Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 141452 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1052 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A wave of low pressure passes to the south and east of the area today, followed by weak high pressure tonight. A cold front then moves through from west to east Sunday night followed by building high pressure that will remain over the area through late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Back edge of light rain progressing across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut as a wave of low pressure passes to the south and east by early afternoon. Rain is expected to clear far eastern areas by early afternoon. Although rainfall chances will gradually decrease as the wave moves farther east, remnant moisture beneath the inversion will maintain cloudy skies. Despite cloudy conditions, temperatures will remain a few degrees above climatological normals.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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With the loss of diurnal heating and strengthening inversion, expect the redevelopment of patchy drizzle and fog as a warm front approaches the area overnight. Temperatures will remain above climatological normals in warm advection. By late morning or early afternoon on Sunday, the warm front will shift north of the area allowing for deeper mixing and perhaps scattering of clouds, particularly west of NYC. Strengthening southwesterly flow will allow high temperatures to rise to near 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Although overnight temperatures will initially start out above normal, a cold front will move through from west to east allowing a sharp decrease in temperatures, though stronger winds will likely hinder temperatures from lowering to climatological values despite the cooler and drier air mass. Rain chances will lag behind the actual front associated more with a strong upper vorticity maximum. At the moment, the mid to upper levels are expected to remain somewhat dry, which will likely prevent heavier rainfall from developing.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure builds in for the remainder of the week, with gusty winds possible on Monday in strong cold advection following the frontal passage. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal Monday into Tuesday before slowly rebounding through the week as the high pressure center shifts offshore, allowing a return to warm advection in southwesterly flow. Otherwise, conditions will remain dry. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A weak wave of low pressure will move slowly north towards Long Island this morning and then northeast this evening. A cold front approaches late Sunday. MVFR/IFR conditions in stratus. Most of the drizzle and rain has tapered off, except for locations east of NYC. Conditions improve to MVFR late this morning/early afternoon and should remain MVFR for the late afternoon. Can not rule out a period of VFR conditions for NYC/NJ terminals late this afternoon. Any improvement may only occur for a few hours, then MVFR/IFR conditions in stratus and fog return once again tonight. Light ne winds this morning, possibly giving way to light s/se sea breezes along the coastal terminals this afternoon. Light south winds tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Sunday into Sunday Night...Improving to VFR in the morning, then chance of showers at night with MVFR conditions. SW winds G25KT in afternoon and evening...shifting to NW Sun Night. .Monday...Chc early AM showers and MVFR/IFR, becoming VFR. NW winds G20-25KT. .Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... A weak gradient will exist through tonight with light winds on the waters. SCA seas will continue into this afternoon with se swells around 5ft. These swells may fall below 5 ft tonight into Sunday morning...so have held off on extending SCA past 00z tonight. SCA winds and seas expected to build on the ocean in SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front Sunday aft/eve, and then likely with NW flow in its wake Sun Night into Mon morning. A brief period of SCA gusts are possible on all waters...pre and post frontal as well. After a brief respite during he day Monday...a period of SCA winds and seas is possible Mon eve/night via a brief northerly reinforcing push of cooler air. Thereafter...tranquil conditions are expected from Tuesday into the end of the week as high pressure build in. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues expected through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD NEAR TERM...MD/DW SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...MD AVIATION...BC/NV MARINE...NV HYDROLOGY...MD

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