Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 141837 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 237 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region moves offshore this afternoon. A cold front approaches from the north Tuesday before dissipating Tuesday night. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday and slides offshore Wednesday night. A slow moving frontal system impacts the region Thursday through Saturday. High pressure then builds back in for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Clouds continue to move in from the southwest this afternoon. Farther upstream are rain showers across the Delmarva and Southeast PA. There is a subtle shortwave in the mid levels with associated positive vorticity advection. This is forecast to move northeast into the region this evening. Temperatures and dewpoints were slightly adjusted to better match observed trends. Clouds were slightly adjusted as well. Highs look to maximize in the low 80s. There is a high risk of rip currents at Suffolk County ocean beaches. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for ocean beaches to the west including those of Nassau and NYC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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The high risk of rip currents continues through early this evening at the Suffolk County ocean beaches. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for ocean beaches to the west including those of Nassau and NYC through early this evening as well. Water vapor showed some convective initiation invof sern AR this mrng, which is where the weak wave which is progged to cross the area tngt supposedly originates. Because of this, a few shwrs were added to the fcst for tngt, keeping in line with the ECMWF, NAM and SREF solns. MU CAPE is only a few hundreds so tstms were not included attm. Humid on Tue with a chance for isold aftn tstms, mostly across western parts of the forecast region. It remains to be seen if the faster GFS or slower ECMWF will verify for timing. The slower timing of the ECMWF may be why the model is fairly dry despite the dpva coming thru, as it misses peak heating. Temps thru the period a blend of the guidance and raw model data due to the increasing llvl moisture.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold front dissipates over the region Tuesday night. An isolated thunderstorm NW of the city early on, otherwise dry weather. High pressure builds in from the NW during Wednesday with rising heights. Sided with the warmer guidance considering an offshore flow into the afternoon hours and 850mb temps of 15-16C. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A frontal boundary will be to our south Wednesday night before pushing north towards us as a warm front. Models are in pretty good agreement that we can get through at least Thursday morning without any showers. Increasing moisture and lift with the approach of the front then bring chances of showers Thursday afternoon before chances increase further Thursday night as the warm front passes through. There may be just enough elevated instability Thursday night for an isolated thunderstorm as well. A wave of low pressure approaches on Friday and Friday night for additional chances of showers and storms. Its associated cold front then maintains chances into Saturday. High pressure behind the front returns drier conditions for Sunday. High temperatures for Thursday through Sunday will be close to normal. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR as high pressure passes east this afternoon and evening. Light SSE at or just under 10 kt into the late afternoon. Low clouds and/or fog appear likely to develop tonight mainly after midnight especially out east, with greatest likelihood at KGON, also possibly at KBDR/ISP. Radar and short term model trends show narrow band of heavier shra arriving across parts of the region overnight. There is uncertainty in how much of this holds together. Will add VCSH, -shra and areas of MVFR overnight and Tuesday to TAFs to reflect increasing trends. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in winds. Low chance for TEMPO IFR cigs toward morning on Tue. KLGA TAF Comments: Chance of MVFR conditions late tonight. KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in winds. Chance of MVFR conditions late tonight. KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence in winds. Chance of MVFR conditions late tonight. KHPN TAF Comments: High confidence in winds. Chance of MVFR conditions late tonight. KISP TAF Comments: High confidence in winds. IFR conditions possible after 15/0400. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday and Tuesday night...Any early morning low clouds and fog out east should burn off quickly, followed by mainly VFR conds. Can`t rule out an isold shower or tstm from NYC metro NW in the afternoon and early evening. .Wednesday and Wednesday night...VFR. .Thursday...MVFR conds possible from NYC metro west, with chance of showers. .Thursday night through Saturday...MVFR or lower flight cat possible, with chance of showers and tstms. Best chance for tstms in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will mainly remain blw sca lvls thru Sat. The exception will be during Tuesday night and Wednesday when seas may be around 5 feet on the ocean waters as a system moving well southeast of the forecast waters generates an east to southeast swell. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through Sunday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080- 081. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC NEAR TERM...JMC/JM SHORT TERM...JMC/JM LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...IRD MARINE...JMC/JC HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC

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