Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280613 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 213 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AN ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING IN COOLER...DRIER AIR FOR THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE DECOUPLING OCCURS. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC NORTH AND WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH... DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS...NEAR KBDR AND KISP. FRONT WILL CLEAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS 330-350 AT AROUND 10 KT...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 18 KT MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFT. FLOW BACKS A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK TROF...BUT MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON... .THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR. .SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. && .MARINE... SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU TONIGHT. 5 FT S/SSE SWELLS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PEAK AROUND 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHEST EAST...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEARSHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY UP TO 20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING PROB OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SEAS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THIS MORNING...PEAKING SURF AT GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS WILL BE FROM AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT...WITH SURF GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS/NV SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...DW MARINE...JMC/FIG HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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