Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280021 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 821 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will pass through early this evening with high pressure building east from the Ohio Valley. The high passes south of the area Wednesday afternoon and night. A frontal system passes north of the region Thursday through Friday night. A cold front approaches Saturday and moves across Sunday into Sunday night. The front may linger south of the region early next week, otherwise weak high pressure returns. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Much of the shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased, with mainly scattered showers remaining as a weak surface trough and cold front move through the area. Updated probabilities through 02Z as HRR continues to indicate scattered showers. High pressure over the Ohio Valley builds east overnight with clear skies and W/NW winds. Low temperatures will remain just below normal level. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough passes offshore early Wednesday with height rises and plenty of subsidence. Surface high pressure passes to the south off the Mid Atlantic coast in the afternoon. This will result in another seasonably cool day with low humidity. W-NW winds will gradually veer around to the SW in the afternoon. Highs Wednesday will once again be just below normal, generally in the upper 70s to around 80. Lows will be a bit milder and closer to normal Wednesday night. There is a low risk for the development of rip currents Wednesday at the ocean beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure slides offshore Thursday. A weak shortwave will move through Thursday evening and into Thursday night, resulting in a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Unsettled weather expected Friday and through the weekend as multiple shortwaves are expected to impact the region. There is a chance for showers/thunderstorms through this period but mainly with peak heating during the afternoon/evening hours. High pressure builds briefly on Monday then showers may develop once again on Tuesday as the next frontal system approaches the area from the northwest. Temperatures start off near Thursday but then trend warmer for the rest of the forecast period. It will be getting warmer and more humid. The temperatures will average about 3-5 degrees above normal. Temperatures are forecast to be well into the 80s Thursday through Monday with some locations in the NY Metro and Northeast NJ reaching near 90 for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A trough of low pressure pushes east through the terminals early this evening. VFR. Shower/TSTM activity expected to diminish this evening, and not a high enough chance or long enough duration at any given terminal to mention in TAFs. VCTS however possible at KSWF before 01z. Winds shift WNW at 10kt or less tonight. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Shift to WNW might happen before 01z. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: Shift to WNW might be off by an hour or two. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday night...VFR. .Thursday...VFR. SW G20-25kt aftn/evening. Chance of an evening shower/thunderstorm. .Friday...Mainly VFR. SW G20-kt aftn/evening. Chance of mainly aftn/evening shra/tstm. .Saturday...Mainly VFR. SW G20-kt aftn/evening. Chance of shra/tstm. .Sunday...Mainly VFR. Chance of shra/tstm. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday. Small craft advisory conditions possible Thursday through Friday night for all ocean waters. Ocean seas are forecast to linger in small craft advisory conditions Saturday with waves near 5 ft particularly east of Fire Island Inlet. Much of the remainder of the weekend will have below small craft advisory conditions expected. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next week. && .EQUIPMENT... Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) may be sporadic. Observations from KHPN (White Plains NY) and KHVN (New Haven CT) are being disseminated through backup methods. All is due to an FAA communication line outage. Return to full service time is unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/DW NEAR TERM...MET/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...JC MARINE...Fig/MET/DW HYDROLOGY...Fig/DW EQUIPMENT...

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