Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 050919 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 419 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY. LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON TRACK WITH THIS WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING...PASSING NEAR THE 40/70 AROUND MIDDAY AT AROUND 1002MB AND DEEPENING. TRANSITION TO SNOW NEAR ON TRACK WITH TIMING...WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST REMAINING RAIN WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE. DEW POINTS WERE REMAINING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER TO MID 30S WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH THE PRECIPITATION NOT LOWERING TEMPERATURES AS MUCH. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AND THEN HOW MUCH WILL FALL AND ACCUMULATE. WITH THE LATER ONSET OF SNOW ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TWEAKED SNOW TOTALS DOWNWARD...HOWEVER...STILL REACHING WARNING AND ADVISORY LEVELS. ONLY OTHER MINOR CHANGE IS A LITTLE QUICKER END TO THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY. TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL. OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW BY 08Z OR SO BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY AROUND 11Z. MVFR CONDS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT ONSET OF SNOW...AND LIFR CONDS EXPECTED IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH CIGS LESS THAN 500 FT AND VSBYS LESS THAN 1 MILE IS LIKELY FROM AROUND 10-16Z. CONDS GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW DEPARTS. NE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...THEN NW WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: NYC METRO TERMINALS...3-5 INCHES KISP/KGON...6-8 INCHES. KSWF...2-4 INCHES. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. .MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO TONIGHT. SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY THAT TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ007- 008-011-012. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005-006- 009-010. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075- 176>179. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006- 103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$

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