Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241627 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1227 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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One cold front has passed east, and a secondary cold front will pass tonight. High pressure will then build to our southwest from Sunday into Monday. A cold front will move through later Monday. High pressure will build toward the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday and Wednesday, before moving east on Thursday. Unsettled will return for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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After a busy morning, with heavy rain across NYC metro, Long Island, and far SE CT, skies have become mostly sunny on a drying post-frontal NW flow. NW winds were gusting as high as 30 mph in/near NYC, and look to do so into this afternoon. Bumped highs up a little, with lower 90s in urban NE NJ, mid/upper 80s most elsewhere, and upper 70s/lower 80s out east along the coast. Latest beach reports indicate high surf of 5-7 ft and dangerous rip currents across Suffolk, so a high surf advy and rip current risk statement have been issued.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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For tonight, a secondary cold front will move across, with winds becoming more northerly late after its passage. Dry conditions, light winds and continued mostly clear conditions will result in radiational cooling. A vast range of lows will be seen, from upper 50s in rural inland sections to lower 70s in parts of NYC per NAM MOS guidance.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Dry conditions expected on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds toward the Mid Atlantic coast. Expect high temperatures to be in the lower/mid 80s on Sunday. A weak surface cold front will affect the local area Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The system will not have a great deal of moisture associated with it, but cooler temperatures aloft may spark a shower or tstm late Monday into early Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are expected to be from the mid 70s to lower 80s. High pressure continues to build toward the area on Wednesday, and slowly move offshore on Friday. A few showers are possible Friday afternoon. High temperatures will start out near 80 on Wednesday, then slowly increase to mid/upper 80s by Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front pushes across the terminals this morning. High pressure builds into the region tonight and Sunday. A line of showers is now exiting the far eastern terminals. VFR for the remainder of the TAF period after front passes. Winds will switch to west-northwest behind the front. Winds gust to around 20 kt for city terminals until 22z or thereabout. Winds diminish tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday night-Sunday Night...VFR. NW wind early Saturday night, otherwise West wind through Sunday night. .Monday-Tuesday...VFR. A slight chance of shra/tsra Monday afternoon, and a chance of shra/tsra on Tuesday. .Wednesday...VFR. && .MARINE...
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Rough ocean conditions expected into tonight, with W-SW near shore winds gusting to 20 kt. Winds in NYC metro are gusting to 25-30 kt, so also raised SCA for NY Harbor until around sunset.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Flooding threat has ended. See Public Information Statement for area rainfall reports. No further hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week attm.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are running very high, especially during the evening high tide cycles. Less than 1 ft of surge is needed during these evening high tide cycles for minor flooding, and in some cases less then 1/2 ft. The expected S/SW flow is not favorable for surge, but a background anomaly will likely be enough for minor coastal flooding of the most vulnerable coastal locales along the south shore bays of Western Long Island, along Jamaica Bay, and along western Long Island Sound during this time. && .EQUIPMENT...
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KOKX weather radar will be down for maintenance. The radar should return to service some time on Mon Jun 26.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080- 081. High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-081. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/PW NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...BC/JE MARINE...Goodman/PW HYDROLOGY...Goodman/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

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