Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 152347 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 747 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL IVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS AND WEAKEN TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST BASED ON INITIAL CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS...EVENTUALLY LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WITH THE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO START...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE EFFECTIVE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. POPS INCREASE LATE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS NEAR NYC AND N/W BUT MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP AND LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE LOST AND THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST. OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3 GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND FROM RAINFALL...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO GO INTO THE EVAPORATION OF WATER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHICH YIELD A RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THERE IS LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY...BUT DUE TO AN INCREASING SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOURD...THIS COULD BE ELEVATED TO A MODERATE RISK LATE IN THE DAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AT NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES. CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WED-THU NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP VALUES INTO THE 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. NAM/MOSGUIDE BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A MOSGUIDE/WPC BLEND THEREAFTER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OVERALL WITH TEMPS. TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SAT-MON AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 20/00Z ECMWF RUN WAS AN OUTLIER IN RELATION TO PRECIP ON SATURDAY. 20/12Z HAS COME INTO LINE WITH THE GFS/CMC LENDING TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AHEAD THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LIGHT S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT...AND EXPECTING VFR CONDS IN ANY -RA THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS VEER TO THE NW AT 6-8 KT BEFORE BACKING TO THE W-SW FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LIGHT FLOW...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 260 TO 320 MAG. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER 16Z TUESDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. .FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS WED-SAT WITH MAINLY SUB SCA CRITERIA EXPECTED. WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PASSING TO THE EAST...SWELLS INCREASE WED WITH OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS WELL...WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE AGAIN TO 5 FT. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/LN NEAR TERM...JM/DW SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...LN AVIATION...MPS MARINE...JM/LN HYDROLOGY...JM/LN

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