Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 040756 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 356 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING OVER NE NJ TOWARD THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ATTM...AND SKIRTING THE REST OF NYC METRO. ANOTHER AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL PA SE TOWARD THE DELMARVA...AND THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON FORECAST IS FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY OUT EAST. THE 00Z OKX SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY LOW/MID LEVELS...SO RAIN MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING INTO MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY DRY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER ABOUT 18Z...AND THE GFS LOOKS DRY AFTER ABOUT 20Z-21Z AS IT TAKES MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO THE NORTH...BUT THESE SOLUTIONS DO NOT LOOK REALISTIC...AS THE 00Z GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE EVENTUAL MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIFT VIA A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST AXIS OF H7-8 FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT THINK ALL AREAS HAVE SOME CHANCE AT SEEING LIGHT RAIN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT NECESSARILY A COMPLETE WASHOUT. SIDED WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES...BUT WITH H7-8 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LAGGING ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE FCST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE FOR THE EARLY EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START...THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN NYC METRO AND 55-6 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST. WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 12Z OR SO WHEN A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPS. THE WIND BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY AS A LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS. CLOUDS LOWER THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THOUGH. TIMING FOR ANY RAIN WOULD BE IN THE MORNING NYC AND WEST...AND IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF NYC. SKIES CLEAR AFTER 23-01Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. .TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OCEAN SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS. THE EASTERN WATERS MAY BUILD BRIEFLY TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. SEAS/WAVES 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE TODAY NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ELSEWHERE. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT COULD REMAIN DRY. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW AVIATION...PW MARINE...PW HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW

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