Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261458 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1058 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS TODAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WITH TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVERAGE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. OVERALL...THE MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE INTERIOR COMPARED TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE. UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE THE RANGE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE ARE BOTH CONVEYED BY DIAGNOSIS OF MULTIPLE MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS AND THEIR SPATIAL PATTERN. DIURNAL CU ALREADY STARTING TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WOULD EXPECT SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...ORIGINATING FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WATER VAPOR INDICATES A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ERN CANADA DRIFTING WWD. THE MODELS INDICATE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SHRTWV ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYS HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...QPF IS MINIMAL IN THE PROGS. THE NAM INDICATES MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING SWD DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE EVE BEFORE FIZZLING OVER THE CWA. OTHERWISE THE DATA SUGGESTS DRY. WENT WITH A DRY FCST AFT 1Z WITH LOSS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPS...SO WENT WITH A BLEND. MIXING ABV H85 PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND THE TEMP CAP LOOKS TO BE INVOF THE DEVELOPING CLOUD DECK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SCT SHWRS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR MON AS THE UPR LOW CENTER MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH AND SLIDES DOWN THE ERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY ERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE UPR SUPPORT. THE NAM ONLY INDICATES 50-150 J/KG SBCAPE...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES INVOF THE RI BORDER. RI INTO ERN MA GETS ABV 200 J/KG...IF THIS ENTIRE SYS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WWD...THE ISOLD TSTM THREAT COULD EXTEND INTO THE CWA. FOR NOW...TSTMS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FCST. TEMPS AROUND 0C AT H85...BUT DEEP MIXING TO AROUND H8 WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES BLW CLIMO. THE RIBBON OF SHRTWV ENERGY THEN SLIDES EWD MON NGT AND TUE. AS A RESULT...GRADUALLY END PCPN CHCS MON NGT AND KEPT TUE DRY. TEMPS APPROACH CLIMO WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING AND DEEP MIXING CONTINUES ON NW FLOW. UPR RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN ON WED. A DRY FCST WED AND WED NGT. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO AT LEAST THE UPR 60S ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON...BUT THE WEAK PRES FIELD SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY DEEP PENETRATION OF SEA BREEZE FLOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF NOTION OF DEEPENING LOW PRES SOMEWHERE NEAR HATTERAS THU...THEN TRACKING NEWD OVER THE ATLC FRI AND INTO THE N ATLC SAT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN STILL THAT THE SYS MISSES US...WITH PERHAPS SOME SHWRS IN THE WAA PATTERN ON THU. MAINTAINED THE LOW POPS IN THE FCST THRU THE PERIOD...BUT CHANGES WX TYPE TO RAIN FRI-SAT AS IT APPEARS THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NRN EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS OPPOSED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERY PCPN ATTM. TEMPS A BLEND OF PREV AND THE GMOS25. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A WEAK TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REESTABLISHES ITSELF TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN INSTABILITY CU EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE. ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY THIS AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY CT TERMINALS. A N/NE FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING...WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THERMAL TROUGH WITH WINDS VEERING TO S/SW FOR COASTAL TERMINAL AND BACKING NW FOR WESTERN TERMINALS. SEABREEZES LIKELY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE CT AND BEGIN TO DEVELOP FOR NYC/LI COAST. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR KLGA TO SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLE AT KEWR. WINDS THEN BECOME NW THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS...WITH STRATO-CU GRADUALLY SCATTERING OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THU... .MON-MON NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS. .TUE-WED NIGHT...VFR. .THU...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WORKS SLOWLY EAST. MARGINAL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A NLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST THU MAY IMPACT THE WATERS WITH A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC NEAR TERM...JMC/JM SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...NV MARINE...DW HYDROLOGY...JMC

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