Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 020539 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 139 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT POST-FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN OUTLYING AREAS...WITH LOWS 55-60. AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN NYC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS SIMILAR TO OR ONLY A SHADE LESS WARM THAN THOSE OF TODAY...WITH NEAR 90 INVOF NYC AND NE NJ...AND MID/UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A MAV/MET MOS BLEND. AS THE HIGH SETTLES TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMER NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC METRO...60S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND UPPER 50S ONLY IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY DUE TO DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESIDUAL 3FT@8SEC PERIOD SWELLS. IF SWELLS ARE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE...THE RISK COULD BE HIGH ACROSS EASTERN BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HOT AND HUMID CONDS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...AND A DEEP SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE LOW 90S IN/AROUND NYC AND THE URBANIZED AREAS OF NE NJ. MEANWHILE...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND MAY APPROACH 70 ALONG THE CT COAST AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE CWA. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW ZONES AS THAT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT COMES THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND TEMPS FALL BACK SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR NW ZONES...AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ELSEWHERE WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC. DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BUILDS EAST AND WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES WILL FORM AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. LATEST MODELS HAVE THE LOW STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...AND THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH EACH PASSING LOW. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME LOOK TO FALL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS BACK TO THE SW SUNDAY MORNING. SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH LATE DAY SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES POSSIBLE AT KEWR/KTEB. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU... .SUN NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT S/SW FLOW. .MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS LATE. .MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S WIND...SHIFTING TO W. PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS MON NIGHT. .WED...VFR. W FLOW. .THU...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE... SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVSY. INCREASING SW FLOW COULD RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W AND PASSES TO THE N. && .HYDROLOGY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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