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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 041128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
628 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE TO REFLECT
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

SKC ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FILTER IN
FROM THE W. WINDS NOT COMPLETELY CALM NEAR THE COASTS...SO TEMPS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THERE. ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR...KMGJ ALREADY AT
ZERO.

A QUICK DROP IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTS THRU SUNRISE IF WINDS
DROP OFF. OTHERWISE...THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN COLD AND CALM THRU
SUNRISE.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE OH VALLEY OVERSPREAD THE CWA TODAY.
LLVLS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN. TEMPS COLD AND VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FCST. HIGHS STILL 15-20 DEGREES BLW
CLIMO.

CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT TNGT.
TEMPS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS EXCEPT FOR
THE IMMEDIATE NYC URBAN ZONE. WINDS MAINLY CALM WITH A VERY WEAK
PRES GRAD OVER THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
DRY COOL AND CLOUDY WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE N. MARINE INFLUENCE WILL MODIFY THE AIRMASS RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. BLENDED IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS...PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.

LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW REMAINING
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THE HIGH REMAINING IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER. SO...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF A NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A
20-25 POP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. P-TYPE WITH THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH TAF PERIOD FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...BECOMING VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AROUND 5 KT LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY...AND A MID DECK IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST. TIMING OF WHEN WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE COULD BE
1-3 HOURS OFF FROM FORECAST.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. A POSSIBLE FLURRY OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
.THURSDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED.

EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SE CANADA. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ON FRI...AND THEN BACK NW FRI NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
EQUIPMENT...