


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --863 FXUS61 KOKX 271754 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 154 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over New England shifts east through this evening today with a warm front approaching overnight. The front lifts through during Saturday morning, followed by a cold front Saturday night. The front then stalls to our south on Sunday and lifts back as a warm front through Monday into Tuesday as low pressure passes well to the north. The associated cold front then moves east Tuesday night, with high pressure returning midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An upper ridge axis aloft shifts into the region with surface high pressure over New England moving offshore this afternoon. Mostly cloudy conditions persist across much of the area although there will be some sunshine across eastern Long Island and southeast CT, closer to the surface high. Clouds and onshore flow hold high temperatures below normal levels. A warm front then approaches tonight. Lift in association with the front along with some help of a weak shortwave likely produce some showers mainly for the late night hours. PWATs are quite high even though most of the moisture is confined below 850mb. Can`t completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm late at night as elevated instability pushes in, but forcing is pretty weak overall. This would also mitigate any hydrologic impacts. There could be some fog as well but probably not dense anywhere as turbulent mixing just above the boundary layer should be sufficient to prevent it. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Still some showers possible during the morning as the warm front lifts north, then a prefrontal trough approaches the western zones late in the day. SBCAPEs may build up to 1500-2500 J/kg here by this time and mechanical lift from the approaching trough with PVA would help overcome low-mid level capping that appears to be in place for much of the day based on forecast soundings. Strong to potentially severe storms could be possible in the afternoon to early evening given the instability and winds aloft. Primary severe threat with be for wind gusts with a fairly unidirectional flow through the column. SPC continues to keep areas west of CT and LI in a marginal risk for severe weather. PWATs will be high, but the flow aloft would allow for fairly progressive cells without training. Chances are that any hydrologic impacts would be minor, and WPC now has just about the entire area out of any risk for flash flooding. High temperatures return to near or a few degrees above normal on Saturday in the warm sector and partial afternoon sunshine. A trailing cold front then pushes through during Saturday night with shower and thunderstorm probabilities tapering off overnight. High pressure builds in from the west Sunday into Sunday night with slight ridging aloft. Mostly sunny and not as muggy as Saturday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid level ridge axis overhead pushes offshore Monday as a trough over the Upper Great Lakes advances east. Associated low pressure with the trough lifts the boundary to the south back up and thru the region as a warm front into late Monday. So while the bulk of the day appears dry with latest guidance, increasing cloud cover by late day could lead to a period of showers and thunderstorms into Monday night. Tuesday appears unsettled with the region warm sectored ahead of the attendant cold front approaching from the west. Shear and instability profiles look to increase, and any convective activity could be strong to severe, especially as one goes west. Behind the fropa Tuesday night, drier and cooler mid next week as high pressure returns to the region. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday range from the mid 80s for most to lower 90s in parts of the urban NYC metro. With dew pts progged into the 60s and 70s, heat indices in some locales, primarily urban NE NJ and NYC metro, could approach or exceed 95F one or both days. Little in the way of temperature relief behind the front, though drier air in subsequent NW flow helps to lower humidity values mid to late week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds in from the northeast, as a frontal boundary remains draped to the south over the Mid Atlantic. Mainly VFR for the rest of the afternoon. MVFR and eventually IFR ceilings build in after 3Z Sat with light rain developing from west to east. Categories lower to IFR for most terminals through the Saturday morning push. Some improvement in categories possible after 13-15Z for the NYC terminals with rain ending. Outlying terminals will take longer to improve to MVFR. MVFR to VFR possible for terminals into the afternoon. SHRA and TSRA possible after 20Z for western terminals. Included as a Prob30 for now for the NYC terminals. Timing of best chance for TSRA for the NYC terminals looks closer to 00Z with coverage isolated to scattered. Winds are E to SE with occasional gusts to around 20 kt. Gusts diminishing by 00Z Sat. Winds then become primarily S by Saturday morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments possible for timing of category changes and onset of rain this evening/tonight. Gusts today may be more occasional at times. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday: Any remaining MVFR cigs should become VFR except outlying terminals. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms and MVFR in the evening. Sunday and Monday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday and Monday night. Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower possible, especially late afternoon and evening. Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE... Non-ocean waters remain below advisory thresholds through Sunday night. On the ocean, SCA remains in effect through tonight for both winds and seas today, and mainly for seas tonight. Winds veer southerly for Saturday at around 10 kt then increase Saturday night ahead of a cold front. Gusts however likely remain below 25 kt. Mainly offshore flow for Sunday below 10 kt. Conditions are expected to largely remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds on coastal waters early to mid next week && .HYDROLOGY... Quick-moving heavy downpours are possible late Saturday into Saturday night and could lead to some instances of nuisance flooding in urban, low lying, and/or poor drainage locations. No significant hydrological concerns thereafter. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Isolated minor coastal flooding is possible in the most vulnerable locales along the back bays of S Nassau and Queens during this evening`s high tide cycle, as water levels come down slightly from a new moon early in the week. There is a high rip current risk for all south shore Long Island and NYC beaches today. Surf heights of 3-4 feet with a long shore current will lead to this high risk. Surf height lowers to 2-3 feet on Saturday with onshore flow, so the rip current risk will lower to moderate on Saturday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/DR NEAR TERM...JC/DS SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...DR AVIATION...MW MARINE...JC/DR HYDROLOGY...JC/DR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...