Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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602 FXUS61 KOKX 030233 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 933 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A series of disturbances will push across New England and the Canadian Maritimes through Saturday night resulting in gusty northwest winds across the area. High pressure builds Sunday, then gives way to a weak disturbance Sunday night into Monday. High pressure builds in late Monday into Tuesday. A frontal system will approach for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Earlier radar returns with a few sprinkle across southern Connecticut have dissipated in the downsloping northwest flow and as the area moved into drier air. Gusty winds have increased as low level winds have increased. Also upper shortwave and trough was moving off the Long Island coast. Updated the winds, temperatures, and dew points for the current conditions and trends. Gusty downsloping winds will continues overnight as the surface pressure gradient will remain tight enough and low level winds remain around 35 KTS. Lows will be a little lower than Friday morning`s with colder air moving into the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The first trough and associated energy rotates offshore and is followed by a second disturbance with associated mid-level energy that rotates across northern New England toward Boston tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. As a result, we may get some breaks in the clouds at times, especially toward the coast as the flow remains offshore and the northwesterly flow off the terrain may aid in breaking up some of the lower clouds around. The surface pressure gradient remains tight and winds in the 925-700 mb level increase to around 35 kts, so gusts again over 30 mph can be expected through early Saturday evening. Temps will be a little below normal for highs. Winds will start to drop off Saturday night as the energy works offshore and high pressure at the surface combined with mid-level ridging builds in from the west. Clouds should clear on out and with less wind, expect a chillier night. The coldest spots well north and west of The City and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island will drop into the 20s with readings in The City in the mid to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak ridge aloft Sunday gives way to weak shortwave and progressive pattern. Southern stream shortwave moves out of Mexico, and tracks across Texas Monday before weakening as it moves quickly across the southeast states Tuesday. Meanwhile, closed northern stream low moves across central Canada, making slow progress toward the Great Lakes mid week, then into New England late in the week. Differences noted in position and strength of this impressive trough is moves moves east late in the week. At the surface, high pressure builds Sunday through Monday. Two areas of low pressure will form along this frontal boundary. One over the Southeast that will push off the southeast coast Tuesday night, then head east. The other will develop over the Ohio Valley and pass north of the area into Wednesday. These systems associated with southern stream shortwave mentioned earlier. Cold air damming signature noted for Tuesday, so precipitation may start off as snow inland again, then change over to rain, with a mixture of rain and snow Tuesday night. Again, QPF is expected to be light. As for Sunday night, upper trough could result in a few rain/snow showers as it moves through. ECMWF is much wetter than the other model solutions, less than a tenth of an inch. Based on this, upped pops slightly, but would not be surprised to see very little qpf. Worth watching. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal through mid week. Temps could jump slightly ahead of late week trough. Then leaned toward colder numbers Friday, closer to WPC and away from model blend. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Strong low pressure in the Canadian maritimes will slowly drift offshore overnight. Meanwhile high pressure builds into the Ohio valley. VFR through the period. SCT-BKN cigs 4-6kft will dissipate overnight, especially for eastern terminals. Gusts will persist around 20 kt for the city and coastal terminals overnight, with gusts periodically dropping out for interior TAF sites after 06z. On Saturday, the gradient tightens and additional NW gusts are expected. A few NW peak gusts could exceed 30 kt at times by early afternoon, with peak gusts in the 15-20z timeframe. Wind direction should be very close or just to the right of 310-320 magnetic during the day. Gusts will start to decrease after 0z Sunday. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday night-Sunday...VFR. .Monday..VFR...Low chc of early morning MVFR. .Tuesday...Morning VFR...chc of MVFR in the afternoon. .Wednesday...Morning MVFR with a mixture of rain and snow for north and west terminals with rain across southern and eastern terminals...with chc of sub VFR into the afternoon in rain showers.
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&& .MARINE... Gusty northwest winds will continue on the coastal waters through Saturday afternoon as a series of disturbances works across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Given the northwest wind trajectory, the highest waves will be well offshore as well as toward the southeast end of The Sound and toward the mouth of New York Harbor. A Small Craft Advisory was extended through 23Z Saturday based on a tight pressure gradient and the potential for winds to gust as high as 30 to perhaps 35 kts. There are fairly strong winds aloft through Saturday evening, however, an inversion looks to keep most of the strongest momentum trapped and from reaching the surface. Wave heights will mainly be 4 to 7 feet on the ocean. Winds will start to decrease Saturday evening, though the Small Craft Advisory may need to be extended a but if winds are slower to drop off. As high pressure builds Sunday and Monday, winds diminish and seas remain rather tranquil. Expect conditions to deteriorate Tuesday into Wednesday as two areas of low pressure approach the waters, and winds increase ahead of these lows. Seas expected to build, but lowered forecast below Wave Watch III output. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant precipitation (greater than a half inch) is forecast through Monday. Unsettled weather is possible mid to late week next week. However, no significant precipitation (greater than a half inch) is forecast at this time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CS NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...CS LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JE MARINE...MET/PW/CS HYDROLOGY...PW/CS

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