Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 290235 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1035 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND THEN OFFSHORE...FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... UPDATED TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. DUE TO THICKENING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 30 KFT...THIS MAY PUT A CHECK ON SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN WITH A S/SW WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOWS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY ACROSS THE NYC METRO...AND DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE OUTLYING SUBURBS. UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE NE US. RESULTANT SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE UPPER LOW...WITH TAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH UPPER/MID LEVEL ENERGY AND THERMAL ADVECTION LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS REACHING AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS FRONT IMPINGES ON THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS CT VALLEYS AND COAST IF CIRRUS REMAIN THIN OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING W TO E THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND PUSHING EAST WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE POST FRONTAL IN WAKE OF INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AS SHORTWAVE/RIGHT REAR JET ENERGY APPROACH AND AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONT WITH SHOT OF CAA. THIS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND WITH CAA LAGGING FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED NIGHT WITH ANY LAGGING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN CT/LI COMING TO AN END IN THE EVENING. CONTINUED CAA ON NW FLOW WILL BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMS LAT WED NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF TIMING...STRENGTH...AND PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE RESULT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF PTYPE FOR THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. DEEP UPPER TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...AND STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT IMPACTS THE REGION AND THE PTYPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST/WEST THAT LOW TRACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS IS MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER THE ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE WEST THAN IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. 12Z CMC IS FASTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE COMPARED TO BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GFS MEMBERS...BUT NOT ALL. THE ECMWF TRACK WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARM AIR TO SURGE ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP PRECIP RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN COLD AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND IT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. WHAT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW FAR WEST BANDING BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD. AS A RESULT... SATURDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP AS A BIT MORE INTERESTING THAN SATURDAY...BUT THAT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN AREAS. SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S. COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON DYNAMICAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. TEMPS THEN MODERATE GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE AREA LATE WEDS MORNING. VFR FOR THE CITY TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MVFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLY CIGS AS WELL LATE TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE CITY. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR DEVELOPMENT IS MODERATE. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SW UNDER 10 KT THIS EVENING. SW WINDS AT FL020 WILL INCREASE TO 40-45 KT TONIGHT FOR THE CITY TERMINALS FROM APPROX 04-07Z...AND ABOUT AN HOUR LATER FARTHER EAST. SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR ON WEDS...BUT SHRA POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTN. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY...MAINLY VIA RAIN SHOWERS BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT KSWF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING. NE-N WINDS G20-25KT. .SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. N WINDS G25-30KT. .SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
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&& .MARINE... PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT S/SW FLOW ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS UP TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE OCEAN. WIND GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT INTO WED MORN...BUT FREQUENCY WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. FOR OTHER WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AT TIMES. THE SCA SEAS COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESIDUAL 4-5 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-FRI. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC. IMPROVEMENT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE WEST. && .HYDROLOGY... LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVE. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/NV NEAR TERM...NV/DW SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...JC MARINE...MPS/NV HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV

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