Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190235 CCA AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 935 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will build from the west into Thursday, and settle overhead Thursday night into early Friday. A weakening frontal system will approach Friday night into Saturday, and then dissipate. Deepening low pressure will approach from the southwest from Sunday into Monday while a gradually strengthening high builds into the Canadian Maritimes. The low will continue to approach Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track. A northern stream shortwave will pass through tonight, with sufficient forcing to cause some spotty light rain or drizzle (freezing rain or drizzle where temps are at or below 32). Confidence in freezing drizzle is too low at this point to issue an SPS (not sure of timing of precipitation with temperatures falling too/below freezing across the interior). However, best forcing looks like it will miss NE NJ/NYC zones, so went with a dry forecast there. There should be some patchy fog across most of the area as well, this also could freeze in areas falling to/below freezing. Once again confidence is too low in this to issue an SPS at this time. Temperatures will only fall a few degrees from current readings given low cloud ceiling, so lows should generally run upper 20s-lower 30s across northern interior zones and mainly mid-upper 30s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... With the low pressure moving farther offshore and high pressure building in, flow will gradually turn more northwesterly advecting drier air into the area and allowing the stratus to finally erode. Sunny conditions are expected by late morning, with subtle downslope flow aiding in temperatures rising into the mid 40s to lower 50s, around 10 degrees above climatological normals. Apart from any light drizzle in the morning, the remainder of the day should be dry. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure system will move northeastward into the Great Lakes region on Friday, pushing a weakening frontal system across the area Friday night into early Saturday. Precipitation amounts will be light with this system. High temperatures Friday will be in the low to mid 40s. Lows Friday night will be in the mid to upper 30s. A weak boundary will remain overhead for Saturday, but ridging overhead should allow for dry conditions across most areas through the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s and mid to upper 40s on Sunday. Lows Saturday and Sunday night will generally be in the mid to upper 30s. A stronger frontal system approaches late Sunday into early next week. At this time it does look like this system will bring to the area a soaking rain Sunday into Monday. There is the potential of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with this system from Sunday afternoon into Monday night. The low will slowly pull away from the area by the middle of next week. Temperatures Monday through the middle of the week will remain above normal. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west. MVFR/VFR improves to all VFR by late tonight with the exception of KGON, which may remain at IFR all night. N-NW winds under 10 KT tonight. For Thursday, VFR with NW winds under 10 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday night-Friday...VFR. .Friday night...Chance of MVFR or lower in -RA. .Saturday-Saturday night...VFR. .Sunday...Chance of MVFR of lower in -RA, with best chance at CT/Long Island Terminals. .Monday...Chance of IFR with heavy rain and strong E-NE winds.
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&& .MARINE...
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Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track. Wind gusts have fallen below 25 kt, therefore have converted the SCA on the coastal ocean waters to an SCA for Hazardous Seas. Seas should remain at 5-6 ft in at least part of each coastal water zone into Thursday, before subsiding to below 5 ft throughout during Thursday evening. A relatively relaxed pressure gradient over the waters should keep winds to 10 kt or less, except 15 kt or less early in the forecast period overnight. Below small craft advisory conditions Friday through early Sunday. Saturday. Small craft advisory conditions are possible on the ocean waters Sunday afternoon, and for all waters on Monday, with the approach of the next storm. Gales may be possible on the ocean Monday afternoon/evening, and ocean seas could reach 6-11 ft Sunday night into early next week as an easterly fetch sets up.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No significant precipitation is expected through Saturday night. As a frontal system moves slowly across the hydrologic service area Sunday into the middle of next week it could bring a significant rainfall of one to two inches. There is the potential for some minor flooding. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Maloit/MD/Fig NEAR TERM...Maloit SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...JC MARINE...Maloit/MD/Fig HYDROLOGY...MD/Fig

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