Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 032028 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 328 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LIGHT TO MODERATE OVERRUNNING SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW COVER AND COLD SURROUNDING WATERS. THE TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE THE SAME AS BEFORE BUT DID EXTEND THROUGH EASTERN SUFFOLK AS THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AREAWIDE EVEN THOUGH SNOW TOTALS THERE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END AND AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS. MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WOULD BE BLOCKING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ALLOWING FOR VALLEYS TO TRAP SOME COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE. THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN BUT THEY OVERALL SHOW A CONSENSUS KEEPING THE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WILL ALL HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING FOR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MORE ON THE LIGHT SIDE CONSIDERING THE AREA IS NOT WITHIN THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ENHANCED LIFT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LIKELY ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPS RISE WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT RAIN LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL. AGAIN GMOS AND NAM12 BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW LOW. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO 1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT 700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE. SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEREAFTER...MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS (ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS MODERATING BUT STILL REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. SOME LIGHT RA/SN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH LATE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO EARLY EVENING. PRIMARILY IFR OR LOWER EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER 00-02Z. SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX FROM SW TO NE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THEN RAIN OVERNIGHT. SSE WINDS BCMG SW-W OVERNIGHT. LLWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE WITHIN 00Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE WITHIN 00Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE WITHIN 2230Z-02Z. ANY ICE ACCRETION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ICE ACCRETION OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ICE ACCRETION OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF AROUND 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: RUNWAY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET OF 1 OR 2 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN -RA. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...IFR WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW LATE EVENING/NEAR MIDNIGHT. CHC N GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THURSDAY. .THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR THURS NIGHT. NW GUSTS 15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. .SAT/SUN...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SCA CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...BUILDING FETCH WILL LEAD TO EVENTUAL RETURN OF SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN. SCA HOISTED FOR OCEAN STARTING 02Z FOR EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND 05Z FOR REST OF OCEAN. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO COLD WATERS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUT VERTICAL TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO BE OCCASIONALLY MIXED DOWN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AROUND A TOTAL 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF IT BEING IN FORM OF WINTER PRECIP. SOME PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED WITH STEADY MODERATE RAIN THAT FALLS DUE TO EXCESS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWPACK. IF MORE RAIN IS FORECAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER THAN FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING. 1/3 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ009>012. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CTZ008>012. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004- 006-103>108. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.
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&& $$ AVIATION...JC

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