Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 041445 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 945 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS OFFSHORE TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WEAKENS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG HIGH REEMERGING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST LOW WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A NOR EASTER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAINFALL COMING TO AN END. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE AROUND MIDDAY...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH STILL WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...COLDER AIR WILL TAKE AWHILE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER...AND DEEPER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALSO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND HOW HEAVY THE PRECIPITATION IS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE A WET ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF NYC...ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A FARTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW LONDON CONNECTICUT. WITH THE COLD AIR SLOWER TO MOVE IN HAVE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WEST AND NEAR 3 INCHES FAR EASTERN AREAS...EXTREME EASTERN NEW LONDON...AND MONTAUK POINT. ANY FARTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD RESULT IN FAR EASTERN REGIONS APPROACHING 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TREND TO COLDER WEATHER AS THE JET STREAM IN THE UPPER LEVELS PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES APPEAR PHASED ACROSS THE GULF AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. THE JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASES UP TO 160-190 KTS. THE MID LEVELS HAVE SW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SPLIT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE MOVE ACROSS ALONG A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE SAME AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP. THE FIRST ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A NOR`EASTER ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE OTHER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE FROM A CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN BETWEEN IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER COULD HAVE OR IF IT JUST GLANCES THE REGION ON ITS NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. OTHER WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOW BEHIND IT. THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE MORE CHANCES OF SNOW BUT A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT OF LOWS SO THE FORECAST AMOUNTS CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER THOUGH AND WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD VERY WELL TREND A FEW COLDER THAN CURRENTLY CONVEYED. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED E OF NYC METRO TERMINALS...AND ALL BUT KGON. FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR...THEN VFR BEHIND IT. EXPECT CIGS 030-050 FOR BULK OF NYC METRO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL NWRLY WIND SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSING SEVERAL HOURS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KT. EXPECT GUSTS TO END BY 16-17Z FOR NYC TERMINALS. THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS MAY BACK TO WNW FOR SEVERAL HOURS. RAIN DEVELOPS AFTER 03Z EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS MAY END +/- AN HOUR OR TWO OF FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS MAY END +/- AN HOUR OR TWO OF FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS MAY END +/- AN HOUR OR TWO OF FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS MAY END +/- AN HOUR OR TWO OF FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS MAY END +/- AN HOUR OR TWO OF FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS MAY END +/- AN HOUR OR TWO OF FORECAST. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE +/- AN HOUR OR TWO OF FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .FRIDAY...IFR IN LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY EAST OF NYC METRO DURING THE MORNING. WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT. .FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. .MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE IN CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. && .MARINE... WIND AND SEAS ON TRACK...ONLY ADJUSTED CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY AND INTO LATE TONIGHT. TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING SOME GUSTS MAY BE NEAR 25 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST. THEN SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER AND DEEPER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS. SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS MAY ALSO BE AROUND 25 KT FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FOR EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TREND TO BELOW SCA LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDING IN. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SCA WILL BE MORE PROBABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME. && .HYDROLOGY... TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 POSSIBLE. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED SINCE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SNOW. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/MET NEAR TERM...JC/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...DS/GS MARINE...JM/MET HYDROLOGY...JM/MET

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.