Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261752 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1252 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WITH A SHORTWAVE NEAR 700 MB PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...LIGHT SNOW ENDED UP FALLING OVER THESE AREAS. OVER LONG ISLAND...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE HAS ACTUALLY PRODUCED A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. IT APPEARS AS IF CLOUDS WILL INCREASE HERE SOMEWHAT BY LATE...AND EVEN A FLURRY OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST END. OUTSIDE LONG ISLAND...FLURRIES/SCT FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE SHIFTING THROUGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST. AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING. TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL QUITE COLD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF MVFR TO IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 19 TO MAYBE 20Z...IT SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10000 FT. N-NE WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT OUT OF THE N-NW BY MID-LATE MORNING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 010-040 TRUE (020-050 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE AND VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 020-050 TRUE (030-060 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE AND LOW CHANCE MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE AND LOW CHANCE MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE AND LOW CHANCE IFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 20Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR VARYING CONDITIONS WITH -SN. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT AND VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR IN -SN THROUGH AROUND 21Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. .SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH -RA S TERMINALS. .MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN. SE-S WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE .TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN S...-SN TO A WINTRY MIX N. LLWS POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SCA FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...WITH WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...COMING CLOSE TO 25 KT. IN ADDITION...SEAS PER WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS AND 15 KT WINDS. BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KT...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON MONDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW/BC NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...PW/BC HYDROLOGY...PW/BC

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