Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KOKX 230349
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1149 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016
A cold front approaches tonight and will move across early
Saturday. Another cold front will pass across the area Saturday
night. High pressure will then be in control on Sunday before a
cold front moves across the area Monday into Monday night. High
pressure returns for Tuesday through Thursday. Another front moves
through the area on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Made some slight adjustments to temperatures, dewpoints, and pops
for showers and thunderstorms to better match observed trends.
Most convection has developed and moved across parts of Southern
CT. Most activity is tapering down as instability decreases
further tonight. There is not much support aloft with unfavorable
jet position so aside from Southeast CT and perhaps the twin forks
of Long Island, expecting dry conditions. Min temperatures range
from the mid 60s across most rural interior sections to upper 70s
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Seriously, despite the passage of a trough this evening, we will
not cool off much for Saturday and another hot day will be seen
across the area. However, with winds trending toward the west to
northwest at all levels, this will advect in drier air that will
drop surface dewpoints into the 50s to lower 60s by the afternoon.
Thus, heat index values will not be as high as today and in some
ways it may feel a little better. However, the west to northwest
flow will `downslope` and thus drag the hotter air out even toward
the coast. I leaned toward the hotter end of statistical guidance
for highs as a result. The Heat Advisory will remain up for The
City and we added urban parts of Essex and Union Counties in NJ as
well as Hudson County where actual temperatures could get to 100
(most likely at Newark which would be about the average highest
temperature of the year). No records are in threat at Newark or in
the City though as we are competing against the Heat wave of 2011
when Newark set an all-time record high of 108.
Another more vigorous trough passes across New England tomorrow
evening, both aloft and at the surface. There may be enough
moisture in interior new London County to pop off a shower or
thunderstorm but otherwise it should be dry. Saturday night will
be a little cooler.
There will be a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds into the area on Sunday. High temperatures on
Sunday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s for most areas, but will
be in the low to mid 90s for NYC, portions of NE NJ, and southern
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. With a west to northwest flow,
dewpoints should not be as high as Saturday, resulting in heat
indices below 95 degrees.
High pressure moves offshore Sunday night. Meanwhile a low pressure
over eastern Canada will push its associated cold front through the
area Monday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over
western areas and spread east as that front advances and pushes
through the region Monday night.
Highs on Monday will be in the low to mid 90s, and heat indices will
top off in the mid to upper 90s. Monday night will be very warm and
humid with lows near 80 around NYC, and in the low to mid 70s
elsewhere. Areas of fog are likely as well.
High pressure builds into the area on Tuesday, ushering in cooler
and dryer air. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 90s, and
with surface dewpoints in the 60s, heat indices will once again top
off in the mid 90s.
High pressure will continue to build across the area through
Thursday. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on
Wednesday, and mid to upper 80s on Thursday. Another cold front is
then forecast to impact the local area later on Thursday and into
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front moves through towards daybreak. VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period. There is a low chance for some
patchy fog and MVFR vsbys early Saturday morning outside the NY
WNW flow is likely tomorrow with gusts to 20KT in the afternoon.
Coastal sea breeze development is not forecast despite the heat.
.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NGT through SUN NGT...VFR.
.MON...Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower possible in scattered
late day/evening thunderstorms.
.TUE and WED...VFR.
SCA conditions remain on the ocean waters. The wind gusts will be
20-25 kt across the ocean and ocean seas will be 4-6 ft but both
will decrease overnight into daybreak. All other waters will
remain below SCA for the rest of tonight. Overall the pressure
gradient will decrease tonight so winds will gradually lower but
ocean seas will take longer to decrease. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms remains mainly for the eastern waters going into the
Lighter offshore flow on Saturday will keep waves on the low
High pressure will influence the area waters on Sunday. A cold
front moves through the waters Monday night, and then high
pressure returns for the middle of next week.
Below small craft advisory conditions expected for the
No significant widespread rainfall expected tonight. Mainly dry
conditions are forecast this weekend.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the region Monday
afternoon and Monday night, resulting in the potential for locally
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-