Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220254 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1054 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure moves across the region late tonight. High pressure then dominates the upcoming week. A cold front approaches on Friday with high pressure returning for next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Weak 700-500 hPa shortwave supporting showers over the region should exit to the east by 6z...so showers should come to an end from W to E by then. Winds will become light once the rain ends and would expect fog development...generally N and W of NYC...until NW winds increase around daybreak. Otherwise...minor changes were made to the remainder of the forecast for tonight with this update.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Heights will be rising through Monday as the trough lifts into New England and eastern Canadian. The upper flow then becomes zonal through Monday night. With a rather strong push of cold advection and 30KT low level winds during the day Monday, and with good mixing will be a gusty day. The cold advection ends quickly Monday evening and surface high pressure builds in. Winds decouple and with clear skies and much lower dew points, temperatures will drop off. Went close to the guidance temperatures and this may not be low enough. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly dry with increasing heat and humidity through the week as heights rise from the combination of northern stream ridging and the northern extent of strong deep anticyclone over the southeast/Gulf states. At the surface...high pressure moves offshore on Tue with a return flow developing. Tue will be a sunny day with low humidity and temps generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The SW flow will then gradually pump in a warmer and more humid airmass through the end of the week. A cold front approaches from the west on Fri...and passes through Fri night...but pcpn associated with it may erode before making to the local area due to the strong subsidence intruding to the south. Have maintained low chc pops as a result. Dry weather then returns for the weekend as another high builds in from the west with temps remaining above normal. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A trough of low pressure crosses the area tonight, followed by a cold front on Monday. Mainly VFR (IFR KGON), with occasional MVFR as showers move through. Could also see some MVFR fog at KTEB/KSWF/KHPN into the overnight hours before winds pick-up. Winds veer to the NW behind the front overnight, then become gusty Monday morning (20-25kt gusts) and remain so through the day. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Tuesday THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday evening...VFR. NW winds G15-20kt likely early. .Late Monday night-Thursday...VFR. .Thursday night-Friday...Mainly VFR, with brief period of MVFR possible in any showers and/or thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE...
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Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track. Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft levels into the overnight hours. Winds shift to NW behind a surface trough late tonight and may approach 25 KT. Gusts may also be also be near 25 KTS during the day Monday...especially in the afternoon and near shore. Seas are expected to remain below 5 feet tonight through Monday night. Sub-advsy levels are then expected through the remainder of the forecast period with generally a weak pressure gradient.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Generally less than 1/4 inch of rain is expected across the area...with the exception of S CT where up to around 1/2 of an inch is possible where heavier showers are occurring. No hydrologic concerns are anticipated. Dry weather is then expected through at least Thursday.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels will approach minor flood levels across the western Great South Bay during this evening`s high tide cycle. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/MET NEAR TERM...24/Maloit/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...24/Maloit/MET HYDROLOGY...24/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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