Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231447 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1047 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1045 AM UPDATE... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN CONNECTICUT AS OF LATE MORNING. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BACK IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BUT THEY WERE MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. POTENT SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT WAS DIVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHEAST CT...SHOULD SEE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN CYCLONIC FLOW. WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE DOMINANT. IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHEAST NJ...WHERE A FEW GUSTS OF 45 MPH CAN/T BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS JUST TOO MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING. ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND 30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH SCT -SHRA. INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THU...VFR. NW G30KT. .FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR. .SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR. .SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT. && .MARINE... NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-074-103>108. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340- 345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JC MARINE...DW FIRE WEATHER...STAFF HYDROLOGY...BC/DW

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