Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 170747 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 347 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SO FAR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING IN THE WARNING AREA...THAT CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPERATURES JUST TOUCHING 32...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW...IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA BEFORE BEGINNING TO RISE JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE FREEZE WARNING UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING. WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING CLOUD COVER...OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...AT A MINIMUM. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND 900-875 HPA. SO HAVE USED MIXING DOWN FROM THERE...BLENDED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. EXPECT READINGS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FORECAST. NOT WANTING TO HAVE UP MULTIPLE FROST FREEZE HEADLINES...WILL HOLD OFF IN HOISTING A FREEZE WATCH FOR ROCKLAND/N WESTCHESTER AND W PORTIONS OF UNION/ESSEX/BERGEN COUNTIES...AND A FROST ADVISORY FOR LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CT...S WESTCHESTER AND THE E PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES IN NE NJ FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET DAY-SHIFT ISSUE WHEN THEY TAKE DOWN THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING. FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT READINGS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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00Z/17 MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO TREND TO THE DRIER SIDE NOW WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH ONLY LIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE TAPERED POPS BACK FRI NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING GENERALLY OFFSHORE...AND JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN END OF LONG ISLAND...WHILE REMOVING POPS THEN ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS AND TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA THEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY MONDAY...KEEPING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE EAST TUES-WED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS MON NIGHT...WITH ONLY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH CENTRAL NY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUES-TUES NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE PASSING LOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE WAKE WHILE BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF WED AND THURS. WILL SEE INCREASING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS AFT 00Z FRI...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. N/NNE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 KT THROUGH AROUND 12Z. WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AFT 12Z...AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT AFT 03Z FRIDAY. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 080-100 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 080-100 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. .SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. .MONDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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WITH EXPECTATION OF GUSTS ON ALL WATERS TO AROUND 25 KT...HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA TO COVER ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON FRIDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FEATURE AND ONLY MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17: EWR - 30 IN 1980 FORECAST LOW - 32 BDR - 30 IN 1962 FORECAST LOW - 31 NYC - 28 IN 1875 FORECAST LOW - 34 LGA - 32 IN 1980 FORECAST LOW - 35 JFK - 33 IN 1980 FORECAST LOW - 33 ISP - 30 IN 2005 FORECAST LOW - 30
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012. NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>071-073- 078>081. NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...SEARS AVIATION...MPS MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS CLIMATE...

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