Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 020301 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1101 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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SEVERAL ENHANCED AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE DCA-PHI CORRIDOR IS PUSHING NE. THIS AREA IS LOSING ITS DEEP CONVECTION AS IT WORKS INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS UPPER FORCING FROM AN INCOMING NORTHERN BRANCH TROF AND RRQ OF JET...AS WELL AS 85H-70H FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO WORK INTO THE AREA. EXPECT PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. PINPOINTING THESE AXES OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE DIFFICULT. IN ADDITION...COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON A MODERATE NE FLOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN COOLER TEMPS AND LOWS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ACCOMPANYING URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. SOME SMALLER STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN NJ...COULD ALSO EXCEED BANKFULL. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT EASTERN LI FOR THIS THREAT. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MAINE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH...WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT...GRADUALLY GETS PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N/NW. A TRANSITION TO MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN AND DECREASING PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS LLJ AND INSTABILITY AXIS GETS PUSHED FARTHER SE. FRONTOGENETIC/DEFORMATION BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED WITH DEEP LIFT OF THE MOIST AIRMASS. A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT EASTERN LI FOR THIS THREAT. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW AND PCPN...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES. GRADUALLY DRYING FROM NW TO SE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR JUNE...WITH LOWS WILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE NIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES OF SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK COUNTY AND A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES FROM NEW YORK CITY TO SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK COUNTY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. AS A RESULT...CAN EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND TEMPS WILL FALL JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES OFFSHORE AS WELL. TEMPS WILL WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND LIKEWISE WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THAT BOUNDARY AND IMPACT THE REGION WITH RAIN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION THRU TUE. MAINLY LIFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL START TO DIMINISH AFTER 16Z TUE. CIGS MAY IMPROVE FOR A TIME TO MVFR AT 1000FT TUE AFTN...BEFORE FALLING TO IFR AGAIN TUE NGT. NE WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10-20 KT TNGT. WINDS COULD ECLIPSE 20 KT AT TIMES THRU 6Z AT KLGA. SPEEDS THEN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON TUE AS THEY BECOME MORE NLY. WINDS GENERALLY BLW 10KT TUE NGT. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. .WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. .FRIDAY...LOW CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE...
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A STEADY MARGINAL SCA E/NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND WEAKEN TUESDAY...WITH SEAS THEN GRADUALLY FALLING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS. ONCE SEAS FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS TUE NIGHT INTO WED....HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 00Z WED FOR ALL BUT EASTERN LI FOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT FROM ANY TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW FLASHY STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IN NE NJ...COULD EXCEED BANKFULL DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 36 HRS. ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG QPF OF 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED INTO TUE EVE BEFORE COMING TO AND END. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078- 080-176>179. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/NV NEAR TERM...NV/DW SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...JMC MARINE...MPS/NV HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV

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