Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 051500 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A BAND OF CIRRUS HAS SET UP FROM NERN NJ INTO WRN LI. FCST UPDATED FOR THIS. ALSO BUMPED UP SEAS ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80. THERE IS A MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO 3-4 FT LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE DAY SHOWERS SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ...THAT COULD SLOWLY DRIFT INTO PARTS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS HINGES ON IDEAL PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES AS FCST BY THAT MODEL...INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...TOPPED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THAT REGION AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD AND PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THE 06Z GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE SLOWER TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE NORTHWARD...WHICH KEEPS THE JET STREAK AND SFC THETA-E RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN NJ AND PHILADELPHIA...WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AS SFC RIDGING FROM OFFSHORE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THERE. SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO LINE UP PERFECTLY...WILL NOT MENTION IN FCST...BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING IN THE LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW- NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY (PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY. VFR TODAY WITH FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SE SEABREEZE LIKELY FOR KEWR/KTEB AND S SEABREEZE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT POSSIBLE. .TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS. .TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. .WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW. .THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE. && .MARINE... OCEAN SEAS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FT TODAY. 44017 HAS BEEN STEADY AT AROUND 4.6 FT THIS MRNG. UPDATED THE FCST TO INDICATE AROUND 4 FT HOWEVER. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...NV MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.