Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190539 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 139 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the western Atlantic and extending into the region remains through the end of the week. A weak surface trough also remains inland. A warm front moves north across the area on Saturday, then a cold front approaches on Monday. High pressure builds into the area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Stratus clouds and light fog across portions of SE CT and the east end of Long Island will gradually spread west across the coast, mainly east of NYC overnight. Otherwise, a very warm humid maritime tropical air mass will continue overnight, making it feel quite uncomfortable. Other than an isolated shower, no additional convection is forecast overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Little change is expected as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic and a surface trough remains inland. Wednesday will be a little more humid and warmer as the airmass remains in place. Convection will again be diurnally driven with the best low chance probabilities inland, and slight chances along the coastal areas. CAPE and instability will again be marginal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thursday through the end of the week should be relatively dry with a low threat for isolated showers and thunderstorms at times throughout this period, mainly across the interior. Temperatures will be in the low 90s Thursday and Friday with lows in the mid 70s. On Saturday, a front south of the area begins to push north bringing the threat for additional showers and thunderstorms. The front will move across the area as a warm front Sunday into Sunday night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front. Temperatures for the weekend will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the low 70s. A cold front will approach on Monday then push through the area Monday night, resulting in another round of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. On Tuesday, high pressure will build in from the west with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure remains over the western Atlantic as a trough of low pressure sits over the area through Wednesday. VFR conditions are expected initially before patchy fog and stratus develops later tonight. MVFR vsby and cigs possible before daybreak but should see local conditions east of city terminals fall to IFR and below. Morning stratus and fog burns off after 13-15Z, with VFR expected during the late morning and afternoon hours outside of any showers or thunderstorms. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms NW of NYC. South winds diminish overnight to less than 5 kt. Stronger S/SW flow develops Wednesday with 10-15 kt sustained, gusting to near 20 kt. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday night...Any showers and thunderstorms diminishing in the evening. VFR. .Thursday-Friday...VFR. .Saturday...MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. .Sunday...MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE... With a warm and humid airmass across the waters this evening and tonight, visibilities will lower as fog develops, especially late tonight. At this time will not bring visibilities below 1 nautical mile, however, this will be possible late overnight. Otherwise, a very weak pressure gradient force will remain over the region with high pressure across the western Atlantic. Winds and seas remain well below SCA levels through Wednesday night. Small craft advisory conditions are not expected across all area waters Thursday through the beginning of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected Thursday and through the beginning of the week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/MET/DW NEAR TERM...GC/MET/DW SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...BC/PW MARINE...Fig/MET/DW HYDROLOGY...Fig/MET is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.