Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 171732 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A broad area of high pressure builds in from the west today. The high will remain in control through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Only a few slight adjustments with regard to near term trends, otherwise forecast on track. At the surface, high pressure to the west continues to draw closer as the winds are now subsiding. This afternoon the winds go variable to a light WSW direction with high pressure settling on top of the region. Temps likely only topping out in the upper 50s to near 60 for most locations this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... After upper level ridging builds into the region early in the period, a weak mid level shortwave approaches late in this timeframe. At the surface high pressure gradually slides south of the region. Good radiational cooling conditions likely tonight across interior with a favorable waa aloft setup for decoupling; allowing temps to fall into the lower to mid 30s once again. Frost conditions are likely once again late tonight across the interior of southern CT and for the suburbs NW of NYC metro. Will wait to hoist any Frost Advisories for after final collaboration with surrounding offices. For city and coast, increasing potential for mixing as the night wears on in strengthening return flow, which may keep or bounce temps into the 40s. Lower 50s likely for the NYC metro. Sunny skies and a gradual moderation in temps begins on Wednesday as SW return flow develops around the high to the south. Temperatures should warm to slightly above seasonable levels in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridging both aloft and at the surface prevails through much of the period. Only a weak and dry cold front passage occurs Thursday night as the flow aloft turns cyclonic for a short period. The next chance of rainfall doesn`t appear to arrive until Monday night with the approach of the next cold front. Expect abundant sunshine throughout the period with daytime highs averaging around 7-10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure remains just southwest of the region through Wednesday. VFR through the TAF period. Winds gradually back to the west- southwest this afternoon. Speeds remain less than 10 kt through the period. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday-Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... The winds will continue to weaken through the late morning and early afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. High pressure prevails through the upcoming weekend with sub SCA conditions. The only exception is that SCA conditions may be approached Thursday night on the eastern ocean waters ahead of a weak cold front with SW winds gusting up to 20 kt. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues expected through this weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/JE NEAR TERM...JE SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...BC MARINE...JC/JE HYDROLOGY...JC/NV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.