Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 011840 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 140 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THEN PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH WARMING TO BRING A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. STILL EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/COASTAL WESTCHESTER AND FAIRFIELD. EXPECT AT LEAST 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW ELSEWHERE...AND WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING GOOD BANDING POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST AND SNOW RATIOS OF 12 TO 1...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO A SHORT-FUSED WINTER STORM WARNING. WILL BE WATCHING NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS OVER SE PA AND NORTHERN NJ INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THIS BANDING SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP...BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND AND NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. COULD SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS MONDAY WITH GUSTS BY AFTERNOON UP TO 25-35 MPH WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY TUE EVENING AS SNOW...BUT WITH INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TEMPS WILL WARM TUE NIGHT WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM S TO N. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH IT THROUGH AT THE SURFACE. CLIMATOLOGY SAYS NO WITH THE LOW SO FAR TO THE NW...SO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MAY BE TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...DO THINK TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK. THIS...IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WED FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUNDARY LATE WED NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM RIDING ALONG THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO THU...ALTHOUGH THE TREND HAS BEEN S OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. COLD WEATHER ALSO RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND BOUNDARY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER BUT THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WEAK LOW PRES WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TODAY...AND PASS S OF LI TONIGHT. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY FALLING TO IFR THEN LIFR THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW TRANSITIONS TO FREEZING RAIN AT KJFK/KISP AROUND 2Z...MAYBE AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER...AROUND 3Z KLGA/KEWR...MAYBE AN HOUR EARLIER...AND AT 4Z AT KTEB...IF AT ALL. SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW AT KSWF/KHPN/KBDR/KGON. PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FROM 5-7Z FROM W TO E +/- AN HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE SNOW ENDS. MOST LIKELY TOTAL RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS BY 06Z MON: KGON...4-6. KSWF/KHPN/KBDR...3-6. KEWR/KTEB/KLGA...3-5. KJFK/KISP...2-3. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...CONDITIONS TRANSITION TO VFR BY AROUND 12Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND...S-SSW WINDS AROUND 8-12KT NEAR THE COAST TO START...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH AROUND 21Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE SNOW ENDS WINDS GO SW THEN W AT UNDER 10 KT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN BECOME NW AND INCREASE TO 13-18G22-27KT BY AROUND MID MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30 KT LIKELY INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. .TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW. .TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. SNOW...CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN RAIN LATE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF. LLWS LIKELY. .WEDNESDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN - FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT KSWF. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION...OTHERWISE VFR. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...SHOULD HAVE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING AS ALL SNOW INTO THURSDAY. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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TRANQUIL TODAY WITH DEPARTING HI PRES...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS MON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT. CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUE WITH TRANSIENT HI PRES...THEN SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS POSSIBLE WED AND ESPECIALLY THU WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO LBW SCA LEVELS ON FRI.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH ALL OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE EITHER FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION...NO IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE THROUGH WED. MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A MELTING SNOW PACK COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ005>012. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG NEAR TERM...FIG/GOODMAN SHORT TERM...FIG LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...FIG

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