Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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100 FXUS61 KOKX 250858 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 458 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak low pressure troughs forming over land each day will move offshore each night through Tuesday night, while strong high pressure remains well to the southwest. The high will eventually build in on Wednesday. A warm front will approach on Thursday and move through at night. A cold front approaching from the north on Friday will stall nearby into the weekend, with unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Aloft, shortwave over the Great Lakes region this morning looks to pass well to the north through the day. At the sfc, weak trough develops this afternoon, with SW or S flow ahead of it, and westerly flow behind it. Plenty sunshine in the morning will give way to a few afternoon clouds, with generally dry conditions. Higher resolution models point to isolated shower activity this afternoon, but with weak instability and meager moisture and lift, do believe anything would be isolated. Temperatures look quite seasonable, and a few degrees lower than yesterday. Readings in the 80s expected across the region, with locations east of the trough slightly cooler due to onshore winds this afternoon. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Suffolk beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Sfc trough moves east tonight, with winds veering to the west/NW. Yet another weak sfc trough develops over the area Monday. Aloft, heights fall to the west of the area as next shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region. Any shower weakens this evening, with dry conditions anticipated tonight. On Monday, more of the same, with morning sunshine giving way to a few afternoon clouds. Cannot rule out an isolated shower interior Monday. Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast tonight and Monday, with lower humidity levels. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Looks fairly dry with comfortable humidity and slightly below normal temperatures through mid week. A warm front approaches on Thursday as low pressure passes across southern Canada. In its wake, a cold front sags south into NY State on Friday. The front becomes stationary near the region into the weekend - which appears will be "unsettled." Upper trough axis approaches Tuesday, passing Tuesday night. Perhaps a tad more instability Tuesday and pseudo cold FROPA could trigger a shower. Wednesday is dry and then warm advection starts in on Thursday. Frontal boundary in the region, or just north, on Friday and have POPs in for TSRA. Looks to remain unsettled through the holiday weekend at this time. Temps come back to near seasonable on Thursday and then go above Friday into the weekend. No heat issues foreseen though. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure well to our south and west will be in control for the most part through the TAF period. A weak disturbance well to the NW will approach the region late today, more so for far NW terminals (KSWF and KHPN). Slight chance of a late day, evening shower or thunderstorm for these far NW terminals, but confidence is too low to put in TAF at this time. VFR thru the TAF period. Timing and northern extent of wind changes only at moderate confidence level. Sea breezes are expected to develop Sunday late morning/afternoon, but exact timing of onset may be delayed by an hour or two from what is in TAFS. Locations like KBDR, and KLGA confidence is lower here regarding seabreeze onset and duration this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday Night...VFR. .Monday...VFR. Coastal sea breezes expected, Slight chance of late day shra/tstm for NW terminals. .Tuesday...VFR. Chance to slight chance of late day shra/tstm. .Wednesday...VFR. .Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE... Lingering rough ocean seas subside as the day progresses. Will cancel western ocean waters, west of fire Island Inlet. As the day progresses, seas do subside across the remainder of the ocean waters. For the longer term, tranquil on Monday and continuing through Thursday morning. Ocean seas will likely build to SCA criteria late Thursday and continue as such on Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through at least the end of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are running very high, especially during the nighttime high tide cycles. Will need to watch high tide cycle tonight for localized minor coastal flooding. Main area to watch would be across the Nassau south shore bays, where water levels should briefly touch or barely exceed minor thresholds. && .EQUIPMENT... * The KOKX Doppler Weather Radar (WSR-88D) remains unavailable due to required maintenance. The radar could return to service as early as Sunday. * Surface Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) are not available. Observations from KHPN (White Plains, NY and KHVN (New Haven,CT) are being disseminated through backup methods. All is due to an FAA communication line outage. Return to service time is unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...Tongue/PW AVIATION...JE MARINE...PW HYDROLOGY...PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW EQUIPMENT...

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