Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 161124 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 724 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE VICINITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MID AND UPPER LIFT EXITS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB LAYER LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AND WITHOUT A STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THINKING IS THAT THE AFTERNOON ENDS UP WITH CLOUDS OUTWEIGHING BLUE SKY FOR MOST SPOTS. A FULL-SUN AFTERNOON WOULD PRODUCE MID-UPPER 70S FOR THE WARMEST AREAS GIVEN 8-9C 850MB TEMPS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH NAM MOS...BUT CONSIDERING THE CLOUD COVER...WENT WITH A NEAR-EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS AS THE MAVS LOOKED A LITTLE TOO COOL. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...CLEARING OUT THE SKY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN COMBINE WITH THE CLEAR SKY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL. LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. 850MB TEMP FALLS ABOUT A DEGREE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ENABLE THE WARMEST SPOTS INLAND TO REACH THE MID 70S...WITH AROUND 70/LOW 70S FOR THE OTHER AREAS. AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US. HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. THEN CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS FOR DETAILS. WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VARY AS THE TROUGH NEARS. A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TO THE NW. SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...HOWEVER SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TODAY. NO RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/24 NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...PW MARINE...JC/24 HYDROLOGY...JC/24

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