Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 032052 CCA AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 452 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW JERSEY TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OWING TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NY AND PA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHEAST NY AND NORTHWEST NJ. ALTHOUGH THERE IS INSTABILITY...WARMER AIR ALOFT IS HINDERING MORE VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING ONLY NOTED IN STORMS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION SPLITS AROUND NYC AND LONG ISLAND WITH GREATER CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID- WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NY STATE AND NERN PA MAY IMPACT THE CITY AFT 21Z...SO A TEMPO HAS BEEN INCLUDED. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TNGT. COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT SO VCTS USED IN THE TAFS. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF AFT 4-6Z. A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED CLOSER TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE ENHANCED FLOW. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT BEFORE 00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT BEFORE 00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT BEFORE 00Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT BEFORE 00Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT IMPACT THE ARPT BEFORE 00Z. CHC FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHC THAT TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT THE ARPT AFT 23Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT... .REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT. .WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW. .FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE. .SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.
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&& .MARINE... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING. OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. && .HYDROLOGY... THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$

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