Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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947 FXUS61 KOKX 192325 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 725 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTROLS THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN STALLS NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AT 22Z...AND THE WARM FRONT SEEMS TO HAVE WASHED OUT. THE AREA IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE CAPE...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH. UPDATED TO LOWER...AND REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BETTER CHANCE WILL BE NORTHERN SECTIONS AS CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST. SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 20-25KT DOWNSLOPING BL WINDS. SO COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO MAYBE OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH BY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH BEST FORCING WITH A PASSING N STREAM SHORT WAVE STAYING WELL TO THE N...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REDUCE DOWN TO 15-20KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COUPLED WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROMOTE SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED...TWEAKED DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DAYTIME HOURS OF THURSDAY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE MAIN INFLUENCE. AT THE LEAST...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP. SO PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A BLEND OF MAV/NAM MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THIS PART OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN RESTORED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOW-MID 70S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT SW. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES. GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT OF UPPER RIDGING...WILL FAVOR THE IDEA THAT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH...OR AT MOST PASSES THROUGH PART OF THE CWA BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH. IN ANY CASE...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BOTH FRONTS NEARBY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME CAPE PRESENT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT ACROSS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. MAINLY A VFR FORECAST...HOWEVER VLIFR IN FG AT KGON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. IFR MAY RETURN BRIEFLY TO KISP AND KBDR AROUND 1Z AND LINGER UNTIL THE FRONT PASSAGE. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE CITY TERMINALS BUT A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STORM IS AT KSWF BEFORE THE FRONT. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HERE IS FOR A BRIEF SHOWER. MAINLY LIGHT SSW-SE WINDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS BECOME THEN BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONT PASSSAGE. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD PREVAIL AFTER 01Z UNTIL FRONT PASSAGE. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WED NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING. .THU...VFR. .FRI...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE. .SAT-SUN...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... WIND AND SEA FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED THE WEATHER TO REMOVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT NEAR SHORE IN THE NY BIGHT REGION...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS...HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT NEAR SHORE AROUND NYC/WESTERN LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE HOWEVER BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER... WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN GUSTS SHOULD SLACKEN IN THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE 30-25 PERCENT...EXCEPT 25-30 PERCENT IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...PLUS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE RECEIVED THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER RELATED PRODUCTS FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...DS MARINE...JC/MET FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT

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