Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 161747 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 147 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS. LOWERED HIGH TEMP FCST SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS. RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WITH MIXING TO AROUND 3500 FT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OR FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD THE FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEING REALIZED ACROSS THE CITY AND ADJACENT ZONES. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA ON THE SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR HAS BEEN DROPPED NOW THAT FREQUENT GUSTS ARE BELOW 25 KT. ON THE OCEAN...JUST OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17: EWR - 30 IN 1980 FORECAST LOW - 33 BDR - 30 IN 1962 FORECAST LOW - 31 NYC - 28 IN 1875 FORECAST LOW - 34 LGA - 32 IN 1980 FORECAST LOW - 36 JFK - 33 IN 1980 FORECAST LOW - 35 ISP - 30 IN 2005 FORECAST LOW - 30 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CTZ009>012. NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET NEAR TERM...JC/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...SEARS AVIATION...DS MARINE...JC/SEARS/MET HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET CLIMATE...

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