Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 192005 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 305 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure passes well to the north this afternoon as a weak cold front north of the area dissipates. Another cold front moves through the area tonight. High pressure then builds in Monday before shifting offshore on Tuesday. A warm front will approach Tuesday night followed by a weak cold front becoming nearly stationary in our vicinity Wednesday through Friday. A separate cold front approaches from the west Friday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A weak cold front into the Lower Hudson Valley and Massachusetts was slowly weakening and is expected to dissipate as low pressure tracks well to the north. A band of mid and high clouds remains along the front with little movement. Winds did shift to the northwest and temperatures along the coast have risen, with a record set at Islip. See climate section below. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Stronger cold advection occurs tonight with a stronger cold front moving through. Again, moisture is lacking so expect a dry passage. For Monday, surface high pressure builds in with slow ridging aloft. Sunny with cooler temperatures, but still above normal. MAV and NAM MOS look too warm given temps at the top of the mixed layer, so went with SuperBlend. Good radiational cooling conditions then set up for late Monday night with a clear sky and light to calm winds as the surface ridge axis shifts into the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure ridge drifts offshore during Tuesday. Overrunning PCPN ahead of a warm front to the west may sneak in by late over the westernmost zones. Otherwise, expect increasing clouds with highs near normal. CHC PoPs for Tuesday night as a warm front/cold front combination approach the region. Good model agreement in that the elevated warm layer will be warm enough for primarily rain, except for a chance of sleet across the northern zones during the evening. With clouds increasing and warm air advection with a lack of a cold air damming pattern, thinking is that temps remain above freezing through the night everywhere. Have therefore removed the chance of freezing rain across the northern zones. With the trailing cold front departing in the morning, it looks like a dry day for most if not all of Wednesday. The exception would be lingering chances of rain over the eastern zones in the morning. Cold air advection behind the front is not strong, and temperatures are expected to be well above normal. Will maintain previous PCPN forecast for Thursday/Thursday night at this time, although might need to include low chance PoPs in association with a weakening cold front. Did however bump up high temp forecast based on temps aloft. An onshore flow will keep coastal sections cooler, but all areas once again will have high temps above normal. A low pressure system then approaches late in the week with increasing chances of rainfall. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure builds in tonight with winds becoming more northerly. Winds will briefly decrease tonight before becoming gusty again by morning. Anticipate VFR conditions through the TAF period with little cloud cover tomorrow. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Monday...VFR. NNW gusts near 20kt. .Monday night-Tuesday evening...VFR. .Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR possible in rain. .Thursday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Westerly winds were a little weaker than forecast as low pressure well to the north remains and slowly weakens. Also seas were running up to a foot lower as a result of the weaker winds. Winds and seas remain below Small Craft levels through this evening. A cold front will push across the area waters this evening and overnight, building seas to 4 ft and providing some occasional gusts to 25 kt late tonight into Monday morning. Will hold off on any headlines at this time, thinking that any SCA conditions may only last for a few hours, if they occur at all. No precipitation is expected with the frontal passage. Following the cold frontal passage and as Canadian high pressure builds southeast across the area. The next potential chance of marine impacts will be late in the week on Friday/Saturday as winds strengthen ahead of an approaching low pressure system. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the next 7 days. && .CLIMATE... The following are record high temperatures for today, and forecast highs: Central Park....66 (1997).....67 LaGuardia Apt...65 (1997).....67 JFK Apt.........66 (1997).....65 Islip Apt.......60 (1997).....64 Newark Apt......66 (1997).....67 Bridgeport......61 (1997).....59 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MD NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...JC/MD AVIATION...MD MARINE...BC/MD/MET HYDROLOGY...JC/MD CLIMATE...

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