Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 151822 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 222 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PASS EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN N/W OF NYC WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOK MAINLY ON TRACK. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SEA BREEZES ALREADY OCCURRING AT SOME COASTAL CT SITES AND WILL MOVE INTO OTHER COASTAL SITES AS WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS...EVENTUALLY LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WITH THE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE EFFECTIVE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. POPS INCREASE LATE...AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS FOR NEAR NYC AND N/W BUT MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP AND LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE LOST AND OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3 GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A W/NW FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WED NIGHT. AS THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT SUN AS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR WITH ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST A FEW HOURS WITH CEILINGS 4000-6000 FT. HAVE PLAYED THAT WAY IN TAFS. PROBABILITY OF -SHRA WITH THE TROUGH HAS DECREASED...SO HAVE SCALED BACK TO JUST VCSH IN TAFS...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE MAINTAINED -SHRA IN PREVAILING. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT WHERE SEABREEZE HAS KICKED IN AT KBDR AND KGON. DO EXPECT SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND KHPN. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW CITY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN BECOME W-NW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS HIGH. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE REACHING LGA IS MODERATE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS MODERATE-HIGH. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS MODERATE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS MODERATE-HIGH. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. .FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS WED-FRI. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK A MODERATE NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD AND THE STRENGTHENING E/NE FLOW AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JM/JMC/PW HYDROLOGY...JM

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