Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251157 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 657 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LOW TRACKING INTO QUEBEC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...CROSSES THE TRI- STATE ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT...INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS INTO CENTRAL CT AND LONG ISLAND AT 11Z...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS BEHIND IT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY 13Z...WITH THE SHOWERS TRAILING BEHIND IT BY ABOUT A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE COLD FRONT HAS ALSO SCOURED OUT THE DENSE FOG AHEAD OF IT...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THIS MORNING...WITH CLEARING IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN STORY FOR THIS CHRISTMAS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY THIS MORNING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN FALL OFF INTO THE 40S BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 30-40 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR THE COAST AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... GUSTY WINDS LAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS AXIS BUILDING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THEN SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECM/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WITH EXCEPTION OF CMC - MODELS HAVE IN GENERAL COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...ENDS UP STALLING OUT TO FAR TO THE SOUTH FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG IT TO HAVE MUCH IF ANY IMPACT ON THE AREA. TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS ARE WITH THE INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WAVE. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONLY RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE N AND RIDGING OFF THE FL COAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO DETERMINING THE EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT. FOR NOW APPEARS STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...OTHERWISE HAVE GONE DRY OVER LAND MONDAY- TUESDAY NIGHT. LIKELY WILL BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE LOWEST LAYERS TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR NOW THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AS THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING PASSING OVER THE AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT NOW JUST WEST OF NYC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z. CONDITIONS HAVE QUICKLY IMPROVED TO VFR IN THE CITY AND SOME SURROUNDING TERMINALS. EXPECT ALL THE TERMINALS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z-15Z AND THE RAIN THE BE EAST OF KGON BY 15Z. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT 15 TO 20 KT SPEEDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT. LOW PROB OF GUSTS 35-40 KT. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AFTER 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST POSSIBLE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AFTER 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST POSSIBLE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AFTER 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST POSSIBLE. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AFTER 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST POSSIBLE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AFTER 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST POSSIBLE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AFTER 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST POSSIBLE. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .FRI-SAT...VFR. .SUN...MARGINAL VFR. CHANCE OF RAIN. .MON...VFR. && .MARINE... MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. THEREFORE...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT AND GONE STRAIGHT TO GALES TODAY. SCA GUSTS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...TAPERING OFF TO BELOW SCA LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICTING THAT GUSTS WILL COME TO AN END RATHER QUICKLY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... UP TO A 1/4-1/2 AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. && .CLIMATE... RECORD MAXIMUM MINIMUMS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY... LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR NEWARK.............47/1979 BDRIDGEPORT........45/1964 CENTRAL PARK.......50/1979 LAGUARDIA..........48/1964 JFK AIRPORT........46/1987 ISLIP AIRPORT......45/1987 THESE RECORDS LIKELY WILL NOT FALL AS TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES AT OR BEFORE 11:59 PM THIS EVENING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...BC MARINE...BC HYDROLOGY...MALOIT CLIMATE...

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