Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 011544 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1144 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STREAM NE INTO THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD AND OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE DC METRO. PERIODIC WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL ENHANCE LLJ...TAPPING INTO INSTABILITY/THETA-E TO THE SOUTH...AND INVIGORATING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION IN WAVES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. SOME SMALLER STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN NJ...COULD ALSO EXCEED BANKFULL. HAVE EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO ALL BUT EASTERN LI WITH EXPECTED GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF HEAVY RAIN AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS...AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN ANY URBANIZED AREAS. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. NOT EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH TODAY...SO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IN CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH TUE...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THIS TIME. PWATS REMAIN HIGH RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON TUE...SO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO RAIN AS WE SHOULD BE ON THE N SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS RAIN COULD HOWEVER BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW AND PCPN...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND BELOW NORMAL ON TUE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING AS HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. NORTHERN STREAM ZONAL FLOW THEN REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH OVER OR NEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN KEEPING THE AREA NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DIGGING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND BRING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A BRIEF RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER COOL CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH NO BLOCKING PATTERN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE RATHER ACTIVE AND AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. E-NE WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT TODAY. E-NE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO THE N-NNE LATE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. TIMING OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN AND FOG. .TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. .WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ON THE OCEAN TODAY WITH COMBINATION OF ELY FLOW 15-20 KT AND INCOMING 3-FT SE SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LAST INTO TONIGHT...WITH CONDS LIKELY BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUE AS LOW PRES WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE WATERS. TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES OFF SHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SEVERAL LOCATIONS RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES YESTERDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES...SOME OF WHICH FELL OVER A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND RESULTED IN FLASH FLOODING. SINCE PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z WED AND ALSO INCLUDED ALL BUT EASTERN LI FOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT. ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG QPF OF 1 1/2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED INTO TUE EVE...WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND NYC THROUGH SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078- 080-176>179. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/MET NEAR TERM...24/MET/NV SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...BC/DS MARINE...24/MET/NV HYDROLOGY...24/MET/NV

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