Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261136 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 636 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A NOR`EASTER DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT AS IT INTENSIFIES REACHING JUST EAST OF MONTAUK POINT BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STORM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY IS FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEING REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF NE NJ AND NYC METRO. LIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SOUTHERN CT WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH SNOW FROM FALLING HERE UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LIFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND DEVELOP INTO A NOR`EASTER. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE. THIS SNOW WILL SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S INLAND...TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A LIFE THREATENING...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM EXPECTED FROM LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY... NWP GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN ONE WOULD LIKE TO SEE AT SUCH A SHORT RANGE. MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD MEAN LOWER SNOW TOTALS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. IT DID LOWER QPF SLIGHTLY...BUT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINED SIMILAR TO ITS 12Z RUN. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES WITH JUST ONE MODEL CYCLE. IN FACT...THE LATEST 06Z NAM HAS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 21Z AND 03Z SREF MEANS REMAINED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A FAST NE OUTLIER. IT MAY ALSO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS QPF MAXIMUM OFFSHORE...AND DOES NOT SEEM TO GET FULLY CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW. STILL ANTICIPATE THE LOW TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW STALLS SE OF MONTAUK LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LOW...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERS AND INTENSE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE HEAVY SNOW BANDS...BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THEIR LOCATION THIS FAR OUT. MODELS ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO NOT SPREAD THE BEST LIFT FAR ENOUGH NW IN INTENSE CYCLONES. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...DID LOWER SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC...BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL 18 TO 24 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE BEST MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING SETS UP. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HEAVY FALLING/BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 35 MPH ON LONG ISLAND...AND WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40 MPH INLAND...TO 45-50 MPH MOST ELSEWHERE. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND. WITH THE LOW NEARLY STALLING NEAR CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN MESOSCALE BANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS DURING THE STORM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT FALLING TO 15-20 TONIGHT INLAND. WIND CHILLS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...BUT COULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NOR`EASTER BEGINS TO FILL AND PULL AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. BECOMING SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS. TEMPS FCST BELOW MOS WITH SNOW COVER. WIND CHILLS ON WEDNESDAY ARE IN THE LOWER TEENS. CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NEW SNOW COVER. CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE A "TYPICAL" CLIPPER WITH 1-3" IN AN ALL SNOW EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ON SATURDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. THE ACTIVE PATTERN REACHING THE LIMITS OF PREDICTABILITY BY SUNDAY. SUGGESTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH GEFS LOOKING VERY CHAOTIC...HARD TO SAY MUCH AS TO WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT EXPECTED FROM LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ** LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...THEN TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR...LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 12-15Z FROM W TO E. IFR IN SNOW BY 15-18Z AND LIFR BY 18-21Z FROM W TO E. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KGON BY LATE THIS EVENING. 1-3" OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 00Z...THEN 2-4 INCH AN HOUR RATES DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT. N WINDS VEER TO THE NE EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK TO THE NNE LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25-40KT LOWEST FAR W TERMINALS AND STRONGEST FAR E TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS AND FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS AND FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS AND FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS AND FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS AND FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS AND FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. NE-N WINDS G35-50 KT. .LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. .THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN. .FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN THE AFTN.
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&& .MARINE... NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECATS PACKAGE. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ACROSS ALL WATERS ON TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. GALE FORCE EASTERLY WIND GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY...RAMPING UP TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK NORTHERLY TO MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND STORM FORCE ELSEWHERE AND ALSO ON EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY ALSO SEE SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS START SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO BE BELOW GALES BEFORE MORNING AND BELOW SCA LEVELS IN THE EARLY EVENING TUESDAY. SUB SCA ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEN SCA WINDS RETURN AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS WELL OFF SHORE. && .HYDROLOGY... A MAJOR SNOWSTORM EXPECTED FROM MON INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES. LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AS IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING. THE NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS FOR PARTS OF REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SURGE IS IN HOW QUICKLY WINDS TURN FROM THE NE TO N. AN EARLIER VEERING OF WINDS TO THE N AHEAD OF HIGH TIDE TYPICALLY REDUCES SURGE IN OUR REGION. THE MOST LIKELY SURGE FOR COASTAL AREAS IS: - WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND IS 3 TO 4 FT OF SURGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4 1/2 FT. - EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND IS 2 1/2 TO 3 1/2 FT OF SURGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4 FT. - NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS 2 1/2 TO 3 1/2 FT OF SURGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4 FT. BEACH EROSION AND WASHOVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OCEAN FACING BARRIER BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND DUE TO 7 TO 12 FT WAVES AND THE HIGH STORM TIDE. A FEW EXPOSED WATER FRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED. HIGH WAVES AND HIGH STORM TIDE WILL ALSO CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND ALONG THE TWIN FORKS. A FEW EXPOSED WATER FRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AS IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING. THIS MORNING EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE SURGE FORECAST...SO THE THREAT IS SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED. THE TIDE OF CONCERN IS THE ONE OVERNIGHT...THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGH TIDE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. THE NOR`EASTER MAY PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS FOR PARTS OF REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SURGE IS IN HOW QUICKLY WINDS TURN FROM THE NE TO N. AN EARLIER VEERING OF WINDS TO THE N AHEAD OF HIGH TIDE TYPICALLY REDUCES SURGE IN OUR REGION. THE MOST LIKELY SURGE FOR COASTAL AREAS IS: - WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND IS 2 TO 3 FT OF SURGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4 FT. - EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND IS 1 TO 2 FT OF SURGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 FT. - NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS 1 1/2 TO 2 1/2 FT OF SURGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 FT. BEACH EROSION ALONG WITH SOME WASHOVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OCEAN FACING BARRIER BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND DUE TO 7 TO 12 FT WAVES AND THE HIGH STORM TIDE. A FEW EXPOSED WATER FRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED. HIGH WAVES AND HIGH STORM TIDE WILL ALSO CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND ALONG THE TWIN FORKS. A FEW EXPOSED WATER FRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED. && .CLIMATE... THIS BLIZZARD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE LARGEST SINGLE- STORM SNOWFALL IN NYC HISTORY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN SNOWFALLS FOR THE CITY... AMOUNT DATES 26.9 FEB 11-12 2006 25.8 DEC 26-27 1947 21.0 MAR 12-13 1888 20.9 FEB 25-26 2010 20.2 JAN 7-8 1996 20.0 DEC 26-27 2010 19.8 FEB 16-17 2003 19.0 JAN 26-27 2011 18.1 JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941 18.0 DEC 26 1872 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ011-012. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ005>012. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ009-010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ079-081. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ074-075-080-178-179. NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ345. STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-353-355. GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ335-338. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...TONGUE AVIATION...BC MARINE...DS/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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