Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 161807 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 207 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. THEN HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING EAST OF THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LESS FORCING FOR LIFT GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH CLEARING THE AREA AND NOW SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...WHERE IT IS ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVERGENCE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ITS VICINITY...ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND OFFSHORE. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE A HIGHER COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH STILL MOIST LOW LEVELS. WITH GROUNDS WET FROM RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER CONSIDERING THE WINDS ARE LIGHT SO THE DOWNSLOPE WILL NOT BE AS EFFICIENT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE MORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...GIVING THE REGION MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ADVECT IN COLDER AIR. IN ADDITION...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE SOMEWHAT EFFICIENT AS WELL. THEREFORE...PREFERRED LOWER MAV GUIDANCE COMPARED TO MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 50S...LOWEST FOR RURAL INTERIOR SECTIONS AND HIGHEST NEAR NYC. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT CENTERS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHTER WITH THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT DECREASE AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASING AS WELL. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD EASILY GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AS LAND TEMPERATURES EXCEED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING SUBSIDENCE TO BE THAT STRONG...SO THINKING THAT SOME DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12 AND GMOS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READING ALONG THE COAST BUT OVERALL MOSTLY LOWER 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA STARTS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO OUR REGION. AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US. HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST TONIGHT. VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY VARY TO THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10 KT. LIGHT NW OR VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NE WEDNESDAY MORNING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS REMAIN VARIABLE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS REMAIN VARIABLE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS REMAIN VARIABLE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS REMAIN VARIABLE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS REMAIN VARIABLE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...SO NOT GOING WITH SCA AT THIS TIME. SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST WITH SHOWERS...BUT WILL BE MOSTLY OFFSHORE BY THIS POINT. NO RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/24 NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM/JC LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...DS MARINE...JM/JC/24 HYDROLOGY...24/JM

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