Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281900 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 300 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRES WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS BUILDS NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ANY CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND CAN EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS...THIS WILL SET UP EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND FOR THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS SFC TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO THE SFC DEWPOINT. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MOST ELSEWHERE. LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL DROP TO NEAR 50 IN SOME SPOTS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE FROM THE 50S DURING THE DAY TO THE LOW TO MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME AFTERNOON MID- LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH REGARD TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BUILDING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE NEXT WEEK. SUBTLE DETAILS OBVIOUSLY HARD TO PIN POINT...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...BUILDING HUMIDITY AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. INITIAL WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY...WITH WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. LATEST GFS THEN INDICATES BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE THURSDAY FLATTENS THIS RIDGE SOMEWHAT...BUT LOOKS TO BUILD RIGHT BACK FRIDAY. ECMWF INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY GET CUT OFF UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE LOCAL WEATHER. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CANADIAN/NH...MODEL CONSENSUS POINT TO THE RIDGE LIKELY SUPPRESSES TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WELL TO THE SOUTH NEXT WEEK...BUT PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS FOR LATEST FORECAST AND TRACK INFORMATION. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT A DEEP LIFTING MECHANISM TO BREAK THE CAP. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO 70. THIS IS ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO A LIGHT NW-NE FLOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SEABREEZES AT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN AND PROBABLY KEWR/KTEB. DOUBTS INCREASING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF SEABREEZE AWAY FROM CT COAST...SO GENERALLY DELAYED ANOTHER 2 HOURS AT KJFK/KLGA AND REMOVED FROM KEWR AND KTEB. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING...AND REMAIN SO UNTIL SEABREEZES DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY NIGHT....MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. .MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. && .MARINE...
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HIGH PRES WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...AND THEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF NY HARBOR...ENHANCED LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES COULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WHILE SEAS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 FT OR LESS. A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. AS SUCH...STILL EXPECT MAINLY SUB- SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH FULL MOON APPROACHING ON SATURDAY...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...MPS/PW HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPS/PW

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