Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 040250 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1050 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND THEN EXTENDS NE INTO EASTERN MA. THERE WAS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA WHERE NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS TAKE THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO EASTERN CT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...IT APPEARS THIS WILL STAY TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. LOWS ARE A 12Z MOS BLEND IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE NY METRO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR FRI AS NE WIND USHERS IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. ALSO EXTENSIVE COULD COVER IS FORECAST. TEMPS COULD ACTUALLY NOT BREAK 80 IN CENTRAL PARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY 2 MONTHS. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER GFS MOS BASED ON EXPECTATIONS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS ARE NEAR 80. CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NE FLOW PERSISTING. RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS BUILD AND LONG SHORE CURRENT INCREASES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH RISK LIKELY PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE IS ALSO OVERALL DEPICTION OF A BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SE US...PART OF WHICH MAY SHEAR NE DURING THE WEEK. PREDICTABILITY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT STRENGTH AND TIMING IS AGAIN IN QUESTION. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER AND EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK SAT DUE TO 5 FT EASTERLY SWELLS/WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH BERMUDA HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES AT THIS POINT LOOKING JUST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TEMPS. THE CAVEAT IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS THAT WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY/MID WEEK. THIS WOULD POSE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK. POTENTIAL IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RIDGING TO FLATTEN ENOUGH BY THURSDAY FOR APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A COOLER AIRMASS TO INFILTRATE THE AREA. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS BEING MVFR WITHIN FOG OR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO TAFS DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THEM. THE MVFR FOG WILL BE PRIMARILY ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINES. TIMING COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST AND COULD BRIEFLY BECOME IFR. MVFR WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FRIDAY WITH SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. CEILINGS FOR A FEW TERMINALS COULD LOWER BELOW 2KFT AT TIMES. CEILINGS LIFT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SCATTER OUT BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING AN INCREASING E-NE FLOW FRIDAY 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. GUST TIMING COULD BE OFF A FEW HOURS FROM FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY-TUESDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE FLOW. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRING IN A NE FLOW THAT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SCA IS ISSUES FOR THE OCEAN STARTING AT 10 AM...THOUGH THE SCA CONDITION WILL SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THEREAFTER...SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... SEE SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST RELATED TO GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW. FNUS51 KOKX / NYCFWFOKX && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/NV/DW NEAR TERM...TONGUE/DW SHORT TERM...TONGUE LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...JM MARINE...TONGUE/NV FIRE WEATHER...TONGUE HYDROLOGY...TONGUE

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