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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 310506
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
106 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST FROM EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A THREAT OF SPRINKLES OR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER WEST OF HUDSON OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
OUTLYING AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S. .
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z...WITH KSWF POSSIBLY
IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO IMPACT
TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THRU THE
DAY. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS