Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 041107 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 707 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST 6Z MODEL RUN ALONG WITH HI RES HOURLY MODELS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE RAIN REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NW ZONES THIS MORNING...LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD. RAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT STILL BELIEVE THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE A FEW DROPS AT TIMES TODAY. OVERALL...NOT A WASHOUT WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING DRY. SIDED WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS...WITH UPPER 60S NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS IN MOST PLACES...BUT WITH H7-8 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LAGGING ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE FCST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE FOR THE EARLY EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START...THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN NYC METRO AND 55-6 ELSEWHERE PER A GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH AFTERNOON FAIR WX CU DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SFC THERMAL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS ARE CLOSE OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS...WITH LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM/DRY DAY FOR MONDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING MID WEEK...FIRST WITH A WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP FROM THE SW...THEN WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE THUNDER FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE/WED ARE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. MORE SUNSHINE ON TUE COULD PUSH TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FCST. WED SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THU INTO THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDS ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT EAST OR EVEN SE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. AS SUCH...WIND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER TONIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY BRIEF...EXCEPT POSSIBLY AT KSWF. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. .TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY...AND DEPARTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS THEY BACK TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...A FEW GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 25 KTS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT POST ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OCEAN SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS. THE EASTERN WATERS MAY BUILD BRIEFLY TO 5 FEET LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. SEAS/WAVES 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... GENERALLY 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE TODAY NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ELSEWHERE. THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT PART OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT COULD REMAIN DRY. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST ON TUE...THEN WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEARBY WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...JC/GOODMAN/PW AVIATION...PW MARINE...PW HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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