Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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879 FXUS61 KOKX 171413 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1013 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A broad area of high pressure builds in from the west today. The high will remain in control through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Slight adjustment to temperatures and winds for the next few hours, otherwise forecast mainly on track. Frosty conditions did occur across a good swath of Central and Northern Orange County this morning...otherwise temperatures recover for the late morning and early afternoon. An upper shortwave axis moves east today, with slight mean upper troughing in its wake. At the surface, high pressure to the west gradually builds to the south of the region. Any wind gusts this morning will subside quickly. By the afternoon winds go variable to a light WSW direction with high pressure starting to settle on top of the region. Another slightly below seasonable day expected with cold pool overhead, despite wall to wall sunshine. Temps likely only topping out in the upper 50s to near 60 for most locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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Slight shortwave upper ridging builds into the region during this period, while surface high pressure gradually slides south of the region. Good radiational cooling conditions likely tonight across interior with a favorable waa aloft setup for decoupling; allowing temps to fall into the lower to mid 30s once again. Frost conditions are likely once again late tonight across the interior of southern CT and for the suburbs NW of NYC metro. After collab with surrounding offices, will hold off on Frost Advisory just yet to see if any interior areas experience a hard freeze early this morning, ending their growing season. For city and coast, increasing potential for mixing as the night wears on in strengthening return flow, which may keep or bounce temps into the 40s. Lower 50s likely for the NYC metro. Sunny skies and a gradual moderation in temps begins on Wednesday as SW return flow develops around the high to the south. Temperatures should warm to slightly above seasonable levels in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridging both aloft and at the surface prevails through much of the period. Only a weak and dry cold front passage occurs Thursday night as the flow aloft turns cyclonic for a short period. The next chance of rainfall doesn`t appear to arrive until Monday night with the approach of the next cold front. Expect abundant sunshine throughout the period with daytime highs averaging around 7-10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure sets up just southwest of the region through Wednesday. VFR through the TAF period. Northerly winds will gradually back through the day. Occasional gusts are possible this morning, especially between 12 and 16z. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is green...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is green...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to around 15kt possible through 15z. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to around 15kt possible 12-15z. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to around 15kt possible 12-15z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Wednesday-Saturday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Marginal SCA gusts and seas are limited to the ocean waters this morning, and will fall below SCA by late morning as the pressure gradient weakens. High pressure prevails through the upcoming weekend with sub SCA conditions. The only exception is that SCA conditions may be approached Thursday night on the eastern ocean waters ahead of a weak cold front with SW winds gusting up to 20 kt. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues expected through this weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008. NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>070. NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/JE NEAR TERM...JE/NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...12 MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV

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