Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 020002 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 802 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL PASS TO THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MAY THEN IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH DRYING MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF NYC METRO/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ. THEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS SE CT AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LI. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC BANDING WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LLJ WILL SEND THE RAIN BAND WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GET AS FAR WEST AS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ...BUT THE FORCING LOOKS TO WEAKEN WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT...WITH 1/2 TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. THE SREF AND GEFS SUPPORT THE OPERATIONS RUNS...BUT ARE NOT AS FART WEST WITH THE RAIN SHIELD. THE CLOUD COVER...NORTHERLY FLOW...AND RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL KEEP LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A DISSIPATING RAIN BAND IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF LI DURING THE MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A N/NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT OVERCAST CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT. GUSTY NE WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RETROGRADES BRIEFLY WESTWARD THU MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC THU NIGHT WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THU WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THU NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S AT THE COAST. THIS IS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A HIPRES RIDGE OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP THE WX DRY ON FRI. WEIGHTED TEMPS TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM12 AND MET GUIDANCE TO THE THE INFLUENCE OF THE MARITIME AIRMASS. UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN AB WILL DRAW A CDFNT THRU SAT. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AROUND AN INCH LIKELY...WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BUILDING PW/S TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. PW/S DROP TO BLW A HALF INCH SUN AND H85 TEMPS FALL 10C. DRY...BREEZY AND COOLER IS THEREFORE THE FCST. CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE UPR 50S...SO SCT FAIR WX CU POSSIBLE DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE. SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS MON AND TUE WITH A 520S DAM H5 LOW SETTING UP OVER WRN ON. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT LOW RAIN CHC WITH THIS...SO RETAINED A 20-30 POP. BEST CHC WILL BE WITH THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT...WHICH LOOKS TO BE AROUND TUE-WED. TEMPS SUN-WED A BLEND OF THE GMOS/MEX/MEN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SE OF THE REGION THURSDAY. A MOIST LOW LEVEL N/NE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY FROM NW TO SE THU AFT/EVE AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. ON AND OFF -RA DZ WILL CONTINUE OVER LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER WEST...A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RA DZ POSSIBLE BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY VARY ACROSS THE 040 MAG DIRECTION THROUGH THU MORN. WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY LEFT OF 040 MAG IN THE MORNING...VEERING TO RIGHT IN AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY -RA DZ. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU AFTERNOON COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 040 MAG THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHER CONFIDENCE THU AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY -RA DZ. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU AFTERNOON COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY LEFT OF 040 MAG IN THE MORNING...VEERING TO RIGHT IN AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY -RA DZ. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU AFTERNOON COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY -RA DZ. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU AFTERNOON COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY -RA DZ. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU AFTERNOON COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT FROM LOW TO HIGH END MVFR THU AFTERNOON COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THU NIGHT...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT IN THE EVENING. .FRI...VFR. LGT SE WND. .SAT...RAIN - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 15-20 KT. .SUN-MON...VFR. && .MARINE... NORTHEAST FLOW WAS STRENGTHENING EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID TO WESTERN ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. THE SCA CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS...WITH THE OCEAN WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE SOUND AND SURROUNDING LI BAYS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THU. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF N/NE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT ON THE OCEAN AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE THU MORNING INTO THE AFT, CONDITIONS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE FROM THE NORTH. EVEN THEN SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT WITH A LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL. ON THE OCEAN...SCA COND CAN BE EXPECTED FRI THRU NEXT WED...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE FOR PORTIONS OF MON. ELSEWHERE...25KT WINDS POSSIBLE SAT-SUN BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A CDFNT. OTHERWISE THEY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT INTO THU ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS NEW LONDON COUNTY CT LATE TONIGHT. AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE ON SAT. A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330- 335-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW NEAR TERM...MET/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...NV MARINE...JMC/MET/DW HYDROLOGY...

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