Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 041012 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 612 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/... FCST GOING RATHER AS EXPECTED. HIGH CAPE/INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A PRONOUNCED JET STREAK PRODUCED A MASSIVE SEVERE STORM THAT IS MOVING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY IS EAST OF CT AND LONG ISLAND BY 900 AM. && .SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY INTO THE EARLY AFTN...THEN ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO HEATING. NCAR ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST WITH FOCUS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE KEPT IT AT ISOLATED ALL LOCATIONS AS HAVE BEEN TOO BUSY WITH SEVERE TO FULLY ANALYZE NWP YET. DRY...LESS HUMID AND NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY/ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY WILL BE KEY TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST 00Z MODELS OFFER SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...BUT A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS IS THE FLATEST AND SLOWEST AS IT DOES NOT REALLY DEVELOP THE LOW UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY AMPLIFIES BEHIND THE MAIN ONE. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY AND DEVELOPS THE LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AND MOVES IT JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GEFS ARE A BIT FASTER...WITH THE MEAN LOW TRACK AND TIMING SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS THEN DECREASE TO CHANCE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS TIMING BECOMES CLEARER...EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF POPS. THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THUNDER HAS MOVED EAST OF ISP...SO JUST KGON LEFT TO BE IMPACTED BY THUNDER. ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS NOW OVER THE CITY TERMINALS SHOULD MOVE EAST BY 11Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS AND 5 KT OR LESS ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF COVERAGE AND TIMING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WED THROUGH SAT... .TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT. .WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW. .FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE. .SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS. && .MARINE... OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TONIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON SATURDAY ON THE OCEAN. && .HYDROLOGY... A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL THAT DO DEVELOPS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. && .EQUIPMENT... TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TONGUE NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...TONGUE LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...BC MARINE...TONGUE HYDROLOGY...TONGUE EQUIPMENT...

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