Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280831 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 331 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PVA MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 30S. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WITH FLAT NW TO SE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED. MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS...NW WINDS LIGHTEN. AS FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...MUCH DEPENDS ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN COLDER MAV AND ECS NUMBERS AND WARMER MET NUMBERS. EITHER WAY...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH READINGS IN THE 20S AND TEENS. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT ONE MORE COLD DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S AS CLOUDS PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ENSUING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH POLAR JET ENERGY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MON...AND ANOTHER WED AFT/EVE. LIGHT TO MODERATE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION PRECEDES EACH SYSTEM WITH A BRIEF MIX OF FROZEN PCPN AT THE ONSET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE THERMO PROFILES WARM. SUN MORNING AND TUE NIGHT ARE THE TIMES OF INTEREST. THE LATTER IS POTENTIALLY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE TWO AS IT PRECEDED BY A TRANSIENT 1040-1045 MB HIGH MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WARM SECTOR RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE EACH COLD FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART...LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THE EXCEPTION BEING TUE FOLLOWING THE MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY. VFR. NW WIND GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY 14Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE DAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .FRI NGT-SUN...VFR. .SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. .TUE...VFR. && .MARINE... GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND TO AROUND 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 KT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING. EXPECTING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO MID AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL...AROUND 5 FT...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN AND EASTERN SOUND...AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS THROUGH TODAY ONLY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WIND AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. OCEAN SEAS/WINDS COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN INTO MON. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 340-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...DW/PW AVIATION...MET MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...PW

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