Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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808 FXUS61 KOKX 101804 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 104 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHEAST. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT IN TANDEM WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT THIS AFTN WITH A WLY FLOW. GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH AT THE COAST. TEMPS WERE RAISED A BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE NEARLY SATURATED H85-H7 REGION TNGT. THIS LEVEL WILL BE THERMALLY CONDUCIVE TO SNOW PRODUCTION. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED FLURRIES IN THE FCST. FOR THU...H5 TROF AXIS...INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO SCT SNOW SHWRS. SOME OF THESE COULD BE LOCALLY HVY WITH THE NAM EVEN PRODUCING ABOUT 100 J/KG OF SBCAPE. WENT WITH SCT COVERAGE WORDING IN THE FCST. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN ON UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT AND PRODUCE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL THEREFORE BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHWRS OCCUR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BRISK NW FLOW AFTER COLD FROPA THU SHOULD PEAK DURING THE EVENING...WITH POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING ADVY CRITERIA IN NYC AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THU NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH IN TANDEM WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND TEENS NYC/COASTAL SECTIONS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 0 TO 5 ABOVE. FAIR ON FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRI NIGHT...PASSING THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SAT MORNING. MEANWHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRI...WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE MADE A HABIT OF TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN MODEL FCST...AND SO INCREASED GUIDANCE POP A LITTLE TO BRING CHANCES TO NYC EAST FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THEN A QUICK SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS AGREE ON H8 TEMPS AS COLD AS -29C TO -30C APPROACHING LATE SAT NIGHT...WHICH SUPPORTS FCST LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO ZERO IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...0 TO 5 BELOW MOST ELSEWHERE...AND A LITTLE COLDER IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH NW WINDS 10-20 MPH WOULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND 25 BELOW ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR. THIS SHOT OF FRIGID AIR SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PASSES EAST MON MORNING. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...FCST LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT OF 10-15 IN NYC AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE COULD END UP AT LEAST SEVERAL DEG COLDER IF CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HOLDS OFF UNTIL MON. HIGHS ON MON QUICKLY MODERATE TO 30-35. OVERRUNNING THEN SETS UP MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THAT TIME...THEN POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM NYC NORTH/WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT BUT A WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR REMAINS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP WELL INTO THE 40S TUE AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIP TO ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SNOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDS WILL LIFT TO VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 20Z. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AS WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE GUSTS SUBSIDE ELSEWHERE. WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS. W-NW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ON THURSDAY. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. W-NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS. .THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING NW WINDS. .FRIDAY...VFR. .SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. .SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA COND THRU TNGT ON THE OCEAN. REISSUED FOR NY HARBOR WHERE GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ALL AREAS UNDER A GALE WATCH FOR THU AND THU NGT WITH INCREASING WLY FLOW. QUIET DAYTIME FRI WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THEN SCA CONDS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GALES ON THE OCEAN SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AND SCA CONDS ELSEWHERE AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA CONDS ALL WATERS ON SUNDAY SHOULD QUIET DOWN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. && .HYDROLOGY... LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND PASSING LOW TO THE SE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH...WITH ANY HIGHER AMTS OVER SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT QPF OF OVER AN INCH...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP MON NIGHT FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW...THEN AS MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN ON TUE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR LI SOUND BASED ON THE LATEST WATER LEVELS FALLING JUST SHORT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT...WITH ANY BRIEF LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY BEING RELEGATED TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. && .CLIMATE... WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED. HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS... STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH FOR 2/14 FOR 2/14 NYC...........2 (1916) / 2.............17 (1979) / 16 LGA...........1 (1979) / 3.............15 (1979) / 18 JFK...........4 (1979) / 2.............17 (1979) / 17 ISP...........7 (2015) / 0.............26 (1987) / 15 EWR...........0 (1979) / 0.............15 (1979) / 19 BDR...........3 (2015*) / -1.............18 (1979) / 15 *IN 1979 AS WELL && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN/DW SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...MPS MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/DW HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...//

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