Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190948 CCA AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 447 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND LIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT FOLLOWING ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SENDS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH JANUARY-LIKE TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 DEGREES AT THE COAST AND IN THE TEENS INLAND. WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT ARE STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY ALTHOUGH ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 30 TO 35 DEGREES. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW LATER THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FORKS DUE TO THE FLOW OFF THE WARMER WATERS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. OCEAN/SOUND EFFECT CONTINUES TODAY...BUT ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES BROADENS THROUGH THU AS 100KT H3 JET DIVES THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE AND LFQ OF UPPER JET. THE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL NW OF THE AREA...BUT ITS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON THU. NWP REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH WARM FROPA PCPN REMAINING THE NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. WAA ENSUES TONIGHT WITH MINS LIKELY OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT MANY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE ON THU...THEREFORE NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FROPA...JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN. HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE WARMER...BUT CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AMPLIFIED MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM PATTERN CONTINUES AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER COLD...ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY DIMINISHING WINDS. IT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD HOWEVER AS LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE TEENS INLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL STATES SETTING UP A WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE PATTERN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S. AFTER SEEING RECORD LOWS THIS WEEK...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW RECORD HIGHS AT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST. GOOD AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH CONTINUES CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL INTO THE 50S...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR PLUS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE AND THEN BACK TO SW THIS AFTN. A MID DECK OF CLOUDS MOVES IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENT IN THE WINDS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING AND THEN BACKING TO FAVOR THE 2`S FOR THE LATE AFTN. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENT IN THE WINDS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING AND THEN BACKING SW FOR THE LATE AFTN. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CONFIDENT IN THE WINDS BACKING TO SW FOR THE LATE AFTN. TAIL WIND ON R11 OF LESS THAN 5 KT AFT 21Z EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO AMENDMENTS SCHEDULED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .LATE TONIGHT...VFR. .THU...VFR. SW WIND 15-20KT WITH G30KT POSSIBLE. .FRI...VFR. WNW WINDS G25KT POSSIBLE. .FRI NGT-SAT...VFR. .SUN...VFR BECOMING MARGINAL LATE IN THE DAY. IFR AT NGT IN RA AND FG WITH LLWS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... WINDS STILL REACHING GALE FORCE ON MOST WATERS...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z. WINDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING ON NY HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN SOUND...SO HAVE BACKED UP THE END TIME OF THE SCA TO 12Z FROM 15Z. WINDS THEN CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SUB-ADVSY WINDS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY LINGER AT UP TO 5 FT THROUGH THE DAY. GALES LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD FROPA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING ON THE EASTERN SOUND AND ADJACENT BAYS AND THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE. NEED TO WAIT FOR CURRENT HEADLINES TO EXPIRE BEFORE PUTTING UP NEW ONES. WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TO MARGINAL GALES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET...HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. WINDS DECREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS ALSO DECREASING. SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE SUN INTO MON. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS EVENT. && .CLIMATE... SOME RECORDS HAVE BEEN BROKEN FOR LOWS TODAY... NYC....18/1936 JFK....27/2008 NOW 24 LGA....28/2008 NOW 24 EWR....19/1936 BDR....24/1986 NOW 23 ISP....23/1997 TIED AT 23 THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWEST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY... NYC....34/1882 JFK....37/2008 LGA....35/1951 EWR....35/1951 BDR....35/2008 ISP....35/2008 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ335- 338-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-350- 353-355. && $$

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