Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 270223 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1023 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...AND TRACK TOWARDS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND WAS THROUGH WESTERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY...AND TO COASTAL CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AT 02Z. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IMPROVED TO A MILE OR MORE SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED. LINE WAS WEAKENING AS STORMS MOVED INTO MORE STABLE AIR THROUGH CONNECTICUT AND EAST OF NEW YORK CITY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BUT THE APPROACHING UPR JET COULD SUSTAIN LGT RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE MRNG. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFFSHORE AS THE H5 SHTRWV APPROACHES. THE NAM HAD HINTED AT THIS YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE LONE SOLN WITH THE 12Z SUITE...HAS LATCHED ON. THIS WOULD BRING PCPN IN LATE FRI AFTN/EVE...THEN SPREADING WWD FRI NGT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PCPN WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPR TROF MOVES IN. WITH NLY COMPONENT FLOW...THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR EVEN DOWN TO THE COASTS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH BENIGN WX. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY SHARPER AND LESS WAVELENGTH OF TROUGHS AND CORRESPONDING RIDGES. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A LONGER WAVELENGTH AND HENCE CLOSER TO A ZONAL TYPE OF FLOW OCCURRING WHICH WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED. THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE BROAD WITH LESS WIND SPEED FOR LATER NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...ONE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW DEPENDING ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE 40N AND 65W COORDINATES. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...MOVING IT FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE ECMWF...NAM...AND CMC ARE REMARKABLY SLOWER. ONCE THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL GAIN MORE INFLUENCE AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER LOW MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND IT LEADING INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES IN. IN TERMS OF WEATHER...OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW. QUITE THE UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH NAM AND ECMWF SHOWING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WHILE CMC AND GFS SHOW A LIGHT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. CURRENT FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN AVERAGE OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND. OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MORE IN THE NATURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NEXT THURSDAY. THESE ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOWS. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CONDS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATION BETWEEN VFR AND IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS EVE. AT 00Z...COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING ORANGE COUNTY AND WESTERN NJ. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA MAY MIX UP THE CIGS WITH VRB CONDS CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS TO MOSTLY PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...THEN MVFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY EASTERN TERMINALS. OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER CIGS ARE ABOVE OR BELOW 2K FT. KGON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR LOWER UNTIL FRI MORNING. VFR CONDS RETURN W TO E FRI AFTN ALTHOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. COULD SEE GUSTS 25-30KT WITH THE FROPA THIS EVE. THEN GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED AFT 04Z AT NYC TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 02Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 02Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN VFR. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 03Z WITH LIFR CONDS IMPROVING TO IFR...THEN MVFR AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI MORNING...THEN VFR. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA AROUND 04Z WITH LIFR CONDS IMPROVING TO IFR...THEN MVFR AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI MORNING...THEN VFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRI NIGHT-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. N WINDS G15-20KT. .SAT NIGHT-.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. .MON...VFR. SW WINDS 15G20KT...BECOMING WNW AT NIGHT. .TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. && .MARINE... WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST WATERS...AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS. UPDATED WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN WATERS WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. POTENTIAL OF OCNL SCA GUSTS ON THE SOUND IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THRU. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALSO LIKELY TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DISSIPATES IT LATE. SCA COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN FRI...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT LEAST THRU FRI NGT. SCA POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA IS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SCA CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIODS. && .HYDROLOGY...
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UP TO A QUARTER INCH WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF PCPN IS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ATTM. CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335- 340-345-350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ345.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC NEAR TERM...JMC/MET SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...24 MARINE...JMC/JM/MET HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM

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