Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231337 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 937 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A mesoscale convective system will pass south of the region today. High pressure will then build in through Friday. High pressure will remain over the region through the weekend before moving offshore early next week. A cold front will impact the region during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast on track with just minor adjustments to reflect latest observations. otherwise...All of the model data keeps the mesoscale convective system currently over Ohio and West Virginia south of the county warning area today. There will be some differential positive vorticity advection however as the upper level trough passes through the area. This may produce a few showers. Convective available potential energy is low per the model output, so only included slight chances for thunderstorms during peak heating this afternoon. Temperatures were a blend of the MAV, MET and Superblend. There is a moderate risk for rip current development today on ocean beaches due to residual swell. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... High pressure builds into the northeastern continental United States tonight and Friday. A GFS time series for New York City shows steadily rising pressure beginning around 00Z. With precipitable water falling to around three quarters of an inch and subsidence, the forecast is for dry weather. The Superblend was used for temperatures, as the model guidance was in good agreement. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The first half of the long term period will remain dry as high pressure remains over the region through the weekend. Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. In addition, a light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land temp and relative cooler water temps will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s. The high moves offshore Sunday night, giving way to an approaching cold front Monday night. This front will slowly works its way across the region Tuesday through Wednesday. Will continue to carry chance POPs for showers and thunderstorms as the front passes through. Drier weather returns to end the week as high pressure returns. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Low pressure will pass to the south of the terminals this afternoon. High pressure then begins to build in from the west overnight. VFR through the TAF period. Light and variable winds this morning will become SE at 5-10 kt through early afternoon. Winds then shift to the NE at around 5 kt tonight with high pressure building in. With the low tracking well south of the area, the best shower potential exists mainly for south coast terminals. It is possible much of the shower activity stays south of all terminals. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Light south/southwest winds will turn to the south/southeast by afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Light east/northeast winds will turn to the southeast by afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: Light south/southwest winds will turn to the south/southeast by afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Friday-Sunday...VFR. .Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers/thunderstorms late.
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&& .MARINE... Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels through Friday with high pressure building into the region. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters this weekend and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop. && .HYDROLOGY... A tenth of an inch or less of rain is expected today. Dry weather is forecast tonight and Friday. The next chance for precip will be Tuesday through Wednesday as a cold front passes through. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC NEAR TERM...BC/JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...FEB/CB/PW MARINE...BC/JMC HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC

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