Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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080 FXUS61 KOKX 270145 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 945 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. A cold front will pass through the area Monday into Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Radar mosaic showing the inversion developing throughout the nern conus. This should depress convective initiation in the very near term. Potential for a few elevated shwrs and tstms mainly aft 4z with a weak h85 speed max. The feature cannot be ignored because both the NAM and GFS have it...and the signature appears to be showing up on water vapor over nern WV. As a result...carried a 20-30 pop for approximately the wrn half of the cwa. No changes to temps with lows along the coast right around the SST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Bermuda high pressure and upper ridging remains across the region Friday and Friday night. Heights will be rising through the period. Again a weak surface trough develops across the lower Hudson Valley Friday afternoon. Instability and CAPE will be higher than Thursday and afternoon thunderstorms will be possible inland. Will keep pops at chance, and only a little higher than Thursday. Friday and Friday night will be more humid than Thursday as low level moisture is transported into the region on return flow. Dew points will be rising into the mid 60s, resulting in higher relative humidity levels with afternoon highs similar to Thursdays. There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the Atlantic beaches Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mainly dry conditions expected through the weekend. High temperatures will be in the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s. There is a change of some showers/thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evening...mostly across areas north and west of New York City. A cold front approaches the area on Sunday afternoon, then moves across the area on Monday and Tuesday. As a result expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms during this period. Dry weather returns on Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures Monday through Thursday will be in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Dewpoints will start out in the lower 60s making it feel a bit muggy but, will drop down into the 50s by mid week. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic through Sunday, while a low pressure trough develops each afternoon through Sunday via daytime heating. A cold front will pass through the Monday into Tuesday. Expect primarily VFR conditions and a S-SW flow with local sea breezes, though some locations may see MVFR vsby in light mist or haze late tonight into the early daylight hours. An isolated thunderstorm is possible each afternoon/evening, primarily NW of the NYC metros. Chances are high enough to mention at KSWF via PROB30. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Light mist/haze with MVFR vsby possible 08Z- 12Z. KLGA TAF Comments: Comments: Light mist/haze with MVFR vsby possible 08Z-12Z. Occasional gusts 15-18 kt possible Thu afternoon before sea breeze onset. KEWR TAF Comments: Light mist/haze with MVFR vsby possible 08Z- 12Z. Occasional gusts 15-18 kt possible Thu afternoon. KTEB TAF Comments: Light mist/haze with MVFR vsby possible 08Z- 12Z. Occasional gusts 15-18 kt possible Thu afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Sat through Tue... .Fri Night-Sunday...Primarily VFR with afternoon sea breezes. Isolated to widely scattered late day or early evening showers/thunderstorms are possible, which could bring brief/local MVFR or IFR conditions and gusty winds. .Sunday night-Monday night...Better chance for showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions. .Tuesday...Primarily VFR with afternoon sea breezes. Isolated to widely scattered late day or early evening showers/thunderstorms are possible, which could bring brief/local MVFR or lower conditions.
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&& .MARINE... The western periphery of Bermuda high pressure remains across the waters tonight through Friday night. Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft levels into Friday night. Southerly winds do increase somewhat Friday afternoon into the evening as the pressure gradient force increases, and ocean seas may approach small craft levels at that time. Expect small craft advisory level conditions across the area waters Saturday through the middle of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible inland this evening and again Friday afternoon and evening. No significant widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. Although widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with the passage of a cold front Monday and Tuesday, widespread flooding is not expected at this time. Localized urban or poor drainage flooding is possible from heavier downpours. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/MET NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION... MARINE...FIG/MET HYDROLOGY...FIG/MET

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