Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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106 FXUS61 KOKX 192031 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 431 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTROLS THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN STALLS NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SURFACE WARM FRONT STILL EDGING EASTWARD...BASICALLY TO NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER AT 19Z...AND INCHING EAST. COLD FRONT IS FAST ON ITS HEELS FROM EASTERN UPSTATE NEW YORK BACK INTO NE PA. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION THAT FIRES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE CATSKILLS/POCONOS HOLDS TOGETHER IS IT TRACKS SE INTO THE CWA. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...AND APPEARS ON OUTLIER. OTHER HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING RAP AND HRRR AS WELL AS SREF SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANYTHING HOLD TOGETHER EAST OF THE HUDSON. POPS ARE WEIGHED TOWARDS THIS CONSENSUS. RAP SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1000 J/KG CAPE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY STRONG STORMS THERE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL NOTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE INTO INTERIOR SW CT ZONES...SO DO HAVE CHANCE THUNDER IN FOR NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 20-25KT DOWNSLOPING BL WINDS. SO COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO MAYBE OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH BY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH BEST FORCING WITH A PASSING N STREAM SHORT WAVE STAYING WELL TO THE N...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REDUCE DOWN TO 15-20KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COUPLED WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROMOTE SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED...TWEAKED DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DAYTIME HOURS OF THURSDAY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE MAIN INFLUENCE. AT THE LEAST...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP. SO PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A BLEND OF MAV/NAM MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THIS PART OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN RESTORED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOW-MID 70S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT SW. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES. GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT OF UPPER RIDGING...WILL FAVOR THE IDEA THAT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH...OR AT MOST PASSES THROUGH PART OF THE CWA BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH. IN ANY CASE...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BOTH FRONTS NEARBY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME CAPE PRESENT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR THRU 00Z...ESPECIALLY THE METRO. TSTMS APPEAR THEY WILL REMAIN RELEGATED TO AREAS NW OF THE CITY THIS EVE. VCTS INCLUDED FOR KSWF...OTHERWISE NO TSTMS FORECAST ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER TO IMPACT THE METRO. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS SCT -RA. VFR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. LIGHT SW WIND THIS EVE...WITH COMPLICATED MARINE INFLUENCED FLOW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-25 KT THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION POSSIBLE THRU 4Z. LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS 00Z TO 04Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION POSSIBLE THEREAFTER THRU 4Z. LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS 00Z TO 04Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WIND DIRECTION THRU 3Z MAY BE NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE FLOW DEVELOPS...BRINGING WINDS TO AROUND 140 TRUE. LOW PROB OF RESIDUAL TSTMS REACHING THE TERMINAL AFT 00Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF RESIDUAL TSTMS REACHING THE TERMINAL AFT 00Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF RESIDUAL TSTMS REACHING THE TERMINAL AFT 00Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN VFR TIL AROUND 00Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WED...VFR. NW WINDS 15-25KT. .THU...VFR WITH SW WINDS. .FRI...VFR WITH W FLOW BECOMING NW. .SAT...VFR WITH VRB WINDS. .SUN...VFR WITH SW WINDS.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT NEAR SHORE IN THE NY BIGHT REGION...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS...HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT NEAR SHORE AROUND NYC/WESTERN LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE HOWEVER BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN GUSTS SHOULD SLACKEN IN THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE 30-25 PERCENT...EXCEPT 25-30 PERCENT IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...PLUS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE RECEIVED THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER RELATED PRODUCTS FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... GENERALLY LESS THAN .2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH DOES OCCUR OVER MAINLY NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THEN THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...JMC/DS MARINE...JC/MALOIT FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT

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