Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280605 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 205 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak fronts cross the region Friday through Sunday. A more significant cold front will pass through from the west Monday night, followed by weak high pressure into Wednesday. Another weak frontal system may begin to approach on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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1230 AM Update - Visibilities have come down in association with fog across mainly Long Island, Connecticut, Westchester, and New York City. Have issued and SPS for locally dense fog, which should improve just after sunrise. Will continue to monitor for the possibility of a Dens Fog Advisory. Otherwise, forecast is on track.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... The cold front washes out across the region Friday. The more SW flow continues as the airmass will continue to get warmer. Ridging aloft occurs. Fog burns off in the morning. More sun is expected. Highs Friday in the upper 60s out east where rain showers and low clouds could linger to lower 80s for western locations where there will be more sun. A chance of showers and thunderstorms early but drier conditions move in the afternoon with more of a westerly component to wind. Next system approaches Friday night from the NW. Ridging will make it more difficult for thunder. Showers chances increase late at night into early Saturday. Lows in the low 50s to low 60s Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast for this time frame remains rather consistent. First, a weakening front nearby and a passing mid level shortwave may generate some showers and possibly an elevated tstm mainly inland Sat morning. Then Bermuda type high pressure setting up over the western Atlantic will set up a favorable flow for warm temperatures on Sat, even across coastal areas, as winds shift to the southwest and then west. Have continued to trend warmer, with some places in NE NJ reaching the upper 80s, on the higher end of guidance. If the slightly warmer NAM were to verify, with full mixing to 850 mb and late day downslope flow, Newark could make a run at the first 90- degree reading of the year. Many places away from south facing shorelines should get into at least the lower 80s, with 70s along the coastlines and in the hither elevations inland. Capping inversion will keep afternoon precip at bay. A back door cold front dropping from the north should come through at night, with some showers and possibly an elevated tstm, as low levels stabilize but mid and upper levels remain marginally unstable. It will be noticeably cooler for Sunday with near average temps in the 60s. Not much change for the long term with a warm front approaching Sunday night and lifting through on Monday, accompanied by showers and possibly an elevated tstm. Temps on Mon will be above average, with upper 60s across Long Island and most of southern CT, and 70s from NYC north/west. Some showers could come in late day ahead of an approaching cold front, but the main push should come at night, with only slight chance for a tstm as instability looks rather marginal. Any remaining showers out east on Tue should end by late morning, with fair wx and temps once again slightly above average for both Tue and Wed as weak high pressure slides south, with upper 60s and lower 70s. Increasing clouds on Wed ahead of the next weak frontal system should limit high temps on Thu to the lower and mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A weakening cold front dissipates as it moves into western portions of the area this morning. High pressure then builds in from the southeast into tonight. IFR or lower at all terminals this morning, falling beneath terminal minimums at times. Conditions should improve around 10z far west/12z city terminals/14z eastern terminals to IFR-MVFR as flow becomes more ssw-sw, then VFR by mid morning to early afternoon from w to e as well. Light and variable/E-SE flow under 10 kt, gradually veers to W over western terminals by mid morning and to the SW at eastern terminals by around midday. Seabreezes likely at CT terminals and possible at Long Island/City terminals this afternoon. Frequent gusts to around 15 kt are possible this afternoon KEWR/KTEB/KHPN, with occasional gusts to 15 kt possible at remainder of city terminals. Winds become light and variable again this evening at all but KJFK and KLGA - where SSW-SW at under 10 kt. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Late tonight-Saturday morning...Isolated-scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are possible. .Saturday afternoon-Sunday...VFR. .Sunday night-Monday...MVFR or lower possible. .Monday night...MVFR possible along with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms isolated thunderstorms. .Tuesday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SCA for ocean seas goes through Friday. Otherwise, sub SCA for other waters. The SCA will be more marginal for ocean Friday night. Dense fog redevelops tonight on the waters and lasts until late Friday morning. Fairly high confidence in increasing S-SW flow pushing ocean seas above 5 ft by Mon afternoon ahead of a cold front, with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5-8 ft Mon night. Ocean seas over 5 ft will likely linger into Tue. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrologic impacts foreseen through the next 7 days. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High tide cycle is occurring now and will allow Advisory to expire at 03Z. Due to high astronomical tides and an easterly swell the next couple of days, water levels may approach minor coastal flood benchmarks, in particular across the south shore back bays of western LI during the evening high tide cycle. Only 1/3 to 3/4 of a foot of surge is needed for minor flooding. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/JM NEAR TERM...JM/JP SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...Goodman/JM HYDROLOGY...Goodman/JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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