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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 030855
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 AM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING WELL EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LIGHT ICING
CAUSED BY FREEZING FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR IN
NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT UNTIL 9 AM.
PATCHY LIGHT ICING WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND
COASTAL CT UNTIL AROUND 6 AM WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM
THE UPPER WIND FLOW.

EXCEPT FOR NYC...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S - MID 30S UNTIL
SUNRISE.

LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES WELL OFFSHORE...WITH PRECIP REMAINING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE...CAUSING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS PARTS
OF PA AND CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
REGION. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST WITH THIS WAVE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TRANQUIL WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A NARROW
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THEN OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY BOTH TUE
AND WED.

FOR TODAY...WITH A NEW MOON PHASE...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE. WITH TIDES RANGING FROM 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL...A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. BECAUSE
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
WILL BE ISSUED.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAY A
ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY GROUND FOG ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD
FROST...MAKING FOR AN ICY START OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
USHERING IN WARMER AND MOIST AIR. 850 TEMPS FORECAST TO BE AROUND
8-10C...LENDING TO TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THURSDAY AND
STAY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPS
STEADILY FALLING AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...850
TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -6C BY SAT AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING LENDING TO RAIN FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THAT TIME FRAME AND HAVE GONE LIKELY POPS AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND
PRECIP TAPERS OFF SATURDAY...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL END AS
SNOW. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BRIEFLY WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT
INCREASES ON MONDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW FORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING TEMPS UP TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. PRECIP TYPE COULD BECOME AN ISSUE MONDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP AND THE DAMMING
HIGH TO THE NORTH. IF HIGH STAYS PUT...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A WINTRY
MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL EAST TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR TONIGHT.

NYC TERMINALS REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD...WHILE AREAS NORTH AND EAST
WILL VARY BETWEEN LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AFTER 13Z...WITH ALL AREAS THEN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTH FLOW AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING...SHIFTING TO MORE WNW
FOR THE AFTN...REMAINING 5-7 KTS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE VIS DROP TO 3SM THROUGH 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS PSBL THROUGH 12Z...IFR VIS PSBL
THROUGH 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS MAY LINGER +1 HR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR VIS LATE.
.WED...VFR.
.WED NIGHT-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF -SHRA.
.FRI NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF PCPN. FROZEN
PCPN PSBL WEST AND NORTH OF NYC METRO AREA...COASTAL AREAS GENERALLY
-SHRA.
.SAT...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT PCPN PSBL SAT MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT. N WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GUST TO 20 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS THEN TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND A FRONT ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE AS
A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 25 KT BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE FORECAST
TO RISE ABOVE 5 FEET WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...EACH BRINGING POSSIBLY AN INCH OF RAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD
EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...GC/LN
HYDROLOGY...GC/LN
EQUIPMENT...GC