Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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321 FXUS61 KOKX 270606 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 106 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the mid Atlantic Coast will bring milder weather on Monday, but then unsettled weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong cold frontal passage Wednesday evening returns cold, but seasonable weather for the end of the week, with the chance for light snow for early Friday. It`s a dry weekend and warming up on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Clear skies overnight. Winds taking a little longer to diminish and back SW as the high builds in. Lows in the 20s with 30s in the NY Metro--still a few degrees above average. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... With the high having moved off the coast - that sets up the start of a prolonged warm advection period. Clouds increase through the day and it`s mostly cloudy in the afternoon - this keeps temps in the lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NWP appears fairly clustered and consistent with the overall pattern, but not without lots of local forecast problems this week. 1. Tuesday - Wednesday. WAA advection pattern will likely bring light RA by late AFTN TUE there persists on and off into WED AFTN. We have likely POPs, but expect these to go to categorical as timing of PCPN becomes clearer. There`s lots of spread in the temperature guidance for Tuesday and have gone with the cooler side (GFS) due to the onset of PCPN and the extensive cloud cover. That being said, Temps should get well into the 60s by WED away from the coast - of course with a strong gradient at the coast. Advection fog also becomes a forecast problem and can see repeat of a few days ago. 2. Wednesday AFTN/EVE. Instability is once again present along with very strong shear in excess of 60 KT. LI`s of -2 C and Total Totals in the lower 50s are not to be ignored this time of year as we saw Saturday night. Thus have included TS in the forecast. No enhanced wording, but that may come as we get closer. 3. Thursday. Windy with steady or slowly falling temps. Think 40 mph should do it for the winds, but we could get close to wind advisory criteria. 4. Friday. Clipper system passes the region. Looking at the GEFS suggest much of the energy passes across up State and across New England. Thus, keeping just a 30 POP for light snow. The operation GFS is on the higher end of the QPF across the OKX Forecast area. On the other hand, the Operational ECMWF is south of the area. Temps are FCST slight below normal for Saturday, but rebound to the lower 50s for Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR through the TAF period as high pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast moves east. High confidence in WSW flow less than 10 kt becoming SW and then increasing to 10-15G20KT by late morning and into the afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Late Monday night...VFR. .Tuesday...Chance of light rain/MVFR conds. .Tuesday night-Wednesday morning...Areas of fog with light rain continuing. MVFR/IFR and possibly lower. LLWS possible with SW winds 45-55 kt at 2kft. SW winds G15-20KT Wednesday morning. .Wednesday afternoon-Wednesday night...Showers and a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR or lower possible. SW winds G20-30KT. Winds become westerly late Wednesday night. .Thursday...VFR. W-WNW winds G20-25KT. .Friday...MVFR/IFR possible with a chance of light snow. WNW winds G20KT.
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&& .MARINE... SCA conds continue on the ocean this evening, but should subside by midnight W of Fire Island Inlet. Sea throughout should fall below 5 ft later tonight, but then return to the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet Mon afternoon/night via SW flow increasing to 15-20 kt on Mon. For the rest of the forecast, Tuesday will have increasing southerly flow but will still be below SCA levels. The region will be in between the high pressure well offshore and a low pressure area moving into the Midwest. The pressure gradient gradually tightens through midweek with a strong cold front eventually approaching from the west. The resulting increasing SW flow will build seas to SCA range beginning Tuesday night and continuing through midweek. Ahead and just behind the cold front will be potentially the highest of winds, when gales will be possible for the eastern waters and the ocean Wednesday through Wednesday evening with otherwise SCA winds for all waters. After this cold front moves across Wednesday night, there will be gusty NW flow and cold air advection. The ocean will likely remain at SCA levels through the rest of the marine forecast period through Friday. SCA level winds will persist Wednesday night through Thursday and come to a brief lull below SCA Thursday night before returning to around SCA levels Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... No Hydrologic Impacts are anticipated over the next 7 days. Rainfall in the Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday evening should average around 0.5" with local amounts up to 1 inch. Release from spring snow melt is occurring down the Connecticut and Housatonic Rivers. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/Tongue NEAR TERM...Goodman/Tongue SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...Tongue AVIATION...JE/Goodman MARINE...Goodman/JM HYDROLOGY...Tongue

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