Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 170819 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 319 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure approaches from the west today and moves across the area tonight. Low pressure will then track through southern Ontario and Quebec this weekend, with a couple of frontal passages Saturday night and late Sunday. High pressure will builds in for early to mid next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Sunny and dry conditions are expected today as weakening high pressure approaches. High temperatures today will climb into the upper 30s to near 40. This will be right around or a degree or two below normal for this time of year. A MAV/MET/ECS blend was in good agreement and used for temperatures today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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A warm front approaches tonight and moves across the area Saturday morning. High and mid level clouds increase through the night. Cloud cover Saturday morning associated with the frontal passage should give way to afternoon sunshine, allowing temps for NE NJ/NYC metro to reach the upper 50s, but holding in the upper 40s and lower 50s for the coast. Conditions, even with the frontal passage, are expected to remain dry. Tonight`s lows fall into the 20s and 30s. Temperatures should be a few degrees above normal tonight, and well above normal on Saturday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Near zonal flow will give way to brief NE troughing early next week, before transitioning to sharp ridging toward mid week. In terms of sensible weather this is translating into what looks like a rather quiet and mild period of weather. A northern stream shortwave and associated low pressure system will track across Southern Ontario/Quebec this weekend, with a weak cold front passing through the region Saturday Night. There wont be much change in the airmass behind this front, and we should see another day of above normal temperatures on Sunday. Meanwhile, a cutoff low from the SW will shear NE across the CONUS, but should remain separate from northern stream flow and keep precip south of the region. Models coming into agreement with another northern stream shortwave amplifying and digging through the NE US Sunday night into Monday. This should have a secondary cold front come through the region late Sunday, with a brief shot of CAA and a return to more seasonable temps Monday and Tuesday. Once again this frontal passage appears to be dry. Thereafter, good model agreement on deep layered ridging building back into the region midweek. No signals for organized precip, with once again a moderation in temps to above seasonable norms in return flow.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure ridge shifts in today. VFR. NW winds diminishing this afternoon. Gusts occurring mostly 13/14z thru 19/20z. Winds prevailing south of 310 magnetic. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional through around 13z. End time of frequent gusts may be off by 1-2 hours. KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional through around 13z. End time of frequent gusts may be off by 1-2 hours. KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 16-19 KT possible thru 14z before becoming more frequent thereafter. End time of frequent gusts may be off by 1-2 hours. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 16-19 KT possible thru 14z before becoming more frequent thereafter. End time of frequent gusts may be off by 1-2 hours. KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 17-20 KT possible thru 14z before becoming more frequent thereafter. End time of frequent gusts may be off by 1-2 hours. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 16-19 KT possible thru 14z before becoming more frequent thereafter. End time of frequent gusts may be off by 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Late Tonight-Tuesday...VFR. NW winds G15-25kt possible Sunday- Monday.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA continues on all waters except NY Harbor, the Western Sound, and the South Shore Bays. There could still be a couple of gusts to 25 KT for the pre-dawn hours, but not enough to warrant the continuation of the advisory here. SCA otherwise remains unchanged with the Eastern Sound and Bays going through noon, and the ocean waters through the afternoon. There could still however be gusts to 25 KT lingering into the afternoon in the vicinity of the Race. Sub-SCA condition then prevail tonight through tomorrow with a high pressure ridge and weak pressure gradient shifting through. Winds then pick up again Saturday night into Sunday with the approach and passage of a cold front, but probably with winds and seas remaining below advisory criteria. A stronger cold front then follows on Sunday night, with marginal SCA conds possible primarily on the ocean waters late at night into Monday. Diminishing winds and seas follow Monday night and Tuesday with another high pressure ridge shifting into the region.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the next 7 days as any snow melt will be gradual. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ330-340.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/NV NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...BC/NV AVIATION...JC MARINE...JC HYDROLOGY...BC

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