Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KOKX 260107
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
807 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017
Showers end this evening as a cold front moves off the coast. Cool
high pressure then builds south of the area through Monday. A slow
moving warm front will approach from Monday night into Tuesday
night, the lift north on Wednesday. Low pressure passing to the
north will drag a trailing cold front through late Wednesday night
or early Thursday. Another cold front will pass through on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track. Rain ends in the NY Metro by 9 PM. Dense fog
advisory will expire for eastern coastal areas as cold front
Northwest winds usher in a more seasonal airmass overnight.
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Seasonable weather returns for Sunday. NW winds gust up to 30
mph through the day and then diminish at night. With clear
skies and light winds, expect decent radiational cooling Sunday
Temperature guidance remains consistent and was accepted.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NWP guidance fairly close through the period, though did side with
slower NAM at first with approaching weak mid level shortwave moving
through a flat upper longwave ridge. After that, went with a 00Z
ECMWF/12Z GFS blend, with increasing chances of rain in large scale
WAA, and likelihood of rain Tue night through Wed night ahead low
pressure passing to the north and an approaching trailing cold
front. As mild/humid air streams northward with dewpoints in the
50s, fog likely Wed night that could be dense along the coast. Cold
fropa late Wed night could be accompanied by brief heavier showers.
After cold fropa on Thu, drier/colder air will arrive on a gusty W
then NW flow, with wind gusts 30-40 mph possible especially NYC
metro and coastal sections. Another cold frontal passage expected
late Friday, and kept fcst dry but did increase clouds with its
Temps should remain on the mild side through Thu, with at least 50s
each day and lower 60s for NYC metro/NE NJ on Wed. Much colder for
Thu night and beyond, with lows in the lower 30s NYC metro and 20s
elsewhere Thu night and Sat night, and even colder Fri night, with
teens and 20s.
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A cold front moves east tonight with high pressure building in
from the west thereafter.
Fog and IFR/LIFR conditions eastern terminals will return to
VFR before 03Z as front moves through.
Otherwise, any linger showers end quickly, with VFR conditions
through the TAF period.
Winds W-WNW near 15 kt gusting 25-30 kt are expected. Winds
could occasionally peak a few kts higher than forecast.
These gusty conditions continue through the day Sunday.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday night-Monday evening...VFR. W-SW winds G15-20KT Monday.
.Late Monday night-Wednesday...Chance of MVFR or lower at times with
rain. S-SW winds G15-20 KT along coast Wednesday.
.Wednesday night...Areas of fog and rain. IFR or below. SW winds G15-
25KT along coast.
.Thursday...MVFR possible with a chance of showers. SW-W winds G20-
-- End Changed Discussion --
Small craft advisory (SCA) on the coastal waters for through
the day on Sunday in the wake of a cold frontal passage this
SCA conditions will linger through Sunday night on the Ocean
waters as winds slowly subside, but seas will remain at or above
the 5 FT criteria.
Mon into Mon Eve: SCA for the eastern ocean waters via
favorable WSW fetch of 15-20 kt wind on northern periphery of
offshore high pressure.
Wed afternoon/night: SCA conds on the ocean waters via increasing S-
SW flow ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Dense fog
likely to develop as very moist air moves over the colder waters.
Thu into Thu night: Cold fropa followed by W-NW gales on the ocean
and SCA conds elsewhere.
Around a half inch of rain with locally higher amounts can be
expected this evening. Rainfall of 1/2 to 3/4 inch possible
from Tue night into Thu morning. No hydrologic issues expected.
CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for CTZ010>012.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for NYZ079-081.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ330-335-338-
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-340-