Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 270609 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 209 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. A cold front will pass through the area Monday into Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Radar mosaic showing the inversion developing throughout the nern conus. This should depress convective initiation in the very near term. Potential for a few elevated shwrs and tstms overnight with a weak h85 speed max. The feature cannot be ignored because both the NAM and GFS have it...and the signature appears to be showing up on water vapor over nern WV. As a result...carried a 20-30 pop for approximately the wrn half of the cwa. No changes to temps with lows along the coast right around the SST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Bermuda high pressure and upper ridging remains across the region Friday and Friday night. Heights will be rising through the period. Again a weak surface trough develops across the lower Hudson Valley Friday afternoon. Instability and CAPE will be higher than Thursday and afternoon thunderstorms will be possible inland. Will keep pops at chance, and only a little higher than Thursday. Friday and Friday night will be more humid than Thursday as low level moisture is transported into the region on return flow. Dew points will be rising into the mid 60s, resulting in higher relative humidity levels with afternoon highs similar to Thursdays. There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the Atlantic beaches Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mainly dry conditions expected through the weekend. High temperatures will be in the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s. There is a change of some showers/thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evening...mostly across areas north and west of New York City. A cold front approaches the area on Sunday afternoon, then moves across the area on Monday and Tuesday. As a result expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms during this period. Dry weather returns on Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures Monday through Thursday will be in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Dewpoints will start out in the lower 60s making it feel a bit muggy but, will drop down into the 50s by mid week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The area will remain on the western side of the Bermuda High into tonight. Maionly VFR through the TAF period. There could be a few hours of MVFR haze this morning at KTEB/KHPN - but confidence in this is diminishing. Appears showers should remain to the west overnight. This afternoon...could see isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly to the n/w of NYC...so have VCSH at KSWF/KHPN. Confidence in the occurence of a shower/thunderstorm at even these terminals is too low to reflect explicitly in the TAFs at this time. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR haze 9-12z. Occasional gusts 15-20kt possible with afternoon seabreeze. Very low chance of afternoon/early evening shower/thunderstrorm. KLGA TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR haze 9-12z. Occasional gusts around 15kt possible with afternoon seabreeze. Very low chance of afternoon/early evening shower/thunderstrorm. KEWR TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR haze 9-12z. Occasional gusts around 15kt possible with afternoon seabreeze. Very low chance of afternoon/early evening shower/thunderstrorm. KTEB TAF Comments: There is a chance that the MVFR haze might not occur. Occasional gusts around 15kt possible with afternoon seabreeze. Low chance of afternoon/early evening shower/thunderstrorm. KHPN TAF Comments: End time of light and variable winds could be off +/- 1-2 hours. There is a chance that the MVFR haze might not occur. Occasional gusts around 15kt possible with afternoon seabreeze. KISP TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR haze 9-12z. Occasional gusts 15-20kt possible with afternoon seabreeze. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Saturday through Tuesday... .Late Friday Night-Sunday...Mainly VFR with afternoon seabreezes. There is a chance of MVFR or lower in any isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms; mainly to the n/w of NYC. .Sunday night-Monday...MVFR or lower probable with showers and thunderstorms. .Monday night-Tuesday...Becoming VFR Monday night. Seabreezes likely Tuesday afternoon.
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&& .MARINE... The western periphery of Bermuda high pressure remains across the waters tonight through Friday night. Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft levels into Friday night. Southerly winds do increase somewhat Friday afternoon into the evening as the pressure gradient force increases, and ocean seas may approach small craft levels at that time. Expect small craft advisory level conditions across the area waters Saturday through the middle of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible inland this evening and again Friday afternoon and evening. No significant widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. Although widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with the passage of a cold front Monday and Tuesday, widespread flooding is not expected at this time. Localized urban or poor drainage flooding is possible from heavier downpours. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET/FIG NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...MET/FIG HYDROLOGY...MET/FIG

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