Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 290231 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1031 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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02Z IR SAT IMAGERY INDICATING SKIES CONTINUING TO SCATTER OUT...WITH ONLY FEW MID LVL CLOUDS LINGERING OVER CT. REST OF THE AREA ALREADY CLEAR...WITH THE EXPECTATION THE ENTIRE AREA BECOMES CLR BY 06Z. OCNL GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DIMINISH BY 03Z...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT OVER LAND. TEMPS AND DEW PTS GENERALLY ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS MADE...KEEPING LOW TEMPS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/... 1020S HI RIGHT OVER THE CWA. LGT WINDS AND DRY WX. WEAK RETURN FLOW FRI NGT COULD BRING IN ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTENING HOWEVER...UP TO AROUND H9...SO THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH SOME STRATUS FLOATING AROUND. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING FOG IN THE FCST ATTM AS A RESULT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE REGION DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED. N-NW FLOW...DIRECTION MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC IS GENERALLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. THE EXCEPTION IS AROUND THE NYC METRO INCLUDING LGA/EWR/JFK WHERE GUSTS ARE CONTINUING LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH 4-5Z. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-E WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING S-SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. .SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.
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&& .MARINE...
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SWELL STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT MIDNIGHT. THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL FRI MRNG. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 2O KT THRU TNGT. HIPRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI SO LGT WINDS WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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SWELL GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT SOUTHEASTERN LONG ISLAND DUE TO THE DECREASING SWELL COMPONENT...WITH WAVES LESS THAN 5 FT NOW OVER THAT REGION. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 2 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE ALONG WITH SWELL IMPACTS. RIP CURRENT THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS WELL OVERNIGHT.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ081. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...MMD MARINE...BC/JMC HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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