Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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518 FXUS61 KOKX 151131 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 731 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak warm front passes east of the area today followed by a cold frontal passage tonight. High pressure builds through mid week before a weak cold frontal passage on Thursday. High pressure will then rebuild and prevail through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The dense fog advisory has been cancelled as visibilities have been improving in response to increasing southerly flow. By late morning, flow will shift to a more southwesterly direction, allowing for increased mixing and gradually eroding any remaining fog and stratus. Any breaks in the clouds will be brief as coverage increases again this evening ahead of the cold front. Temperatures will be well above normal to near 80 across portions of New Jersey and in the 70s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Mild conditions will continue through at least the early portion of the evening in southwest flow. The front is expected to slowly move through overnight with an abrupt drop in temperatures from west to east in strong cold advection. Any precipitation will likely be light and post-frontal, with minimal accumulations. By morning, rain will taper off quickly, with gusty northwest flow and more seasonable temperatures expected for the remainder of the day. By comparison, temperatures Monday night will feel significantly cooler than we have experienced recently, though will be closer to climatological normals for the time of year. Should northwest flow slacken more than forecast, temperatures in more rural areas and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island could approach the freezing mark. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The pressure gradient relaxes into the mid week as high pressure builds across the area. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal on Tuesday before slowly moderating through late week. Little sensible weather is expected, though a short wave and attendant cold front will pass to the north for Thursday. Given antecedent dry conditions and its passage more to the north, no precipitation or large temperature drops are expected with its passage. High pressure will rebuild for the remainder of the week with seasonable conditions continuing. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front will approach the region late today, crossing the region tonight. IFR/LIFR in areas of fog, stratus, and drizzle will slowly improve to MVFR through the morning, with VFR likely developing for most terminals in the afternoon. Cold front approaches this evening, crossing tonight. Iso-sct showers along and in wake of passage, with a low prob of MVFR conds. S to SW winds increase to 10 to 15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT this afternoon, continuing for the evening push. Low prob of gusts to 30 kt. Winds shift to NW after 07-10Z with gusts 20-25KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Monday...Low chc for early AM showers and MVFR, otherwise VFR. NW winds G20-25KT. .Tuesday-Thursday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Areas of fog over the eastern forecast waters should improve from w to e through mid morning. Marginal SCA seas will continue on the ocean waters through this morning due to a SE swell. SCA winds and seas expected to build on the ocean in a strengthening SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front this aft/eve, and with the NW flow in its wake late tonight into early Mon morning. Marginal SCA gusts are expected on nearshore waters, pre and post frontal during this time as well. Marginal SCA gusts may continue on the nearshore waters through the day Monday, nonetheless SCA seas are expected to continue on the ocean. Higher confidence in a period of SCA winds re- developing across all waters Mon eve/night in wake of secondary cold front. Thereafter...tranquil conditions are expected from Tuesday into the end of the week as high pressure build in. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues expected through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD NEAR TERM...MD SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...MD AVIATION...NV MARINE...NV HYDROLOGY...MD

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