Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271732 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 132 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION TODAY...AND OFFSHORE ON TUE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY...SWINGING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND DEEPENING FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGH CLOUDS FROM SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC TAP AND MIDWEST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SPREADS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... A WARMING TREND AS WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND PICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. HIGH CLOUDS BKN-OVC AT TIMES...BUT BECAUSE OF OPACITY FCST INDICATES MOSTLY SUNNY. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING...SO THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WHICH COULD BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FCST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ AND THE INTERIOR. MOISTURE AND FORCING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL W OF THE CWA SO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AS WELL. THE JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA AND WEAKENS. THE COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA OFFSHORE. THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT START TO MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH COULD DISSIPATE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER MOISTURE LIMITED FRONT ACCORDING TO NAM AND GFS MODELS. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SHOW ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA THROUGH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THESE MODELS ALREADY SHOWING SOME WEAK LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE...KEPT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NYC...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH SHARPENING AND APPROACHING THE REGION AS JET STREAM REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG SOUTHERN END OF FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS. DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE. MODELS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH TO WEST OF REGION FRIDAY AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL U.S. BUT VARY WITH POSITION OF SFC FRONT. THE UNCERTAINTY HAS RIPPLE EFFECTS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHING CAN BE TRACED BACK TO UPSTREAM RIDGE AND WEST OF THERE...YET ANOTHER TROUGH. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFERENCES FROM FORECAST TO FORECAST...PARTICULARLY WITH TIMING...UNTIL THE UPSTREAM FEATURES GET BETTER RESOLVED. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAM FEED MOISTURE INTO THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF IT BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. WITHOUT MUCH SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD PROGRESS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EMERGE AND SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IN THE PERIOD OF MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC WITH RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. THE SOURCES OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FROM THE CAROLINAS AND ALSO ANOTHER FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE...MORE GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH AMPLIFICATION WITH SHORTENING WAVELENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND JET STREAM STILL SOUTH OF REGION. THE FEATURES TRANSLATE EAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WARMING TREND COMES TO A CLOSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WNW FLOW BETWEEN 7-12 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN...BCMG LIGHT AND VRB THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. S FLOW AFTR 12Z TOMORROW...GENERALLY 8-13 KTS. OCNL GUSTS MAY MIX IN BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THE MOMENT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN 290-310 (TRUE) THROUGH 22Z...BCMG 260-280 (TRUE) FOR THE AFTN/EVENING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN 300-330 (TRUE) THROUGH 21Z...BCMG 270-290 (TRUE) FOR THE AFTN. BRIEF GUSTS PSBL THRU 19Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN 280-320 (TRUE) THRU THE AFTN. VERY SPORADIC GUSTS TO 16 KTS PSBL THRU 20Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS PSBL THRU 19Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. .TUES-TUES NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. .WED-WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL WITH -SHRA. WSW TO NW WIND SHIFT WED NIGHT. OCNL GUSTS 15-20 KTS PSBL. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...GENERALLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL WITH PCPN. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN TYPE/AMT. WNW FLOW 10-15G20KT INTERIOR...15-20G25-30KT AT THE COAST SAT.
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&& .MARINE...
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CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. RETURN FLOW ON TUE AS THE HIGH DRIFTS E OVER THE ATLANTIC...BUT WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SOUTHERLY FETCH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SCA SEAS ON OCEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WED NIGHT WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW SCA BEFORE DAYBREAK THU. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA THEREAFTER UNTIL SAT WHEN OCEAN SEAS OF AT LEAST 5-7 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE. REGARDING WINDS...THERE COULD BE SOME SCA WIND GUSTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT. OTHER WATERS WILL BE BELOW SCA FOR WINDS. THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SCA WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT WED AND WED NIGHT. OTHER WATERS CLOSER TO 20 KT. SUB SCA THEREAFTER UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE WEEKEND...WHICH LOOKS TO BE A ROUGH PERIOD FOR THE AREA WATERS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM NEAR TERM...BC/JMC/JM SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...SEARS MARINE...JMC/JM HYDROLOGY...JM

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