Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 181736 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY. THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN UPSTATE NEW YORK AT MID MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THIS WEAK COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE PROVIDED LIFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS...SO FIGURING HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SEEN YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAD ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FLOW ARRIVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THINKING IS THAT CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT CROSS SECTIONS WOULD IMPLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY KIND OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OR DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH TO AROUND 900MB WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 7C...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THEN END UP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED WITH REGARDS TO THE H5 FLOW AT LEAST THROUGH SUN. OVERALL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW BEYOND THE WEEKEND. AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NW US AND A DIGGING TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT ON MONDAY AND INTO THE ERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE QPF DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EWD...THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS ARE CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 12Z AND 00Z OP EC RUNS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MON. WILL STILL KEEP THIS IN MIND HOWEVER OVER THE COMING DAYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SAT AND MON AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...NEAR NORMAL MON NIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. WINDS BACKING TO W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KGON. SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY MOVED THRU KBDR. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEABREEZE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. .SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN 3 TO 4 FT AT MID MORNING AND NORTHERLY WIND ALSO BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. A 3 TO 4 FT SE SWELL REMAINS ON THE OCEAN. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT...HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE. BETTER CHANCES OF 25 KT GUSTS OCCURRING OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS. AS FOR SEAS...LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE FETCH BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS SUBSIDE. THEREFORE...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS OVER HERE EVER REACH 5 FT. THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY TO BUILD SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT FOR ENOUGH OF A PORTION OF THE WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A SCA ON THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350- 353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...MMD MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...MET

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