remains slightly above normal. Temperatures Sunday through the middle of next week will see temperatures near normal. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Terminal area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low pressure to the southwest into Friday. Most likely MVFR at City/Long Island terminals through the TAF period, with a low chance of a brief period of VFR this afternoon. KHPN and CT Terminals should improve from MVFR to VFR this afternoon, then return to MVFR overnight. Bulk of rain should hold off until the overnight hours, with some spotty drizzle possible before then. NE winds through the TAF period, gusty mainly at coastal terminals to 20-30kt. Gusts mainly occasional inland. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Very low chance of VFR this afternoon. Peak gusts could be 5kt or so higher than those in TAFs. KLGA TAF Comments: Very low chance of VFR this afternoon. Peak gusts could be 5kt or so higher than those in TAFs. KEWR TAF Comments: Low chance of VFR this afternoon. Peak gusts could be 5kt or so higher than those in TAFs. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Low chance of VFR this afternoon. Occasional gusts to 20-25kt possible. KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in ceiling forecast through 21z. Occasional gusts 20-25kt possible through 20z. KISP TAF Comments: Very low chance of VFR this afternoon. Peak gusts could be 5kt or so higher than those in TAFs. .Outlook for 12Z Friday through Monday... .Friday-Saturday Night...IFR/MVFR in rain. NE winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt through Friday Night. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt Saturday-Saturday Night. .Sunday-Monday...VFR. MVFR possible with showers Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... Northeast winds will increase somewhat this morning. Gale conditions are expected over the ocean waters, while SCA is expected elsewhere. Seas build to around 5 ft on the open portions of the Sound and up to 12 ft on the ocean through Friday. Rough conditions will continue through at least Saturday night. Conditions will then slowly improve as the gradient weakens. && .HYDROLOGY... The more significant rainfall is expect to not arrive until late Thursday night and continue into the weekend. Average rainfall totals will range between 0.75" for northwest portions of the region, to 1.5" for southeastern section. The prolonged nature of the rain event should preclude any hydrologic issues. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A persistent moderate northeast flow through Friday will keep persistent elevated water levels. Water levels across the Atlantic Ocean facing south shore bays in Nassau will reach minor tidal flooding benchmarks again tonight - a few inches higher than this morning. Latest data does not support expansion of the minor flooding on Friday - with just the bays of southern Nassau reaching minor benchmarks. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JP NEAR TERM...Tongue SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JC/Maloit MARINE...BC/JP HYDROLOGY...BC/JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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