Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 091750 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 150 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...THEN STALL NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
17Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER WESTERN NY WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA. ALOFT...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING WEAK SHORTWAVE TO ROUND THE BASE THIS AFTN...BUT OVERALL BETTER FORCING IS TO THE NORTH. ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALREADY POPPING UP AS OF 17Z...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ON THROUGH THE AFTN. LAPS DATA SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES OF UP OVER 1000 J/KG OVER INTERIOR AREAS...THOUGH MINIMAL INSTABILITY OVER NYC METRO WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. SHEAR BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE...BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS. AS SUCH...SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISO STRONG TO SVR STORMS OVER INTERIOR REGIONS ON THROUGH 00Z...WITH LESSER OF A THREAT AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S. HUMIDITY LEVELS COME DOWN AS DEWPOINTS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPS AND DEW PTS ON TRACK FOR THE AFTN. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ON ALL ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT AS THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT. COVERAGE WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED HOWEVER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI...BUT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH YET TO PASS THROUGH...LIKE 00Z GFS IDEA OF ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS VIA DIFFERENTIAL HEATING LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS. EXPECT DRY WX TO CONTINUE THEREAFTER INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH DOMINATES...AND AS ANY APPROACHING SHORTWAVES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING GIVES WAY WILL HAVE INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. MEDIUM RANGE NWP MODELS STILL SUGGEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION BEGINNING LATE DAY SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE. MON COULD BE AN ACTIVE WX DAY IF THE 00Z GFS IS CORRECT...WITH AN APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN A HIGH PW AND LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING AND/OR SEVERE WX. TIMING OF ALL THE INGREDIENTS WILL HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT...SO GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE DID NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVG. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR. SW FLOW...TURNING S AT COASTAL TERMINALS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME SW 4-8 KT THIS EVENING. AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WINDS SHIFT TO THE N. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. MAIN TIMING FOR ANY TSTMS AT THE LOCAL TERMINALS WILL BE FROM 0-6Z. BY THEN...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION. AMDS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION. AMDS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION. AMDS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION. AMDS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION. AMDS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. .SUNDAY-MONDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TODAY...AND TONIGHT ON THE CENTRAL/EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT OCEAN SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AT 5-7 FT TODAY. ONCE A COLD FRONT FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN...OCEAN SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT BY TONIGHT W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...AND BY THU MORNING FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK. THEN EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING WINDS/SEAS NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT QPF OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MON AS A POTENTIAL DAY FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JP/SEARS SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...MPS MARINE...GOODMAN/JP HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.