Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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044 FXUS61 KOKX 060910 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 410 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA WILL HELP TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. DO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...POSSIBLY FILTERED THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SFC HIGH REMAINS NEARBY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD YIELD TO DEVELOPING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MOST DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD TAKE PLACE WITH SNOW PACK AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT LIGHT SW WIND FLOW MAY PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING. ON SUNDAY...TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH MANY FEATURES IN PLAY. ONCE AGAIN...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST...DRIVING DEEP SFC LOW OFFSHORE...PASSING SOMEWHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THEN LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THIS ONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA. CONCERN FOR EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF FIRST LOW OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY NEXT LOW AND TRACK TUESDAY. LARGE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREADS ON QPF/SNOW. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM AND SREF MUCH WETTER MONDAY AS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF...AND QPF SHIELD EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD...OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY WPC AND LATEST MODELS BLEND SUITE. WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE. CANNOT THOUGH RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVIER QPF IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR SUCH. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SNOW AT TIMES MAY VERY WELL OCCUR MONDAY THRU WED. HOWEVER...HAVE MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS AND WHERE ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS SET UP. STAY TUNED. ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. .SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT. .TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY. .WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WEAKENS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUN NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHC FOR GALES CURRENTLY EXISTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND/BAYS SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. THE STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MON. OTHERWISE...SCA LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. SCA IS THEN LIKELY ON MOST OF THE WATERS INTO TUE AS A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS THEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WED FROM A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM. WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR NERLY WINDS MONDAY AND TUE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR CSTL FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JMC/PW AVIATION...24 MARINE...24 HYDROLOGY...PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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