Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 240911 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 411 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING WILL PAST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN TRACK UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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GREATEST 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING WHERE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEEPENING. STRONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT SNOWS AIDED BY A COUPLING UPPER JET PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH TOTALS JUST OVER 3 INCHES. FARTHER TO THE SW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PA...THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OVER 5 INCHES. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 HOURS AT TH COAST BEFORE A WARM AIR ALOFT CHANGES PCPN OVER TO A WINTRY MIX WITH PLAIN RAIN LIKELY AT THE COAST BY MID MORNING. FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...A MIX IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFT BEFORE ENDING A SNOW. LATEST DUAL POL DATA SHOWS A CHANGEOVER THE SLEET AND RAIN 10 TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF LI. THIS SHOULD ADVANCE NORTH WITHING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDES EASTERN LI AND SE CT...WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 3 INCHES BASED ON CURRENT RATES. 00Z MODEL RUN PRODUCE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP THROUGH 8 AM...WITH ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LESS AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL AREAS. THE WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW INTERIOR CT SHOULD PUSH CLOSE TO 6 INCHES. TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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PCPN TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S INLAND....AND 25 TO 30 AT THE COAST. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE REFREEZING OF STANDING WATER AND SLUSH. SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SUN SENDS A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR SUN EVE. HIGHS SUN WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH LOWS MON MORNING GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. NW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRES MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRES PUSHES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS MODELS HAVE KEPT THE STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TO A POINT EAST OF CAPE COD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE THIS PATTERN...AND KEEP THE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER IN THAT IT IS A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AS OPPOSED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WRAP INTO THE DEPARTING SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS LOW WILL ALSO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...FORMING A TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. SHOULD THE ECMWF PAN OUT...IT COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS SNOW WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES NEAR THE BENCHMARK. SHOULD THE GFS/NAM PAN OUT...ANY SNOWFALL THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LOWER AND CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEN CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AS WITH STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER SNOWFALL FROM IT IMPACTS THE OKX FORECAST AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN. DRY CONDS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE TEMPS ARE SOME 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT NIGHT. WIND CHILLS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY FROM ZERO TO FIVE BELOW IN SOME AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS. TEMPS WARM UP A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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...HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WINTER EVENT TODAY... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A WINTRY MIX MOVES IN ALONG THE COAST AFTER 11Z AND FARTHER INLAND BY AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW IS LIKELY AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. A TRACE OF ICE AND SLEET IS ALSO LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING BY SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MIXING AND CHANGEOVER AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. .OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. W TO NW WIND 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT. .SUNDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT. .MONDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SNOW POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH SUN AFT...WITH A MARGINAL GALE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT. NLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN. WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS STARTING ON MONDAY. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WATERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. CONDS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF COULD COME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT COULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS HAPPENING. DRY CONDS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LI/NYC SOUTH SHORE BAYS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SAT...LOCALLY TOUCHING MINOR THRESHOLDS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ007>012. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005- 006. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067- 069>075-078>081-176>179. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-353-355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...DS MARINE...MPS/DW HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV/DW

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