Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280900 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 400 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND USHERS IN VERY COLD AIR STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN PASSES NEAR THE REGION ON MONDAY. MORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LIGHT SNOW FINALLY DIMINISHING OVER SOUTHERN CT AND MOST OF SUFFOLK COUNTY. ACTIVITY IS BEST DETECTED BY THE LATEST RAP. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS DISSIPATES BEFORE SUNRISE. THE KOKX RADAR SHOWED AN ENHANCED AREA PASSING RIGHT OVER THE OFFICE WHERE 1/2" WAS MEASURED AT 06Z. WOULD SUSPECT THAT THE TWIN FORK MAY HAVE PICKED UP AN INCH. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ENSURE DOT FOLKS ARE AWARE OF THIS. WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW.LIGHT SNOW FINALLY DIMINISHING OVER SOUTHERN CT AND MOST OF SUFFOLK COUNTY. ACTIVITY WAS BEST DETECTED BY THE LATEST RAP. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS DISSIPATES BEFORE SUNRISE. THE KOKX RADAR SHOWED AN ENHANCED AREA PASSING RIGHT OVER THE OFFICE WHERE 1/2" WAS MEASURED AT 06Z. WOULD SUSPECT THAT THE TWIN FORK MAY HAVE PICKED UP AN INCH OT POSSIBLY 2. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED TO ENSURE DOT FOLKS ARE AWARE OF THIS. WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW. SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR WEST OF BDR TO ISP. EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY. DESPITE SUN...WINDS KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND HIGH ALBEDO FROM THE FRESH SNOW KEEPS MAX TEMPS CONFINED TO THE MID 20S. USED 1-2 DEGREES BELOW THE LOWER OF THE COMBINED MOS. APPARENT TEMPS (WIND CHILL) IN THE LOWER TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT. SKC AND LIGHT WIND. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO INLAND. MID TEENS FOR THE CITY AND AROUND 10 ON LONG ISLAND. AGAIN...THE LOWER OF THE MOS WAS USED AND LOWERED 1-2 DEGREES FROM THERE. FEEL THESE MIGHT STILL BE TOO WARM...BUT USUALLY LOOSE WHEN TRYING TO OUT FORECAST MOS TOO MUCH. WAA ADVECTION SET UP ON THURSDAY WITH CLOUD COVER THICKENING AND LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT TO BE OVC BY MID AFTN EVEN OUT EAST. TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD - AROUND 30...LOWER 30`S NY METRO AND LONG ISLAND. KEEP POPS JUST WEST OF ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM PER CONSENSUS OF LATEST NWP INCLUDING SREF. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE. TWO SYSTEMS - THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY`S CLIPPER SYSTEM AS NWP HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. EXPECTING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL. HAVE KEPT THIS MOSTLY SNOW - THOUGH A WET SNOW FOR THE COAST. PROBABILISTIC SNOW GRAPHICS AND DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT: WEATHER.GOV/OKX/WINTER CLIPPER PULLS AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MASSIVE DROP IN TEMPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR A FLASH FREEZING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. FCST MID TEENS IN THE CITY BY 7 PM. WINDS HOWL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AMBIENT TEMPS TO NEAR ZERO INLAND WITH MID SINGLE DIGITS AT THE COAST. LOOKS LIKELY FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES !! JUMPING TO NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF TEXAS. NWP HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. HAVE RAISED POPS ALONG WITH ALL SURROUND NWS OFFICES TO LIKELY. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED TEMPS AND CONTINUE WITH THE COLD SOLUTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN (NOT THE OPERATIONAL GFS WITH IS WARM) AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF. CMC IS WARMEST I`VE SEEN - ALL RAIN AND A LOT OF IT (DON`T NEED THAT EITHER). WILL ADD THIS TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... OW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FARTHER AWAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. LEFTOVER BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW COULD BRING TEMPO MVFR CONDS TO KBDR/KISP/KGON BEFORE DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE MAINY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW /RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC/ AT 10-15 KT. GUSTS 20-25 KT WILL BE SPORADIC AT FIRST...THEN BECOME MORE FREQUENT BY 14Z. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WED NIGHT-THU...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS. .THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING...IFR CONDS LIKELY IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY INLAND...AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN ON LONG ISLAND. .FRI AFTERNOON-NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-30KT INCREASING AT NIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE. .SAT...VFR. .SUN...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY...AS ANOTHER LOW IMPACTS THE AREA. LOW TRACK AND THEREFORE DETAILS ON PRECIP TYPE AND WINDS UNCERTAIN. && .MARINE... THE NOR`EASTER WEAKENS AND EXITS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SCA GUSTS CONTINUE TODAY FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SCA LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION MAKES GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A HALF AN INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME OR MOST OF THIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION...SO LITTLE OR NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A WARM SOLUTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A POSSIBLE AND MOST PRECIPITATION COULD BE OF LIQUID. THIS WOULD PRODUCE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS JUST RECEIVING A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TONGUE NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...TONGUE LONG TERM...TONGUE AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...TONGUE/PW HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW

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