Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231927 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 327 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MIDWEEK...MOVING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. A CLEAR SKY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME CIRRUS COULD STREAM IN. A LIGHT WSW FLOW AND RISING DEW POINTS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING LOW ENOUGH TO FORM FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. LOW TEMPS BELOW NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE CITY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH A MODERATE WSW-SW FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL...EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT THAT WILL BE EXPOSED TO A FLOW OFF THE COLDER WATERS. LOOKS LIKE SHOULD MIX UP TO 850MB WHERE THE TEMP IS FORECAST TO BE 9-10C IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS THEREFORE MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH SPOTTY 80 DEGREE READINGS IN THE CITY AND WEST OF THE HUDSON. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE HIGH CLOUDS THEN THICKEN AND LOWER SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. A LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN UPSTATE NEW YORK. MUCH OF THE LIFT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION AND REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY BE JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MINIMAL CAPE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE. FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WNW-W FLOW BACKS TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION IS AT KBDR/KGON/KJFK WHERE SEABREEZE ALREADY ONGOING. AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BRING SEABREEZE INTO KISP/KLGA BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS OUT...WITH SEABREEZE MORE LIKELY AT KISP OUT OF THE TWO. 15-20KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. SW WINDS UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH TERMINALS OTHER THAN KJFK/KLGA/KEWR BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS 15-20KT POSSIBLE AS WELL. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. .MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WEAR OFF. WSW TO SW WINDS IN GENERAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME NEAR-SHORE GUSTS REACHING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT ENOUGH TO GO WITH SCA HOWEVER. SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD COME CLOSE TO 5 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY 2 OR 4 FT NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RIDGE...AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FORECAST WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE. WITH DEW POINTS RISING OVER THE WATERS MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...SOME NEAR SHORE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. AT THIS TIME THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS THEN REMAINING AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE MOSTLY 20-30 PERCENT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECTING SOME WIND GUSTS OF MOSTLY 15-20 MPH...AND POSSIBLY A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP. THE CURRENT SPS ADDRESSES THIS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MET NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JC/MET FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JC/MET

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