Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 260453 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1253 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...THEN STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASING TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE FLOATING AROUND TOWARDS MORNING. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE 50S. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN THAT ENVIRONMENT. SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS. AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND BY AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 20-25KT END EARLY IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND. .WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR STRATUS. LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. .THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT. && .MARINE... MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT AT 44069 SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM. ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE. FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JC MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/DW HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW

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