Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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711 FXUS61 KOKX 200250 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1050 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTROLS THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN STALLS NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AT 02Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE PRODUCING PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL. STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH 04Z WITH THE STORMS MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHOWERS THEN END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE REGION 05Z TO 06Z. THERE WERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS AND NEW LONDON COUNTY CONNECTICUT. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 20-25KT DOWNSLOPING BL WINDS. SO COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO MAYBE OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH BY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH BEST FORCING WITH A PASSING N STREAM SHORT WAVE STAYING WELL TO THE N...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REDUCE DOWN TO 15-20KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COUPLED WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROMOTE SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED...TWEAKED DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DAYTIME HOURS OF THURSDAY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE MAIN INFLUENCE. AT THE LEAST...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP. SO PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A BLEND OF MAV/NAM MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THIS PART OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN RESTORED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOW-MID 70S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT SW. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES. GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT OF UPPER RIDGING...WILL FAVOR THE IDEA THAT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH...OR AT MOST PASSES THROUGH PART OF THE CWA BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH. IN ANY CASE...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BOTH FRONTS NEARBY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME CAPE PRESENT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. VFR FORECAST EXCEPT AT KISP AND KGON WHERE LINGERING FOG/STRATUS HANG ON UNTIL COLD FRONT PASSAGE AROUND 04Z. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER. A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KGON WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WED NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING. .THU...VFR. .FRI...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE. .SAT-SUN...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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WIND AND SEA FORECAST ON TRACK. WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT NEAR SHORE IN THE NY BIGHT REGION...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS...HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT NEAR SHORE AROUND NYC/WESTERN LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE HOWEVER BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN GUSTS SHOULD SLACKEN IN THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE 30-25 PERCENT...EXCEPT 25-30 PERCENT IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...PLUS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE RECEIVED THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER RELATED PRODUCTS FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...DS MARINE...JC/MET FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT

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