Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 030832 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 432 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE KEEPS US DRY DURING THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSER TO MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT AND EXPECTED TIMING OF SEA BREEZES AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHS THEREFORE GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST CASES. DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEAT ADVISORIES...AND WILL MAINLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE TEMPERATURE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S IN MOST CASES. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI- STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN TAFS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND AT KLGA/KEWR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB AND KHPN BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR THIS MORNING AND A SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. .FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SEAS COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY. A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE. LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JC/MPS HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS

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