Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 020618 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 218 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW RIDES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. COOL MOIST FLOW IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN OVERCAST/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG...WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A PD OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POP. MID LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT MID TO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING... CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME. BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS INTO THE MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS AND AREAS OF DZ. CONDS MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. SOME QUESTIONS WHETHER RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS AFT 12Z...BEST CHC N OF NYC...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TEMPOS S OF KHPN/KBDR/KGON AND WILL ADDRESS FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH FRI... .MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR. .WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/ LOW CLOUDS.
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&& .MARINE... OCEAN SEAS ARE RUNNING 5-6 FT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED. PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$

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