Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 142007 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 407 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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DEEP TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WITH PRIMARY LOW PUSHES INTO WESTERN NY/PA OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AS INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW UNDER A STRONG INVERSION SHOULD INCREASE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRATUS OVERNIGHT. PATERNAL FOR ADVECTION FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF CT/LI LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT A STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME. LATER SHIFT WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MID CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. S WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...INCREASING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG AND DEEP NEUTRALLY TILTED UPPER TROUGH TROUGH SLIDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...AND THEN NEGATIVELY TILTING THROUGH THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND CROSSING IN THE EVENING. INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...WITH A 65 TO 75 KT LLJ AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LIKELY...HIGHEST COAST...BUT AN INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT GUSTS MAINLY INTO THE 30S. ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY HAVE ENOUGH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TO OVERCOME THE INVERSION AND BRING A HIGHER FRACTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SURFACE. WITH GULF MOISTURE TAP...INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MID MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. MAIN CONCERN FOR TUE AFT/EVE IS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING A SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SQUALL LINE TRAVERSING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN GUSTS OF 50+ MPH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE HANDLED BY SHORT FUSE ADVISORY/WARNING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUE EVENING. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW ZONES. WITH SHORTWAVE INSTABILITY COMING THROUGH...A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TUE EVENING N&W OF NYC. THIS POSES POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUM...AND WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S SOME ICY ROAD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE GROWING FOR THE ENTIRE COASTAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT FREEZE CONDITIONS COULD BE MET FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...AS THEY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA RECENTLY. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS IN. 850 TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND -8C INLAND...TO -3C TO -6C ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NYC METRO AREA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. WINDS INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WITH WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...THEY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THEY COULD POTENTIALLY BE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WELL INLAND. WHEREAS TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 30S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NYC METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ISOLATED SPOTS MAY DIP TO FREEZING IN THESE AREAS. CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FROST ACROSS ACROSS CERTAIN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND THAT ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...BUT DID NOT MENTION FROST HERE AS WINDS OVERNIGHT PICK UP A BIT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY MEAN A WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND HEAD NORTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT...THE 12Z GFS TRY TO PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. IN BOTH CASES...THE RESULTING COASTAL ARE TOO FAR OFFSHORE...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24HR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STATES. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFT WILL BE GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AND POTENTIAL LATE DAY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST. THE LATTER OF WHICH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. CONDITIONS STEADILY DETERIORATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST SLY FLOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG BENEATH A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS 00Z ALONG THE COAST...AND 02Z TO 06Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING WHICH COULD BE OFF BY SEVERAL HOURS. LLWS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD...DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE. WINDS OF 55 TO 60 KT AROUND 1500 FT ON TUE...STRONGEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TUE IN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY IN THE AFT. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE. DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-35 KT THIS AFT. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED 20-25 KT THIS AFT...BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. WATCHING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE STRATUS THIS AFT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS THIS AFT MAY BE DELAYED BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-35 KT THIS AFT. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-35 KT THIS AFT. WATCHING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE STRATUS THIS AFT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUE AFT-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY WITH MOD TO HEAVY RAIN AND FOG. LLWS PSBL IN AFTN 50-60 KTS 1-2KFT. GUSTY NW-N WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE EVE. .WED-FRI...VFR. SAT...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR IN RAIN.
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&& .MARINE...
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POTENTIAL FOR FOG ON THE WATERS INCREASES TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH EXPECTATION OF VSBY TO DROP BELOW 1 NM OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOIST FLOW. SCA GUST ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA LATE THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MARGINAL GUSTS AND SEAS. GALES POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR OCEAN WATERS AND PERHAPS ALL WATERS AS STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE HELD OFF ON GALE WARNING WITH MARGINAL NATURE OF GALES ON TUESDAY. WAVES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...COMING BELOW 25 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TO ABOVE 25 KT AGAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR THE MOST PART...SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...NEARLY ALL RAIN...EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END LOCAL AMTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND FLASHY SMALL STREAMS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NE NJ WITH ANY TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN/EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS 1 HR FFG IS ONLY AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTIUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTETNIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVEL TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA. THERAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...DW MARINE...JP/NV HYDROLOGY...JP/NV

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