Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271502 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1002 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ON SUNDAY AND THEN STALL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH LATER THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPING THAT WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF WARMER AIR... WITH H8 TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 6C BY EVENING. GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. FCST HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S STILL SUPPORTED BY 12Z OKX RAOB ADJUSTED FOR DAYTIME HEATING UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SW WILL DAMPEN AS IT MOVES E TODAY ALTHOUGH REMNANT ENERGY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THEN CONTINUE EWD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT AND SUN. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN THEN STALLS S OF LONG ISLAND WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDING ALONG IT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH WITH CHC SHOWERS SUN AS IT MOVES ACROSS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRES THAT RIDES ALONG THE FRONT TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HOWEVER...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...P-TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON MON...THEN A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERALL...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN A TREND TOWARD MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...ONE BIG FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S ON MON WITH A MAGNITUDE OF AT LEAST 1050 MB. THIS WILL TRANSLATE SEWD AND THE VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THE TIME IT GETS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...HOWEVER WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS SHORTWAVES ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN CANADA TRANSPORTS SOME OF THIS AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. GFS...GEFS AND SREF ENS MEMBERS ARE INDICATING THAT PORTIONS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND COULD BE BRUSHED BY SOME LIGHT PCPN...WHICH WOULD FALL AS SNOW...LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS ANOTHER WAVE PASSES TO THE S. HAVE ADDED SCHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WSW SFC FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT...BACKING TO S/SW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH LOWERING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW PROB FOR MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KSWF IN -SHRA. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED... .SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC -SHRA. -SHSN POSSIBLE AT KSWF SUN NIGHT. .MON-WED...VFR. && .MARINE... SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SCA NOT ISSUED...BUT MARGINAL 5 FT SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS WILL BE TUE-TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...DS

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