Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
078 FXUS61 KOKX 051814 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 114 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY. LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...HAS FALLEN ACROSS LI AND CT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH REGIONS. THE HEAVY WET SNOW...COMBINED WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S...WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES FOR NYC METRO...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH LITTLE SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUD VALLEY. OTHERWISE...WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN QUICKLY AS LOW PRESSURE...JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40/70 LAT/LON...CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW HAS COME TO AND END FOR WESTERN LI AND CT...AND WILL END THROUGH 3 PM FOR EASTERN LI AND SE CT...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY BEFORE COMING TO AND END. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY. TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL. OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. SNOW HAS ENDED OVER THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY LATE AFTN. VFR WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. WHERE SNOW CONTINUES...IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS. NW WINDS THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID-AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS MIGHT BE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE OF KTS TOO STRONG THIS AFTN. GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL...AND IF FREQUENT...MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 18Z EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. .MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT. .TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY. .WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO TONIGHT. SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY THAT TIME.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
SNOWFALL WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN LI AND FAR SE CT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ006>008-010>012. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...JC MARINE... HYDROLOGY...NV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.